NFL Week 8 Results

All my picks 5 wins 8 losses
My home overdogs 1-3
My home underdogs 0-3
My road underdogs 2-1
My road overdogs 2-1
Spread a factor 0-2
Lady G’s best bets 1-3
Readers’ choice (New York Giants -9.5 over MIAMI) 0-1

For the season so far:
All my picks 57-52-7 52%
My home fave picks 16-18-2 47%
My home dog picks 12-10 55%
My road dog picks 19-16-4 54%
My road fave picks 10-8-1 55%
Spread a factor 10-8-7 54%
Lady G’s best bets 11-18-2 39%
Readers’ choice 1-5-2 25%

A tough week for Lady Godiva at 5-8 or a 38.5% winning percentage. I achieved my absolute minimum target of keeping my weekly winning percentage ahead of my bra size, but that’s not as big a comfort for me as for current Godiva toy boy Archibald.

3rd consecutive week that favourites came out ahead. That’s unusual. Just as 3 swallows don’t make a spring, 3 weeks of fortune favouring overdogs do not overthrow the long-term historical trend backed by decades of data indicating that underdogs are generally the best bet.

I’m certainly hoping there aren’t any more 5 wins or less weeks waiting for me now that I’ve racked up 2 in the first half of the season. But, as a realistic student of Bayesian probability, I won’t be surprised if I have to swallow one or two more hard lessons in humility before the year is out. But, the laws of probability also tell me that there should be at least one more week of 10+ wins for Lady Godiva over the second half of the season.

For the year, my record is dead even with plain-vanilla strategies of all-underdogs or all-road-teams. No evidence yet of either value added or value subtracted by Lady Godiva in 2007. On to the second half we go sticking with the value selection approach that has paid off for me over for the past several years of playing a weekly office pool.

NFL Week 8 Picks

Lady Godiva fancies:

ST. LOUIS +3 over Cleveland
CHICAGO -4.5 over Detroit
Indianapolis -6.5 over CAROLINA
New York Giants -9.5 over MIAMI
TENNESSEE -7.5 over Oakland
MINNESOTA +1 over Philadelphia
Pittsburgh -3.5 over CINCINNATI
Buffalo +3 over NEW YORK JETS
Houston +10.5 over SAN DIEGO
TAMPA BAY -4 over Jacksonville
SAN FRANCISCO +3 over New Orleans
NEW ENGLAND -16.5 over Washington
GREEN BAY +3 over Denver

4 HOME FAVOURITES, 3 HOME DOG, 3 road dogs, 3 road faves

I’m playing with fire this week with my picks divided every which way. I feel more comfortable if there's a stronger theme to my weekly picks -- mostly underdogs or mostly home teams.

It's a bit of stretch calling Miami a home underdog playing in London, England. My annoying boyfriend Archibald says the only reason to pay good English pounds to see the Dolphins play is to see their cheerleaders.

NFL Week 7 Results

All my picks 8 wins 6 losses
My home fave picks 2-1
My home dog picks 1-1
My road dog picks 3-3
My road fave picks 2-1
Spread a factor 2-0
Lady G’s best bets 1-3
Readers’ choice (OAKLAND -2.5 over Kansas City) 0-1

For the season so far:

All my picks 52-44-7 54%
My home fave picks 15-15-2 50%
My home dog picks 12-7 63%
My road dog picks 17-15-4 53%
My road fave picks 8-7-1 53%
Spread a factor 10-6-7 59%
Lady G’s best bets 10-15-2 41%
Readers’ choice 1-4-2 29%

Another week when favourites ruled at 8-6, which is exactly where I finished even though I selected only 6 overdogs.

Lady Luck continued to smile on Lady Godiva with 2 of my 8 underdog picks winning on points.

Steady as she goes -- 54% winners so far this year with only 1 losing week out of 7 places me 1 win ahead of a plain-vanilla, all-underdogs strategy.

If you scroll down to the bottom of the screen, I’m trying a new poll about the baseball World Series. A boring game in my opinion, but at least it’s a shorter waste of time than cricket. All my English boyfriends were mad about cricket, which is one aspect of jolly olde England that I don't miss. One of the best things about North America is that cricket is unknown except as an insect.

But, now that I think about my English boyfriends and their love of cricket, maybe that's a better hobby than exotic dancers for my first North American boyfriend Reginald and NFL cheerleaders for current toy boy Archibald.

NFL Week 6 Results

All my picks 6 wins 5 losses 2 ties
My home fave picks 3-2
My home dog picks 1-2
My road dog picks 1-1-2
My road fave picks 1-0
Spread a factor 0-0-2
Lady G’s best bets 1-2-1
Readers’ choice (Tennessee +3 over TAMPA BAY) 0-0-1

For the season so far:

All my picks 44-38-7 53%
My home fave picks 13-14-2 48%
My home dog picks 11-6 65%
My road dog picks 14-12-4 53%
My road fave picks 6-6-1 50%
Spread a factor 8-6-7 55%
Lady G’s best bets 9-12-2 43%
Readers’ choice 1-3-2 33%

Week 6 was the rare week when favourites were the best bets at 7-4-2.

7 ties in 6 weeks seems like a lot.

53% winners so far this year places me 1% behind a plain-vanilla, all-dogs strategy.

To stay humble, check out this article on the woman who won $444,000 on a $5 lottery ticket for going 13-0 on Sunday in week 5. I calculate that the odds of picking all 13 games correctly are 8,192 to 1. Her payoff was so excellent because the weekly winner of this particular lottery takes home a percentage of total wagers. However, as a general rule, l doubt that it’s a paying proposition to participate in a government-run sports lottery or lottery of any kind.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Lotteries/LotteryNews/2006/10/25/2124755-sun.html

My boyfriend Archibald read this article and kidded me that I too will have to record a perfect week before we can get married. Some kidder, that Archibald. To remind Archibald of who’s boss in our relationship, I am suspending from my site Archibald’s goofy polls on Mary Ann vs. Ginger vs. NFL cheerleaders. For the time being, my polls will all be football related.

Week 6 Picks

Lady Godiva fancies:

KANSAS CITY +3 over Cincinnati
JACKSONVILLE -6.5 over Houston
CLEVELAND -4.5 over Miami
CHICAGO -5.5 over Minnesota
NEW YORK JETS +3 over Philadelphia
BALTIMORE -9.5 over St. Louis
Tennessee +3 over TAMPA BAY
Washington +3 over GREEN BAY
Carolina +4 over ARIZONA
New England -4.5 over DALLAS
Oakland +10 over SAN DIEGO
SEATTLE -6.5 over New Orleans
ATLANTA +3.5 over New York Giants

5 HOME FAVOURITES, 3 HOME DOGS, 4 road dogs, 1 road fave

A split ticket this week with 7 underdogs and 6 favourites – aiming for 8+ wins but running the risk of 8+ losses.

All teams have played at least 4 games or ¼ of the season. Here are my ¼ poll predictions for who will make the playoffs:

AFC:

Top 2 seeds: New England, Pittsburgh
Other divisional winners: Indianapolis, San Diego
Wild cards: Tennessee, Jacksonville

NFC:

Top 2 seeds: Dallas, Green Bay
Other divisional winners: Tampa Bay, Seattle
Wild cards: Washington, Arizona

Boyfriend Archibald’s poll on AFC East cheerleaders remains open for voting at the very bottom of the screen. Dallas Cowgirls took the honours in the NFC East. Archibald plans a playoff system leading to his own cheerleader Super Bowl. If you need to consult the team websites before casting your vote, join Archibald in spending the day linking from the following website:

http://www.google.com/Top/Sports/Cheerleading/NFL_Cheerleaders/

Week 5 Picks

Lady Godiva fancies:

NEW ORLEANS -3 over Carolina
KANSAS CITY +2 over Jacksonville
Detroit +3.5 over WASHINGTON
TENNESSEE -8.5 over Atlanta
HOUSTON -5.5 over Miami
PITTSBURGH -5.5 over Seattle
NEW ENGLAND -16 over Cleveland
Arizona -3.5 over ST. LOUIS
New York Jets +3.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS
INDIANAPOLIS -10 over Tampa Bay
San Diego +1.5 over DENVER
SAN FRANCISCO +3 over Baltimore
GREEN BAY -3 over Chicago
Dallas -10 over BUFFALO

7 HOME FAVOURITES, 2 HOME DOGS, 3 road dogs, 2 road faves

This is a rare week when I’m picking more favourites than underdogs. Many point spreads don’t seem to offer enough value for running with the hounds this week.

Boyfriend Archibald’s poll on NFC East cheerleaders remains open for voting at the very bottom of the screen. If you need to consult the team websites before casting your vote, go to

http://www.google.com/Top/Sports/Cheerleading/NFL_Cheerleaders/

Week 4 Results

All my picks 7 wins 7 losses 50%
My home fave picks 0-2
My home dog picks 5-2 71%
My road dog picks 1-2 33%
My road fave picks 1-1 50%
Lady G’s best bets 0-4
Readers’ choice (SAN FRAN over Seattle) 0-1

For the season so far:

All my picks 33-24-5 57%
My home fave picks 7-8-2 47%
My home dog picks 9-3 75%
My road dog picks 12-9-2 57%
My road fave picks 5-4-1 55%
Spread a factor 7-2-5 68%
Lady G’s best bets 7-7-1 50%
Readers’ choice 1-2-1 38%

Underdogs won 9 of 14 games last week – not so surprising if all we were talking about was against the spread, but pretty unusual when you think that dogs won those 9 games outright with no help needed from the point spread. You won’t see underdogs going 9-5 straight-up every week.

After 4 weeks, my record of 57% winners is dead even with a plain-vanilla, all-dogs strategy, so I can’t claim to be providing value-added yet.

Neither I nor the all-dogs strategy is likely to pick 57% winners over the rest of the season. If I pick 55% winners the rest of the way and finish a bit ahead of the all-dogs strategy, I will be pleased.

Boyfriend Archibald suggests that Lady Godiva’s readers will be interested in his new poll on NFL cheerleaders. If you need to consult the team websites before casting your vote, go to

http://www.google.com/Top/Sports/Cheerleading/NFL_Cheerleaders/

At least current toy boy Archibald’s interest in cheerleaders is a step up from ex-boyfriend Reginald’s obsession with exotic dancers. My friend Elizabeth's comment about Archibald’s cheerleader hobby: “Don’t worry about where he gets his appetite, so long as he eats at home.”

Speaking of Archibald’s tastes, don’t forget to vote in his poll at the very bottom of the screen pitting Mary Ann of Gilligan’s Island against 1960s movie stars.