NFL Picks ATS: 2023-4 Wrap-up

Thanks Muchas gracias to Vivek Ramaswamy for his Super Bowl pick: KC +1.5 over san fran.

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1751740881751724329

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/31/super-bowl-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-conspiracy-theories/a3980d7e-c08c-11ee-a4c6-8f5c350e9316_story.html

My Super Bowl pick was also based on the persuasive case from Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame that NFL bettors would do better if they realized that underdogs consistently best overdogs ATS over long periods and that the Super Bowl underdog is the best bet of the year. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html 

During the 2023 regular season, underdogs were 127-137-8 or 48% against the spread (ATS) = 82-86-3 road underdogs + 45-51-5 home underdogs (normally the best bet in sports over many years). Overdogs won the regular season for only the 7th time in the past 32 years.

Based on the historical record, I will not abandon my all-underdogs strategy after one bad year.

Toy boy Archibald has retired his NFL ATS pool due to volunteer work taking up all his time even to the point of neglecting me. With Arch barely in my life, (and even more barely barely, if you know what I mean, nudge nudge wink wink) I joined another pool and picked all underdogs all year long. A simple all-underdogs strategy recorded 25 winning regular seasons over the past 32, a track record significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's catch-phrases). I finished 3rd out of 65 players in the pool in 2022. This year I finished tied for 36th out of 57. However, I was pleased to finish 1st in week 14.

I am not aware of any evidence showing most playoff matches to be different in the regular season. Our pool continues during the playoffs and I stuck with all underdogs during the wild card round going 4-2 = 2-0 home underdogs + 2-2 road underdogs. 

I never pick favourites except for the No. 1 seeds in the divisional round. Teams with a bye going into the playoffs win about 3/4 of matches straight-up. I doubt that the point spreads reflect the full advantage that should be accorded No. 1 seeds, but I have no evidence to substantiate my gut feeling. I went 1-1 ATS this year with home overdogs No. 1 seeds in the 1/4 final divisional round. They were 2-0 straight-up. Road underdogs went 1-1. 

In the conference championship semi-final round, I went 2-0 with my underdog picks. So, for once, a winning playoff record ATS this year = 9-4 = 2-0 home underdogs + 5-3 road underdogs + 1-1 home overdogs + 1-0 Super Bowl.

CFL Picks 2023 ATS Recap

I mistakenly picked overdog WINterPEG -8.5 over montreal against the spread (ATS) in the Grey Cup. A fitting end to a Canadian Football League (CFL) 2023 season including playoffs over which I finished 35-50-1 against the spread (ATS) = 16-24 road underdogs, 4-5-1 road overdogs, 5-6 home overdogs and 10-15 home underdogs -- my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. A simple all-overdogs strategy was 48-37-1 this year. 

Godiva toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald points out that western teams are 247-156-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2023 and 206-194-5 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. But, in 2023, the east was ahead 18-13-1 ATS and 19-13 straight-up in inter-conference matches. 

Are the years of western dominance over? Or was eastern superiority in 2023 a random aberration without any significant meaning?

The west has still won 6 of the last 10 Grey Cups and 11 of the past 17. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 10-4 ATS picking the past 14 Grey Cups. 

I am 51% over 13 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners against the spread (ATS) from 2009 on. (Recall that the  CFL cancelled their 2020 season, so there have been only 14 seasons from 2009 through 2023.) I have had 5 losing CFL years out of 14. I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2023. 2023 is the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. 

Luckily, Arch was too busy with volunteer tasks to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks were just for fun with not much fun had in a losing year for yours truly. 

MLB Inter-League: 2023 Recap

National League (NL) teams bested American League (AL) teams 364 wins to 332 (52.3% to 47.7%) in the 2023 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB) inter-league rivalry including the MLB's 93rd All-Star match + the World Series (WS).

I picked Texas in the WS.I was planning to pick the NL team, but couldn't bring myself to back sixth-seeded Arizona.  

The AL has won 16 of the last 20 inter-league seasons with All-Star and World Series matches included in the counts. The NL won the inter-league contest for 3 consecutive years from 2018 through 2020 after 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017. The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements has shrunk and perhaps disappeared completely thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started in AL organizations and then crossed over to manage NL teams. 

Prior to 2023, the AL had won 9 all-star contests in a row, 21 of 24 to reach a decision and 27 of 33. 

AL East teams defeated NL opponents 126-104 (54.8%) in 2023 after 58% success in 2020 through 2022. 

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers.