Monday, June 30, 2008

Euro Cup 2008 Soccer Final

Toy boy Archibald proved he's not just a pretty face and succulent midnight snack for Lady G by correctly prognosticating Spain's triumph over Germany.

For the tournament, Archibald finished 11 for 15 with his predictions or 73% correct.

Very impressive, but a sample size of 15 is too small to prove anything (as I remind Archibald the morning after his birthday after getting my kit off the night before to "Simply the Best" before giving him his birthday gift). My advice to Archibald: Don't quit your day job.

After all, 73% correct was only good enough to finish tied for 12th out of 69 contestants in Archibald's non-profit office pool. (Archibald has insisted that I report his limp joke that to pass the time between now and the NFL season his next project will be to organize a 69 contest with 69 contestants. Archibald, that is so bad.)

We'll see whether Archibald can back up his soccer football prowess 2 years from now with World Cup 2010 predictions.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Archibald's Euro Cup Final Pick

Lady G's gorgeous toy boy Archibald was perfect with his Euro Cup soccer semi-final picks taking him to 10 out of 14 for the tournament so far. In the Sunday final, Swami Archibald is calling Spain over Germany.

Sadly, it looks like Archibald will finish out of the money in the non-profit, 50%-to-charity office pool he entered. Archibald did well, but to win a 69-person pool you have to come much closer to perfection.

It's a good thing for Archibald I've been with fewer than 69 men in my life or I'd be holding him to a much higher standard in the boudoir.

Lady G is holding steady at 4th for picking winners at

http://www.crowdpicks.com/

Monday, June 23, 2008

Archibald's Euro Cup Semi-Final Picks

Official Lady Godiva toy boy Archibald went 50/50 with his Euro Cup soccer 1/4 final picks. Portugal and Netherlands went down in upsets. But, Archibald forecast Turkey's upset win over Croatia correctly as well as Spain over Italy.

In the semi-final matches, Archibald's crystal ball says:

Germany over Turkey
Spain over Russia

Archibald entered a non-profit, 50%-to-charity office pool in which he had to pick 8 countries. He has all 4 semi-finalists. At the end of Thursday last week, he was still 17 points behind. But, he picked up 11 points from Friday to Sunday and he is guaranteed 14 more points. So, he thinks there's a good chance that he will finish in the top 3 and walk away with some winnings.

If so, I've told him there will be no more access to Lady Godiva's goodies until he uses part of his prize to take yours truly out to dinner. Since Archibald's idea of fine dining is Medieval Feast, I have laid down the condition that the restaurant has to specialize in food of the Euro Cup champion. I'm hoping for a Spanish victory, since I love paella. I have promised Archibald to treat him to Medieval Feast when England wins the World Cup and to ride there on a horse wearing the birthday suit made famous by the original Lady G. That's a promise I'm not expecting to have to make good in my lifetime.

I am chuffed to report moving up from 5th to 4th for picking winners at http://www.crowdpicks.com/

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Archibald's Euro Cup 1/4 Final Picks

Godiva toy boy Archibald is chuffed to report having forecast 6 of 8 Euro Cup soccer 1/4 finalists. Only France and Poland disappointed.

Archibald's 1/4 final picks:

Portugal over Germany
Turkey over Croatia
Netherlands over Russia
Spain over Italy (for the 1st time since 1920 in a match that counts)

And I am rapt to report being ranked 5th for picking winners at

http://www.crowdpicks.com/

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

NBA 2008 Wrap-up

As an Englishwoman, there's no earthly reason for Lady Godiva to be so rapt (see http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/rapt) by the 17th Celtic championship.

Given my dim view of Kobe, I guess it's a case of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".

My results for the 2008 NBA playoffs against the spread:

All my picks 47 wins 37 losses 2 ties (56%)
My overdog picks 43-32-2
My underdog picks 4-5
Spread a factor: 3-9-2

Lady G can't complain about 56% over 86 games, but before I get carried away with my NBA expertise I have to recognise that a plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy led the way at 49-35-2 (58%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 48-36-2 (57%).

I racked up a 58% winning record with my NCAA March madness picks this year.

For my basketall picks, I have been following a system based on historical data from regular season games showing a statistically significant tendency for "heavy" underdogs to beat the spread and a statistically insignificant trend favouring "light" overdogs.

But, in both NBA and NCAA playoffs this year, "heavy" underdogs performed poorly while all overdogs ruled. I would be very interested if anyone out there can point me to long-term data on NBA and NCAA playoff results against the spread. One hypothesis would be that playoff results differ from regular season results against the spread.

Monday, June 16, 2008

NBA Final Game 6 Pick + Baseball/Soccer

Green Lady G is sticking with Boston -4.5 over LA in game 6.

I’m very nervous. I would dread facing that dastardly Kobe in a game 7.

My results so far against the spread:

All my picks 46 wins 37 losses 2 ties (55%)
My overdog picks 42-32-2
My underdog picks 4-5
Spread a factor: 3-9-2

A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy still leads the way at 48-35-2 (58%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 47-36-2 (56%).

Through Sunday, 15 June, we now have two series of inter-league baseball games in the books. American League (AL) teams have won 57% of all games or 47 or against only 36 victories for National League (NL) teams.

I hear knowledgable Godivans asking: ``What else is new?`` AL teams have dominated inter-league play for the past several years.

What is interesting is how well you would be doing with a strategy of backing all AL teams in a non-profit office pool with points based on odds posted for fools who bet on baseball. You would be +6.3 after 83 games. If the fools who bet on baseball were correctly valuing AL dominance, we should see our net point balance gravitate to 0 over the course of an entire season. If we can maintain a positive point balance, we will have circumstantial evidence that fools who bet on baseball are not correctly valuing AL dominance.

Groups A and B are over in Euro Cup 2008 soccer football. Toy boy Archibald correctly picked three of the four qualifiers for the ¼ finals – Portugal, Turkey and Germany. He underestimated Croatia and overrated Poland. Archibald’s not perfect (far from it), but so far, so pretty good (in both his Euro Cup 2008 pool and as Lady Godiva’s consort).

Friday, June 13, 2008

NBA Final Game 5 and Interleague MLB Advice

Happy Friday the 13th to one and all. My approach to warding off the bad luck gremlins today is to stay indoors until midnight. It’s 90 degrees (Fahrenheit, over 30 Celsius) in Toronto today and we don’t have AC, so I’m naked as a jaybird. Toy boy Archibald, who’s staying home to keep me company, calls me his BJ bird because I’m an English lass -- a bird in English lad lingo -- and the only thing I’m wearing is a Toronto Blue Jays cap.

The Green Lady G is sticking with Boston +6.5 over LA in game 5.


Strange game 4 -- I thought I was certain to lose even with +7.5 and the Celtics came back to win outright. LA scored more points in the 1st 1/4 than in the entire 2nd 1/2. You won't see that every day, especially not in the championship series.

My results so far against the spread:

All my picks 45 wins 37 losses 2 ties (55%)
My overdog picks 42-32-2
My underdog picks 3-5
Spread a factor: 2-9-2

A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 48-34-2 (58%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 47-35-2 (57%).

If you’ve entered a friendly non-profit office pool picking major league baseball (MLB) winners over the course of the season, there’s no better strategy than backing all American League (AL) teams in inter-league contests. In weekend 1 of 2008 interleague play last month, AL teams won 22 of 41 games or 54% despite the fact that National League (NL) teams hosted 8 of 14 series. If your pool points are based on odds posted for those fools who bet on baseball, you would have been +2.2 after 41 games. Let’s stick with the all-AL approach for the rest of the season and see where we end up.

Toy boy Archibald finally tasted defeat with his Euro Cup 2008 soccer football picks. Croatia has qualified from Group B for the ¼ finals and only one of his picks – Germany or Poland – has a chance to qualify and there’s even a slim chance that both will be heading for home after the final group matches.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

NBA Final Game 4 Pick

Lady G stands for Lady Green sticking with Boston +7.5 over LA.

I was chuffed to win on points in game 3 with +9.5. It may just be our poor Canadian coverage of hoops, but our national newspaper posted the initial line for game 3 as LA -6.5. When I saw the spread at 9.5, I didn't have the heart to back Kobe giving that many points. He may not be very likable, but even I have to admit that Kobe carried the Lakers last night.

Taking Boston +7.5, I'm definitely letting heart rule head -- a mistake I swore I would never repeat after previous toy boy Reginald. But, at least in this case the stakes aren't as great playing a non-profit pool with pocket money on the line compared to the significant financial and emotional losses I suffered untangling myself from that no-good Reginald.

My results so far against the spread:

All my picks 44 wins 37 losses 2 ties (54%)
My overdog picks 42-32-2
My underdog picks 2-5
Spread a factor: 2-9-2

A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 48-33-2 (59%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 47-34-2 (58%).

Current toy boy Archibald remains unbeaten with his Euro Cup 2008 soccer football picks -- 16 points so far in his non-profit office pool with each player choosing 8 countries and earning 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw and points + or - for net goal difference.

Monday, June 9, 2008

NBA Final Game 3 Pick

Boston +9.5 over LA is tickling MiLady's G spot even though my head says take the Lakers at home. I justify going with my heart because my head is also guessing that the spread may be inflated by the Laker legions.

My results so far against the spread:

All my picks 43 wins 37 losses 2 ties (54%)
My overdog picks 42-32-2
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-9-2

A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 48-32-2 (60%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 47-33-2 (59%).

Toy boy Archibald undefeated so far with his Euro Cup 2008 soccer football picks. Just as one swallow does not make a spring (or a lasting relationship), two perfect days does not guarantee victory in a picking winners pool. Nevertheless, it's always nice to get off to a good start in a picking winners pool, new relationship and everything else.

Friday, June 6, 2008

NBA Final Game 2 Pick

BOSTON -2 over LA is still tickling MiLady's G spot.

My results so far against the spread:

All my picks 42 wins 37 losses 2 ties (53%)
My overdog picks 41-32-2
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-9-2

A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 47-32-2 (59%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 46-33-2 (58%).

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Archibald's Euro Cup Soccer Picks

Just for fun, here are toy boy Archibald's picks for the countries that will survive the qualifying round to reach the elite 8 of the Euro Cup 2008 soccer football tournament:

Group A: Portugal and Turkey
Group B: Germany and Poland
Group C: France and Netherlands
Group D: Spain and Russia

Wouldn't you know it? I cross the Atlantic to get away from footie-mad men and end up shacked up with Canada's biggest footie fanatic.

Also, check out my review of the Britaly Inn at beautiful Niagara on the Lake (NotL), Ontario where Archibald and I recently spent a supercalifragilisticexpealidocious weekend.

http://www.tripadvisor.com/ShowUserReviews-g154999-d490391-r16406840-Britaly_Bed_Breakfast-Niagara_on_the_Lake_Ontario.html

The Britaly in NotL would be great home base for a road trip to see your favourite NFL team take on the Buffalo Bills. NotL is well under an hour's drive from Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

NBA Final Game 1 Pick

BOSTON -2.5 over LA tickles Lady G's fancy.

My results so far against the spread:

All my picks 41 wins 37 losses 2 ties (52.5%)

My overdog picks 40-32-2
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-9-2

A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 46-32-2 (59%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 45-33-2 (57.5%).