NFL Picks ATS: 2023-4 Wrap-up

Thanks Muchas gracias to Vivek Ramaswamy for his Super Bowl pick: KC +1.5 over san fran.

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1751740881751724329

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/31/super-bowl-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-conspiracy-theories/a3980d7e-c08c-11ee-a4c6-8f5c350e9316_story.html

My Super Bowl pick was also based on the persuasive case from Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame that NFL bettors would do better if they realized that underdogs consistently best overdogs ATS over long periods and that the Super Bowl underdog is the best bet of the year. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html 

During the 2023 regular season, underdogs were 127-137-8 or 48% against the spread (ATS) = 82-86-3 road underdogs + 45-51-5 home underdogs (normally the best bet in sports over many years). Overdogs won the regular season for only the 7th time in the past 32 years.

Based on the historical record, I will not abandon my all-underdogs strategy after one bad year.

Toy boy Archibald has retired his NFL ATS pool due to volunteer work taking up all his time even to the point of neglecting me. With Arch barely in my life, (and even more barely barely, if you know what I mean, nudge nudge wink wink) I joined another pool and picked all underdogs all year long. A simple all-underdogs strategy recorded 25 winning regular seasons over the past 32, a track record significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's catch-phrases). I finished 3rd out of 65 players in the pool in 2022. This year I finished tied for 36th out of 57. However, I was pleased to finish 1st in week 14.

I am not aware of any evidence showing most playoff matches to be different in the regular season. Our pool continues during the playoffs and I stuck with all underdogs during the wild card round going 4-2 = 2-0 home underdogs + 2-2 road underdogs. 

I never pick favourites except for the No. 1 seeds in the divisional round. Teams with a bye going into the playoffs win about 3/4 of matches straight-up. I doubt that the point spreads reflect the full advantage that should be accorded No. 1 seeds, but I have no evidence to substantiate my gut feeling. I went 1-1 ATS this year with home overdogs No. 1 seeds in the 1/4 final divisional round. They were 2-0 straight-up. Road underdogs went 1-1. 

In the conference championship semi-final round, I went 2-0 with my underdog picks. So, for once, a winning playoff record ATS this year = 9-4 = 2-0 home underdogs + 5-3 road underdogs + 1-1 home overdogs + 1-0 Super Bowl.

NFL Picks ATS: 2022-3 Recap

I successfully picked underdog kc +1 over philly in Super Bowl LVII.  

I finished 7-6 against the spread (ATS) with my 2023 playoff picks: 4-4 road underdogs, 1-1 home underdogs, 1-1 home overdogs and 1-0 in the Super Bowl.

The divisional round is the only time I ever pick overdog favourites based on TMQ Gregg Easterbrook's insight that the top seeds coming off a bye win 3/4 of their divisional round games straight-up. My guess is that the point spreads may not completely capture top seed dominance.  

For the 2022-3 National Football League (NFL) regular season, underdogs finished 140-121-9 or 53.5%  ATS.  

55-44-4 home underdogs -- historically the best bet in sports, but not good enough over the long run to make a profit large enough to overcome the commission charged by gambling houses. 

85-77-5 road underdogs. 

Toy boy Archibald has retired his NFL ATS pool due to volunteer work taking up all his time even to the point of neglecting me. 

With Arch barely in my life, (and even more barely barely, if you know what I mean, nudge nudge wink wink) I joined another pool and picked all underdogs all year long. A simple all-underdogs strategy has now recorded 25 winning regular seasons over the past 31, a track record  significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's catch-phrases). I finished 3rd out of 65 players in the pool.

This strategy is based on the persuasive case from Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame that NFL bettors would do better if they realized that underdogs consistently best overdogs ATS and that the Super Bowl underdog is the best bet of the year. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html

NFL Picks 2021-2 ATS

In toy boy Archibald's just-for-fun National Football League (NFL) pool against the spread (ATS), I correctly picked cinci +4 over LA RAMS in Super Bowl LVI. 

A losing playoff season for me at 5-8 after finishing the regular season at 142-129-1 or 52% ATS : 85-78 road underdogs, 54-49-1 home underdogs, 1-1 home overdogs and 2-1 road overdogs. Including playoffs, I finished 147-137-1 = 51.75%.  

I follow a strategy based on the persuasive case from Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame that NFL bettors would do better if they realized that underdogs consistently best overdogs ATS and that the Super Bowl underdog is the best bet of the year. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html

Despite my 5-6 record picking playoff underdogs this year, I still see no evidence that most play-off matches including the Super Bowl differ from regular season matches. If bettors maintain their overdog bias, over the next 1000 years, we should see just over 1/3 of all Super Bowls won outright by underdogs and just over 1/6 won by underdogs ATS thanks to the points. Stick with underdogs.

One exception may be top-seeded home overdogs after a 1st round bye. These teams win almost 3/4 of their matches outright straight-up  vs. about 2/3 straight-up victories for regular season overdogs. Despite going 0-2 this year picking the two top seeds in the 1/4 final divisional round, I still doubt that the point spreads account correctly for this probable dominance over time by the top-seeded teams in division round matches. 

I finished the 2021-22 regular season tied for 24th out of  55 in Arch's pool after finishing the 2019 and 2020 regular seasons both years at 53.7% and 2nd (3-way tie for 2nd out of 60 players in 2020).

The simple all-underdogs strategy recorded a 24th winning regular season over the past 30, a track record that is significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's arch catch-phrases).

NFL 2018-9 Recap: Pool Picks ATS

For Super Bowl LIII in toy boy fiance Archibald's fun pool, I was wrong with my pick of 
LA RAMS +2.5 over ne cheatriots
Freakonomics Professor Steven Leavitt recommends the Super Bowl underdog as the best bet in sports. So far after LIII Super Bowls, underdogs are leading against the spread (ATS) XXVI-XXV-II. 
Lady Godiva finally enjoyed a successful play-offs at 8-3 ATS after picking all home overdogs (3-1) in the divisional 1/4 final round and all road underdogs (5-1) in the wild card and conference champ rounds. This was only my 2nd winning play-off year in the past 16.
The divisional round is the only week of the year when I take all home overdogs. Tuesday Morning Quarterback Gregg Easterbrook points out that the top 2 seeds have won almost 3/4 of play-off matches straight-up after the bye week going back to 1990 -- well above the usual 2/3 straight-up winning rate for overdogs. Over 250 years and 1,000 matches, I would expect home teams in a play-off match after a bye week to finish above 50% ATS by a statistically significant margin. 
After 17 weeks of regular season action, I finished 132-118-6 = 86-74-4 road underdogs, 41-38-1 home underdogs, 1-1-1 road favourite overdogs and 4-5 home favourite overdogs. (Over the last several years, I have had an unfortunate knack for picking overdog losers.)
I finished behind a simple all-underdog strategy, which racked up a 21st winning regular season in the past 27 years. If anyone out there has ATS data for regular seasons prior to 1992, please provide said data in a comment or let me know where NFL regular season ATS pre-1992 data might be available on the inter-web.