I will keep track of the all-underdogs record for the National Football League (NFL) 2025 season.
7-9 in week 1 = 3-5 road underdogs + 4-4 home underdogs.
Overdog favorites won 12 of 16 matches for a 75% winning record. 3 of 16 matches or 18.75% were reversed on points against the spread (ATS).
A simple all-underdogs strategy recorded 25 winning NFL regular seasons over the past 33 ATS. But, underdogs lost the last 2 NFL regular seasons.
Have bettors finally twigged to the fact that they overestimated overdog favorites for years through 2022-23? It's possible. I expect underdogs to win a bit more than 1/3 of all matches straight-up and a bit more than 1/6 of all matches on points. Over the previous two seasons, underdogs won a bit less than 1/6 of all matches on points and bit less than 1/3 of all matches straight-up. Are the unusual results of the past 2 seasons just a short-term random walk around the long-term average? Or has the underdog-tilt identified by Professor Steven Levitt vanished? We will need a few more seasons to reach a conclusion. In the meantime, I will stick with regular-season underdogs in 2025 in the just-for-fun pool that Godiva boy toy Archibald introduced me to. I will not abandon my all-underdogs regular season strategy just because of two consecutive bad years.
I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS is not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicity built into odds offered by gambling houses.
Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for customers, but not workers.
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