Monday, June 23, 2014

Canadian Football League CFL 2014 Recap

To humour my Canadian toy boy and fiance Archibald, I participate in his non-profit CFL pool against the spread (ATS). I was pleased to get the Grey Cup final correct  by picking ATS Hammertown Tiger Cats +7.5 over BC.

I finished 42-41-3 for the year ATS: 5-4-2 with home underdogs, 17-21 with road underdogs, 12-11-1 with home overdogs and 8-5 road overdogs. I ended up behind the best of the plain-vanilla strategies -- all-overdogs far ahead of me at 45-38-3.

I am 53.777% over 6 years picking CFL winners ATS from 2009 through 2014. Not enough matches to be statistically significantly better than 50% dart-throwing, but I am still proud of my good fortune. However, before I start calling myself the CFL ATS Nostradamus, I must stay ahead of the 53% record of a simple all-underdogs strategy over these past 6 years.

Arch points out that western teams were 70-39 straight-up against eastern teams in 2012 through 2014 and 58-51 ATS. Arch was early out on a limb correctly predicting that the 4th place team in the west would cross over to the eastern playoffs. He failed with his prediction that the 4th place western team would win the eastern playoffs and Grey Cup ATS. He switched to predicting that Calgary would win the Grey Cup ATS. Archibald made a persuasive case as always, but I won backing the underdog based on Professor Leavitt's advice to back the underdog in the Super Bowl. If anyone out there has a history of Grey Cup point spreads, it would be interesting to see whether the underdogs are ahead ATS.