NFL Week 9 Picks + World Series Post-Mortem

Pick	+/-	Against
Houston	+4.5	MINNIE
CINCI	+7.5	Jaxville
KC	+8.5	T Bay
Baltimore	+1.5	CLEVE
BUFFALO	-5.5	NY Jets
ST. LOUIS	+3	Arizona
Detroit	+13	CHICAGO
TENN	-5.5	G Bay
Miami	+3	DENVER
OAKLAND	+3	Atlanta
NY G	-9	Dallas
SEATTLE	+6.5	Philly
New E	+5.5	INDY
Pitts	+2	WASH

Week 8 results:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie
All	5	8	1
Home Faves		2
Home Dogs	2	1
Road Dogs	3	5	1
Best Bets	1	2
Readers' Choice	Pittsburgh -2.5

Season so far:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie	%
All	51	61	4	46%
Home Faves	14	17	1	45%
Home Dogs	15	16	1	48%
Road Dogs	21	27	2	44%
Road Faves	1	1		50%
Best Bets	11	13	2	46%
Readers' Choice	2	5	1	31%

Comments:

5-6-1 against the spread with my base package of underdog picks in week 8 and 0-2 with overdogs. For the past year and a half, I've lost my gift for identifying overdog winners against the spread and have trailed the winning percentage of a plain-vanilla all-underdogs strategy over a period when the all-underdogs approach has failed to record its usual premium performance based on the historical trend. Here's hoping my system comes right for underdogs on the whole and for my 3 "value" overdogs in week 9.

World Series:

The Phillies overcame the National League (NL) talent deficit to take the World Series decisively 4 games to 1. It's good for spectator interest in the World Series for the NL to win every now and then. And indeed, the NL has won 2 of the past 3 World Series and 4 of the past 8.

Nevertheless, the full record of recent inter-league play offers conclusive proof of American League (AL) superiority. The AL has won 7 of the past 11 World Series and 10 of the past 16. Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won the last 11 all-star games to reach a decision and 17 of the last 20. Plus the AL sports a 57% record against National League (NL) opponents in over 1,000 regular season inter-league contests from 2005 through this season.

After factoring in the World Series, an all-AL strategy for the regular season, All-Star game and World Series still generated a net gain of +30.75 pool points over 258 inter-league contests in a non-profit 2008 baseball pool with points for each game based on the posted odds. Philadelphia's victory in a best 4-of-7 series came against odds almost as long and tall as Lady G herself. Until the NL gets back to even over a full season of regular season contests, continue picking the AL in your non-profit baseball pools.

NFL Week 8 and World Series Picks

Pick	+/-	Against
Oakland	+7	BALT
NEW O	+3	San D
NY JETS	-12.5	kc
MIAMI	+1.5	Buffalo
T Bay	+3.5	DALLAS
Atlanta	+8.5	PHILLY
St. Louis	+7	NEW E
Arizona	+4.5	CAROLINA
DETROIT	+7.5	Washton
Cleveland	+6.5	JAXVILLE
PITTS	-2.5	NY Giants
Seattle	+4.5	SAN FRAN
Cinci	+10	HOUSTON
Indy	+4	TENN

Week 7 results:

Picks	Wins	Losses
All	9	5
Home Faves	1
Home Dogs	3	1
Road Dogs	4	4
Road Faves	1
Best Bets	4
Readers' Choice	Cleveland +7

Season so far:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie	%
All	46	53	3	47%
Home Faves	14	15	1	48%
Home Dogs	13	15	1	47%
Road Dogs	18	22	1	45%
Road Faves	1	1		50%
Best Bets	10	11	2	48%
Readers' Choice	2	4	1	36%

Comments:

That's more like it. 7-5 against the point spread with my base package of underdog picks and 2-0 with my "value" overdogs.

Baseball World Series Pick:

Take Tampa +1.05 in game 1 and in all subsequent games both home and away if you're in a baseball pool that finishes with the World Series.

Taking the American League (AL) in inter-league contests has been the most reliable pick in all of sports over the past few years and the World Series is no different. The AL has won 7 of the past 10 World Series and 10 of the past 15.

Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won the last 11 all-star games to reach a decision and 17 of the last 20.

There haven't been enough all-star and World Series games to rule out AL dominance as part of random variability. But, the record from over 1,000 inter-league regular season games over the past 4 years provides clear evidence that the AL has a clear majority of the best players in baseball. The AL sports a 57% record against National League (NL) opponents from 2005 through this season.

This year AL teams were especially dominating winning 62% of all inter-league games hosted in AL parks and 56% of all games when travelling to NL parks. AL dominance playing in NL parks is particularly impressive. NL home teams won 55% of contests hosting NL opponents, but only 44% against AL visitors.

Evidence from this season indicates that oddsmakers may be underestimating AL dominance, particularly when AL teams visit NL parks. Playing in a non-profit baseball pool similar to toy boy Archibald's office pool with points awarded based on the posted odds, you would have earned a net gain of 24.3 points this year by backing all AL teams visiting NL opponents and 8.8 points picking all AL teams hosting NL visitors.

Take Tampa and stick to Tampa in all games if you are playing in a non-profit baseball pool that includes picking World Series games. Tampa's not a glamour team with any history, so the bettors and oddsmakers may underestimate just how much better Tampa is than Philadelphia. Sure, there's a small chance of the Phillies getting enough breaks to win a 7-game series. But, the odds are stacked in Tampa's favour. The talent imbalance between leagues is so great that even mediocre AL teams like Toronto or Cleveland could probably beat the NL champion Phillies more often than not.

Whatever happens, Tampa's management team can take a well-deserved bow for building a champion the right way through draft picks. I live in Canada where we're green with envy at Tampa's success while our Toronto Blue Jays go nowhere under the misrule of owner Ted (Only Know How to Run a Monopoly and Can't Handle Competition) Rogers and general mismanager JP (Legend in My Own Mind) Ricciardi.

Canadian Election Post-Mortem

The good people of Canada ignored my advice and re-elected Prime Minister Darth Harper.

It's interesting how similar Harper and Richard Nixon are – both intelligent men, respected but not loved by the public, and both so seething with resentment at eastern liberal elites that they concluded that the laws of morality and common decency do not apply to their dark practice of the art of politics. Nixon was eventually brought down by his evil scheming. I fear that Harper will end up as "the guy who gets away with it" (to borrow a phrase from the great film LA Confidential.)

I participated in a for-charity office election pool organized by official Godiva toy boy Archibald. The winner is the person to come closest to the final outcome in the next House of Commons.

Pending recounts, here is how I did:

Party	Godiva Guess	Actual Result	Difference
Conservatives	125 seats	143	18
Liberals	86	77	9
Bloc Quebec	55	49	6
NDP	41	37	4
Others	1	2	1
Total	308	308	38

 

As you can see, I didn't come close or even reasonably close (reminds me of my boring past life with ex-boyfriend Reginald).

Canadian Election and Star Wars

If you're not interested in Canadian politics, stop reading and wait for my week 7 NFL picks later this week.

The Canadian election is Tuesday. I am a resident, but not a citizen and can't vote. But, here is my tuppence anyway.

Please, good people of Canada, vote for the Liberals and rid yourself of Stephen Harper. He's no better than a common gangster. Over the past few years, he and his cronies have been accused of:

• offering a financial bribe to a sitting Member of Parliament to change his vote

http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/516276

• deliberately perpetrating a fraudulent scheme to evade election financing laws while campaigning to clean up government after the Liberals had used government funds to finance their 1997 and 2000 campaigns

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080612.welectionstimeline0612/BNStory/National

http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/414652

• fixing the mayoral election in Ottawa, Canada's capital

  http://www.cbc.ca/canada/ottawa/story/2007/12/10/ot-mayor-071210.html
  

  http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?k=97758&id=714bc9f1-70dd-45c8-849b-c9b4a8fd804d

I admit that the Liberals under Jean Chretien, the Prime Minister from 1993 to 2003, were corrupt and deserved their defeat in 2006. But, we have now replaced one corrupt regime with another just as rotten.

Stephane Dion, the Liberal leader, is a good man. His plan to introduce a carbon tax is the right thing to do. It's beyond me how any Canadian can consider wasting their vote on the Green Party when Dion is the Liberal leader.

I should say that I myself am a small c conservative raised in Britain during the great days of Margaret Thatcher.

Stephen Harper was and is an intelligent man and a good conservative. Sadly, he has turned out like Anakin Skywalker in the Star Wars saga. Anakin Harper came to Ottawa as a young man determined to combat the Liberals and set Canada on a free market path. He grudgingly grew to admire Chancellor Chretien's wily ways of never getting caught and morphed into Darth Harper, a monster who cares only about wielding power and crushing his opponents.