Friday, April 19, 2013

NBA 2013 Playoffs Recap

After losing my game 7 pick of Santonio +6 over MIAMI, I finished 45-40 against the spread (ATS) for the playoffs this year or 52.9% including 4-3 with my underdog picks.

I played netball as a lass in England while experimenting with sexual orientation with lovely, tall and slender Penelope. But, as an adult on the straight and narrow, I do not watch basketball even though official Godiva toy boy/fiancé Archibald can't get enough roundball.

Each spring dearest Archibald organizes a friendly, non-profit office pool for the NBA playoffs. The winner is the contestant who picks the most winners ATS over all playoff matches. All matches are weighted equally.

To humour Archibald, I participate by relying on economists' studies showing that "heavy" underdogs win more than their fair share of basketball games ATS, while "non-heavy" overdogs win slightly more than 50% (although this particular result is not statistically significant).

I take most overdog favourites. I finished well out of the prizes this year. But, over 6 years since 2008 of swimming naked (of roundball knowledge) in Archibald's pool, I am 54.7% ATS.

But, before I get carried away and start billing myself as the NBA playoff Nostradamus, just by picking all overdogs in every NBA playoff game for the past 6 years starting with 2008, you would be sporting a 54.9% record ATS. Archibald disagreed with my Spurs pick. I agreed with Archibald that Miami would likely win the championship. I believe Miami would win 2 out of every 3 game 7s at home against the Spurs if they could play 100 times in the same circumstances. But, I do not believe that Miami would win 50% of game 7s by more than 6 points. Oddsmakers and bettors tend to undervalue the underdog in a high-profile match like game 7 of the NBA finals. Miami covered the point spread by 1 this year, but I still believe that the Spurs offered better value.

Monday, April 1, 2013

Major League Baseball (MLB) 2013 Inter-league Recap

(Updated 30 October 2013)

American League (AL) teams finished 159-148 this year vs. National League (NL) teams including the AL's 2013 All-Star game and World Series (WS) triumphs after 3 consecutive years of NL wins from 2010 to 2012 in both cases.

The NL dominated 40-28 over the last 68 statistically insignificant matches of the regular season.

Official Godiva toy boy/fiancé Archibald organizes a non-profit pool picking winners of at least 250 matches each year. Points are calculated based on the posted odds. I take all AL teams in all inter-league matches based on AL dominance over the past decade. I finished 28th -- far from a prize but at least ahead of Arch, my dim-witted hunkasaurus.

The AL's 51.8% winning rate against the NL this year was well below the AL's 54.6% average (including World Series and All-Star games) from 2004 through 2013 and just within the 51.6% to 57.6% range that we can expect 2 out of every 3 years. The AL has recorded a 10th consecutive triumph in annual inter-league contests, but the 52.7% average over the past 4 years is well below the 55.9% average from 2004 through 2009.

My prior toy boy Reginald now lives in Vegas where he has heard that AL dominance from 2004 to 2009 reflected the greater prevalence of steroid use in the AL, not better team management, and that the NL is catching up now because the steroid crackdown has diminished the AL advantage. Another factor weakening the AL record this year is Houston's switch from NL to AL.

Nevertheless, I expect the AL to continue winning 6 out of every 10 WS as has been the case over the past 3 decades. Boston's victory over St. Louis was even more decisive in total runs scored 27-14. St. Louis was fortunate to win 2 games. 4th WS appearance by the Cards in the last 10 years including 2 wins vs. 3rd appearance and 3 wins for BoSox who for now have bragging rights as team of the 3rd millenium. Cards a rare NL bird with a clued-in team management -- 7th WS appearance for Cards in past 31 years.

Arch's beloved Blue Jays a rare AL clueless bird -- no playoff appearance in past 20 years. By the way, I have told loyal BJay fan and reigning Godiva toy boy Arch that I expect to see the Houston Worstros, NY Mets, ChiCubs and Florida Marlins all make the playoffs sooner than Toronto. Toronto is struggling in the AL with a NL-style team management whose theme song should be the Straw Man's introductory solo in the Wizard of Oz: "If I only had a brain."