Thursday, March 29, 2018

Major League Baseball (MLB) Inter-league 2018 Recap

The surest outcome in sports had been that American League (AL) teams will win the majority of inter-league matches against their National League (NL) opponents. 
After a 21-40 start, the AL crawled back to finish the regular season at 143-158 (including the AL's All-Star match victory). This is the year that the AL finally struck out. The AL lost to the NL for the first time in 15 years. See Neil Paine of 538.com:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-national-league-finally-is-getting-some-interleague-revenge/ 

I stood by my faith in AL superiority and picked the AL Boston Red Sox to win the World Series (WS). Including WS and All-Star matches, the AL finished 2018 at 147-159 against the NL.
The AL had been the superior league by far for more than a decade. The AL had 14 consecutive triumphs over the NL from 2004 through 2017. 
Over the full period of dominance from 2004 through 2017, the AL won 54.66of all matches -- regular season, all-star and World Series
Nevertheless, over this 14-year period of AL dominance the NL and AL were tied 7-7 in World Series triumphs. Over this period, the AL has won 40 of 76 WS matches or 52.6%. The NL has had the good luck to distribute its WS match wins efficiently enough to end up tied 7-7. 

Over a longer period from 1983 through 2018, the AL representative has won 21 of the past 35 World SeriesAnother indicator of the AL's long-term dominance is the fact that the AL has won 6 all-star matches in a row, 18 of the last 21 all-star matches to reach a decision and 24 of the last 30. 
Before 2018, the only positive sign for the NL was that the AL's 53.7% inter-league average (including All-Star and World Series matches) from 2010-17 was below the 55.9% average from 2004 through 2009. 
And, with the Chicago Cubs, LA Dodgers and SF Giants now run by AL-analytics-alumunae, the years of NL inferiority may be over

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

NCAA March Madness 2018 Recap ATS

Official Godiva toy boy and fiancĂ© Archibald organizes a friendly, non-profit office pool for the NCAA men's tourney. Instead of picking bracket winners, players in dearest Arch's pool pick winners against the spread (ATS) each and every day as the tournament unfolds. The winner of his winner-take-all pool is the contestant who picks the most winners against the spread over 67 matches including the first 4 play-in games. All matches are weighted equally. 

I rely on economists' studies showing that heavy underdogs win more than their fair share of college basketball games against the point spread, while "non-heavy" overdogs win slightly more than 50% (although this particular result is not statistically significant).

I finished 30-37 in 2018. After 11 years since 2008 of swimming naked (of roundball knowledge) in Archibald's pool, I am below ephen-stephen at 343-350-15. Clearly, no evidence that I have a good system for picking March madness winners ATS.

By picking all overdogs in every NCAA tournament game for the past decade, you would be sporting a 349-344-15 record ATS. 

In the final, I was wrong picking underdog Michigan +6.5 over Villanova based on Freakanomics Professor Steven Leavitt's surmise that bettors systematically overvalue the overdog and gaming houses do not adjust for this knowledge in championship finals.  

Lady G vs. Baracketer-in-Chief
Former President Obama picks winners straight-up with no point line for each bracket and round.

Like almost everyone else, the former President was way off this year picking only 1 of the final 4 and 2 of the elite 8 and with his winner pick MSU out in round 2. Howvever, Obama got UNC right as the 2009 and 2017 winner. After a tough time in 2010 and 2011 with none of his final 4 picks coming through, he correctly picked 5 of the elite 8 in 2013 and 2014 as well as 6 of 8 in 2012 and 2015. Not too shabby. In 2017, he picked 10 of the sweet 16.

When he picks upsets in the early rounds, I can identify games where Lady Godiva and the Baracketer-in-Chief disagree. This year, I finished 4-3 against Obama's picks. In 10 years through 2018, I am 36-36-1 womano-a-mano against the Baracketer.

Speaking of mano-a-womano, kudos to the former President and hopefully future Speaker of the House for also picking the women's NCAA brackets.