Major League Baseball (MLB) interleague 2026: NL dominating

In the 2026 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB's) interleague rivalry, National League teams (NL) are schooling American League (AL) teams 90 wins to 66 (58%). So far, the NL is on track for its best-ever interleague season surpassing the previous high of 55% in 2019.

Even the once-dominant AL East with a 43% record (23-31) is eating humble pie this year in matches against NL squads. 

After 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017, the NL won the inter-league contest for 5 of 7 seasons starting with 2018 through 2024. The AL got back on top in 2025. The AL owns a slight advantage with a 51% winning record over 30 years since interleague regular season play started in 1997. 

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements shrank over the years thanks to: 

• the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started with AL squads before crossing over to manage NL teams;
• the effects of age on AL owners no longer content to hire the best baseball minds and stay out of the way -- e.g., sad decline of the Red Sox under John Henry.  

The AL's remaining claim to superiority is winning 10 of the past 12 All-Star contests, 22 of the last 27 to reach a decision and 28 of 36.

After decades of AL superiority in the World Series, the NL has won 5 of the last 7 with Los Dodgers winning 3 of the last 5. Over the last 2 decades from 2006-2025, the NL is ahead 12-8. From 1983 through 2005, the AL won 15 of 22 World Series championships.

Here's my early season observation: at the end of April, the Los Angeles were cruising toward at least another playoff berth with a 20-11 or 64.5% record. There's no surprise to see los Dodgers doing well with their MLB-leading $410 million player payroll (for luxury tax purposes after factoring in the value of deferred salary payments). 

But, the Cincinnati Reds have the same 20-11 record with a $150 million payroll. I don't expect the Reds to have a better record than los Dodgers at the end of the season. But, it's nice to see the Reds showing that it's possible to be in 1st place with a value-for-money approach. 

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. For the vast majority, it's not possible to earn a long-term profit gambling. Online sports betting is the new House of the Rising Sun: "It's been the ruin of many a poor boy. And, God I know that my ex-toy boy is one."

NFL 2025-26 ATS Recap

I was wrong picking ne Krafties +4.5 over SEATTLE against the spread (ATS) in Super Bowl LX.

Professor Steven Levitt argued that the Super Bowl (SB) underdog is the single best bet in sports. 

So far, he's not right. Underdogs are XXVIII-XXX-II ATS in LX Super Bowls. 

Overdog favorites have won XL or LXVII% of Super Bowls, in line with what we would expect from the history of regular season matches. 

But, the point spread has added only XIV% to underdogs ATS winning % -- a bit below what we would expect if Super Bowls were no different than regular season matches and certainly below what Professor Levitt expects. We won't know if he's statistically significantly correct or incorrect for another CMXL years. 

In the play-offs this year, I finished 7-6 = 4-2 home underdogs, 2-0 home overdogs and 1-4 road underdogs.

The divisional round of 1/4 finals is the one week when I stick my neck out and pick home overdogs based on Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ) Gregg Easterbrook's research showing that high-seeded home teams coming off a bye week of rest win 3/4 of divisional round matches straight-up. TMQ steered me right this year.

I kept track of the all-underdogs record for the National Football League (NFL) 2025-26 season. 

Did underdogs find their mojo? Against the spread (ATS), underdogs finished the regular season 139-131-2 or 51.47% = 77-76-2 road underdogs + 62-55 home underdogs. 

For 3 decades through the 2022 regular season, home NFL underdogs were the best bets in sports -- not every year, but most years. 

And, there was also a slight tilt toward road underdogs winning a touch more than 50% ATS. 

As a result, a simple all-underdogs strategy recorded 25 winning NFL regular seasons out of 31 through 2022. 

However, underdogs lost the previous 2 NFL regular seasons 2023-4 and 2024-5 and were losing again earlier in 2025 until underdogs resumed their top-dog status. 

So, underdogs have now won 26 of the past 34 regular seasons through 2025-26.

In 2025-26, overdog favorites had a 63% winning record before taking the spread into account -- down from 71% the year prior. 15% of 2025-26 matches were reversed on points against the spread (ATS). Both were below long-term trends. 

15.3% of 2023-24 and 2024-25 matches were decided on points. So, 2025-26 was the 3rd straight year the number of matches decided on points was below what might expect. That is consistent with the theory that the long-time misperception may no longer be there in the betting market that overdog favorites will win by larger margins than turn out to be the case. 

After last season, I wondered if it could be the case that NFL underdogs no longer rule. Had bettors finally twigged to the fact that they overestimated overdog favorites for years through 2022? It's possible. Underdogs only won 2025-26 by winning a higher-than-expected % of matches outright.

Based on what seemed like regularities in place up until 2022-23, I expect underdogs to win a bit more than 1/3 of all matches straight-up and a bit more than 1/6 of all matches on points. 

Are the unusual results of the past 3 seasons just short-term random walks around long-term averages? Or has the underdog-tilt identified by Professor Steven Levitt vanished? We will need a few more seasons to reach a conclusion. 

In the meantime, I stuck with regular-season underdogs in 2025-26 in the just-for-fun pool that Godiva boy toy Archibald introduced me to. Because most pool players back overdog favorites, I finished 1st out of 54 players in Archibald's pool. 

I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS was not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicity built into odds offered by gambling houses. 

Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for customers, but not workers.

CFL Grey Cup Pick ATS

I was happy to pick correctly SK -3.5 over montreal in the 112th Grey Cup.

I was 2-3 in the play-offs: 1-1 road underdogs in the 1st round and 0-1 home underdog and 0-1 home overdog in the conference championships.

I picked SASquatchEWAN because Godiva toy boy  Archibald points out that western teams are now 290-194-4 or 59.8% straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2025 including Grey Cups and other playoff games. The west was 27-15 straight-up this year including Winterpeg's loss to MONTREAL in the eastern semi-final and the Grey Cup. SASquatchEWAN was 8-1 v. the east.

After 2024, I was starting to accept that the years of western dominance are over. In 2024, east bested west 23-16-2 after winning in 2023 as well. The east won 3 straight Grey Cups from 2022 through 2024. But, the west has now won 12 of the past 19 Grey Cups. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 11-5 ATS picking the past 16 Grey Cups, although I admit to losing the past 3 before this year. 

I am 51% over 15 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners ATS from 2009 on. (I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2025. 2023 was the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. 2023 was my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. 

Arch is too busy with his new hobby to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks are just for fun now. 

Sorry, loyal Godivans. Same problem as last year in 2024. Chaos caused by doesn't-deserve-me Godiva toy boy and and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald preventing me from keeping up during the regular season. And, I have been so caught up helping Godiva toy boy and permanent fiance Arch with his substacking that I still haven't had time to update my CFL picking record for the entire 2024 season. 

2025 Major League Baseball Inter-league Recap

In the 2025 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB's) inter-league rivalry, American League (AL) teams bested their National League (NL) rivals 373 wins to 362 (50.75%) after including the NL winning the World Series + All-Star match. 

The AL East led the way with a 55.5% winning record. The AL champion Blue Jays led the way with a 60% record against the NL even after dropping 4 of 7 to Los Dodgers in the World Series. No AL East squad had a losing inter-league record. The AL West finished at 51%. The AL Central's 46% record against the NL held the AL back. I will predict a Blue Jay win in the World Series based on the AL's superior record this year. I was 2 outs away from being right.  

After 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017, the NL won the inter-league contest for 5 of 7 seasons starting with 2018 through 2024.

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements shrank over the years thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started with AL squads before crossing over to manage NL teams. 

The AL's remaining claim to superiority is winning 10 of the past 12 All-Star contests, 22 of the last 27 to reach a decision and 28 of 36.

Bettors at polymarket.com gave the Toronto Blue Jays only a 32% chance of winning the World Series before the series started. I was one of the happy few picking Toronto over Los Dodgers. After decades of AL superiority in the World Series, the NL has won 5 of the last 7 with Los Dodgers winning 3 of the last 5. Over the last 2 decades from 2006-2025, the NL is ahead 12-8. From 1983 through 2005, the AL won 15 of 22 World Series championships. 

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. For the vast majority, it's not possible to earn a long-term profit gambling.