Monday, February 2, 2009

Super Bowl Wrap-Up

Through 43 Super Bowls to date, favourites are now 21-20-2 against the point spread and 29-14 even-up.

Lady G's final playoff results:







Home Faves



Home Dogs



Super Bowl



Readers' Choice



Last Week

Cards +7


Underdogs did the playoff barking for the 3rd consecutive year going 7-4 against the points in 2009.

From 1992 through this year, overdogs boast a 51% winning rate against the points in 187 playoff games. But, this is based entirely on overdogs' 60% run over 7 years from 1992 through the 1999 Super Bowl. Over the past 10 seasons, underdogs have won 55% of playoff games.

187 playoff games since 1992 is too small a sample to say whether playoff games differ from regular season games. If anyone out there has data on NFL playoff results with and without point spreads going back beyond 1992, please feel free to reply and give our readers the benefit of your knowledge.

While I know enough about sports betting to have recorded a 52% record against the points over the past 8 NFL seasons, I don't know anything about the sport itself. I spent most of yesterday's game in the kitchen preparing delicacies for toy boy Archibald. I did see Bruce Springsteen's halftime show. Maybe it's the fact that I came of age musically in England during the 1990s, but I fail to hear what you Yanks hear in that old man's dull drudge. And, what was he thinking opening with Tenth Avenue Freeze-Out – one of his most forgettable tunes? At least Glory Days had something to do with gridiron.

NBA Underdogs

35-26-1 or 57% against the spread for underdogs of 12.5 points or more. The results so far are proving Stanford undergrad whiz kid Gibbs (see 1 November post) correct with his analysis showing that we can expect to see heavy NBA underdogs finish above 50% by a statistically significant margin over at least one full season. I will track this trend for the rest of the year for players in non-profit NBA pools.

Tonight, I recommend taking Sacramento +14 against Phoenix. I'm going with my head over my heart with this one. I agree with fellow Anglobabes Ginger Spice and Elizabeth Hurley that Steve Nash is the cutest man alive (even if he needs to cut his hair).

I may not be as active with this blog for the next little while. T.S. Eliot was clearly no NFL fan. He moved from America to England trading gridiron for rugby and baseball for cricket – losing bets on both counts. And, he wrote that April is the cruellest month. For NFL fans, February is definitely the longest month even without leap day.

But, I will be back every now and then with NBA updates. And, look for me at the end of March when I will be testing Mr. Gibbs' system against the points in the NCAA basketball tournament.