I'm pleased to report success so far with my strategy of picking all American League (AL) teams in inter-league games for players in friendly non-profit office pool picking major-league baseball (MLB) winners over the course of the season.
In weekend 1 of 2008 inter-league play, AL teams continued their recent dominance taking 22 of 41 games or 54% despite the fact that National League (NL) teams hosted 8 of 14 series. If your pool points are based on odds posted for those fools who bet on baseball, you would have finished +2.2 for the weekend with an all-AL strategy. If the odds correctly value winning probabilities in each match-up and factor in commissions to cover gaming house costs, we would expect any strategy to generate negative returns over a long period.
Stay tuned for the rest of the 2008 season as we see whether the odds correctly factor almost everyone's expectation of continued AL dominance.
With just over 1/4 of the season under our belts, we have enough data to predict the playoff teams. Boston, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Cleveland will square off in the AL with Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago and Houston doing battle in the NL.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Friday, May 16, 2008
NBA Playoff and Inter-league MLB Picks
Lady G fancies:
UTAH -4 over LA
CLEVELAND -2.5 over Boston
NO over SA with whatever the USA Today point spread is.
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 36 wins 28 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 35-23-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-7-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 41-23-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 40-24-1.
In this post, I also look ahead to the dog days of summer after the conclusion of the NBA finals and the start of the NFL regular season -- the 2nd dullest period for North American sports fans, 2nd in tedium only to the weeks in February and March after the Super Bowl and before the NCAA basketball tourney.
Yes, there’s major-league baseball (MLB) during July and August. But, be honest. Is there anyone out there who can really enjoy an entire mid-season baseball game?
To my English eyes, the only good thing about baseball is that it doesn’t last as long as cricket.
But, during the summer MLB is the only game going for participants in friendly, non-profit office pools. If you are in a pool based on picking the winners of each game with points awarded based on odds posted for those fools who wager on sports, I propose conducting the following experiment.
Continue following your own head-or-heart approach for picking intra-league games. But, for inter-league games between American League (AL) and National League (NL) teams, use your head and always pick the AL team. Over the past 3 seasons, AL teams have won a significant majority of all inter-league games.
What I am interested in knowing is whether oddsmakers and their customers correctly value AL dominance. For the rest of the baseball season, I will report my simulated running total for a strategy placing $1 on an AL team to win more than $1 on those rare occasions when an AL underdog is facing a NL overdog and placing more than $1 to win $1 in the more common case when an AL overdog meets a NL underdog. Logic says the commission built into odds should result in a small net loss for any strategy. But, let’s see whether this is really true for a full season of inter-league play.
I will report my results next week.
In the meantime, keep taking the overdogs in the NBA playoffs.
UTAH -4 over LA
CLEVELAND -2.5 over Boston
NO over SA with whatever the USA Today point spread is.
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 36 wins 28 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 35-23-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-7-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 41-23-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 40-24-1.
In this post, I also look ahead to the dog days of summer after the conclusion of the NBA finals and the start of the NFL regular season -- the 2nd dullest period for North American sports fans, 2nd in tedium only to the weeks in February and March after the Super Bowl and before the NCAA basketball tourney.
Yes, there’s major-league baseball (MLB) during July and August. But, be honest. Is there anyone out there who can really enjoy an entire mid-season baseball game?
To my English eyes, the only good thing about baseball is that it doesn’t last as long as cricket.
But, during the summer MLB is the only game going for participants in friendly, non-profit office pools. If you are in a pool based on picking the winners of each game with points awarded based on odds posted for those fools who wager on sports, I propose conducting the following experiment.
Continue following your own head-or-heart approach for picking intra-league games. But, for inter-league games between American League (AL) and National League (NL) teams, use your head and always pick the AL team. Over the past 3 seasons, AL teams have won a significant majority of all inter-league games.
What I am interested in knowing is whether oddsmakers and their customers correctly value AL dominance. For the rest of the baseball season, I will report my simulated running total for a strategy placing $1 on an AL team to win more than $1 on those rare occasions when an AL underdog is facing a NL overdog and placing more than $1 to win $1 in the more common case when an AL overdog meets a NL underdog. Logic says the commission built into odds should result in a small net loss for any strategy. But, let’s see whether this is really true for a full season of inter-league play.
I will report my results next week.
In the meantime, keep taking the overdogs in the NBA playoffs.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
NBA Playoff Picks May 14-15
Lady G fancies:
LA -9 over Utah
BOSTON -9 over Cleveland
SA -7 over NO
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 35 wins 26 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 34-21-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-5-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 40-21-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 39-22-1.
I'm prouder than a DD list actress who wins the Oscar to be ranked first in Crowd Score and against the spread (ATS) over the last 7 days at http://www.crowdpicks.com/
Stand by this weekend for my venture into baseball picking when inter-league games start. I would like to run a simple season-long experiment to see whether the odds correctly measure the American League dominance that we can expect will continue this season.
LA -9 over Utah
BOSTON -9 over Cleveland
SA -7 over NO
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 35 wins 26 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 34-21-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-5-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 40-21-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 39-22-1.
I'm prouder than a DD list actress who wins the Oscar to be ranked first in Crowd Score and against the spread (ATS) over the last 7 days at http://www.crowdpicks.com/
Stand by this weekend for my venture into baseball picking when inter-league games start. I would like to run a simple season-long experiment to see whether the odds correctly measure the American League dominance that we can expect will continue this season.
Monday, May 12, 2008
NBA Playoff Picks May 12-14
Lady G fancies:
CLEVELAND -2 over Boston
DETROIT -7 over Orlando
NO -3 over SA
LA -9 over Utah
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 33 wins 25 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 32-20-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-4-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 38-20-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 37-21-1.
I'm prouder than a starlet who wins the Oscar to be ranked first against the spread (ATS) over the last 7 days at http://www.crowdpicks.com/
Stay tuned for a full report when I have time on my weekend of canoodling at beautiful Niagara on the Lake.
CLEVELAND -2 over Boston
DETROIT -7 over Orlando
NO -3 over SA
LA -9 over Utah
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 33 wins 25 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 32-20-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-4-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 38-20-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 37-21-1.
I'm prouder than a starlet who wins the Oscar to be ranked first against the spread (ATS) over the last 7 days at http://www.crowdpicks.com/
Stay tuned for a full report when I have time on my weekend of canoodling at beautiful Niagara on the Lake.
Friday, May 9, 2008
NBA 2008 Playoffs May 9-11 Picks
Lady G fancies:
UTAH -4.5 over LA
ORLANDO -5 over Detroit
CLEVELAND -1 over Boston
SA -5.5 over NO
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 29 wins 24 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 28-19-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-4-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 34-19-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 33-20-1.
Given uncertainty about Billups, hard to believe that Magic only giving 5 to Pistons.
Toy boy Archibald is treating me to a well-deserved weekend of canoodling, so I won't be updating my site until Monday.
I'm puffing up my chest with pride today as the 2nd ranked picker against the spread (ATS) over the last 7 days at http://www.crowdpicks.com/.
UTAH -4.5 over LA
ORLANDO -5 over Detroit
CLEVELAND -1 over Boston
SA -5.5 over NO
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 29 wins 24 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 28-19-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-4-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 34-19-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 33-20-1.
Given uncertainty about Billups, hard to believe that Magic only giving 5 to Pistons.
Toy boy Archibald is treating me to a well-deserved weekend of canoodling, so I won't be updating my site until Monday.
I'm puffing up my chest with pride today as the 2nd ranked picker against the spread (ATS) over the last 7 days at http://www.crowdpicks.com/.
Monday, May 5, 2008
NBA Playoffs May 5-7 Picks
Lady G fancies:
DETROIT -6 over Orlando
NEW ORLEANS -2.5 over San Antonio
Cleveland +10 over BOSTON
LA LAKERS -7 over Utah
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 22 wins 24 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 22-19-1
My underdog picks 0-5
Spread a factor: 0-4-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy decisively leads the way at 28-18-1.
It's interesting that my approach of picking "heavy" underdogs is performing so poorly so far, when historical data show that this has been a winning strategy. Sample size of 5 too small to draw any conclusions, but the record so far is consistent with NCAA March madness results this year. In the NFL, there is an unproven (to my knowledge) hypothesis that playoff patterns deviate from regular season patterns. I would be very interested if anyone out there has any historical data on NCAA and/or NBA playoff results against the point spread.
DETROIT -6 over Orlando
NEW ORLEANS -2.5 over San Antonio
Cleveland +10 over BOSTON
LA LAKERS -7 over Utah
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 22 wins 24 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 22-19-1
My underdog picks 0-5
Spread a factor: 0-4-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy decisively leads the way at 28-18-1.
It's interesting that my approach of picking "heavy" underdogs is performing so poorly so far, when historical data show that this has been a winning strategy. Sample size of 5 too small to draw any conclusions, but the record so far is consistent with NCAA March madness results this year. In the NFL, there is an unproven (to my knowledge) hypothesis that playoff patterns deviate from regular season patterns. I would be very interested if anyone out there has any historical data on NCAA and/or NBA playoff results against the point spread.
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