As an Englishwoman, there's no earthly reason for Lady Godiva to be so rapt (see http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/rapt) by the 17th Celtic championship.
Given my dim view of Kobe, I guess it's a case of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".
My results for the 2008 NBA playoffs against the spread:
All my picks 47 wins 37 losses 2 ties (56%)
My overdog picks 43-32-2
My underdog picks 4-5
Spread a factor: 3-9-2
Lady G can't complain about 56% over 86 games, but before I get carried away with my NBA expertise I have to recognise that a plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy led the way at 49-35-2 (58%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 48-36-2 (57%).
I racked up a 58% winning record with my NCAA March madness picks this year.
For my basketall picks, I have been following a system based on historical data from regular season games showing a statistically significant tendency for "heavy" underdogs to beat the spread and a statistically insignificant trend favouring "light" overdogs.
But, in both NBA and NCAA playoffs this year, "heavy" underdogs performed poorly while all overdogs ruled. I would be very interested if anyone out there can point me to long-term data on NBA and NCAA playoff results against the spread. One hypothesis would be that playoff results differ from regular season results against the spread.
Showing posts with label basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label basketball. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
NBA Final Game 4 Pick
Lady G stands for Lady Green sticking with Boston +7.5 over LA.
I was chuffed to win on points in game 3 with +9.5. It may just be our poor Canadian coverage of hoops, but our national newspaper posted the initial line for game 3 as LA -6.5. When I saw the spread at 9.5, I didn't have the heart to back Kobe giving that many points. He may not be very likable, but even I have to admit that Kobe carried the Lakers last night.
Taking Boston +7.5, I'm definitely letting heart rule head -- a mistake I swore I would never repeat after previous toy boy Reginald. But, at least in this case the stakes aren't as great playing a non-profit pool with pocket money on the line compared to the significant financial and emotional losses I suffered untangling myself from that no-good Reginald.
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 44 wins 37 losses 2 ties (54%)
My overdog picks 42-32-2
My underdog picks 2-5
Spread a factor: 2-9-2
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 48-33-2 (59%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 47-34-2 (58%).
Current toy boy Archibald remains unbeaten with his Euro Cup 2008 soccer football picks -- 16 points so far in his non-profit office pool with each player choosing 8 countries and earning 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw and points + or - for net goal difference.
I was chuffed to win on points in game 3 with +9.5. It may just be our poor Canadian coverage of hoops, but our national newspaper posted the initial line for game 3 as LA -6.5. When I saw the spread at 9.5, I didn't have the heart to back Kobe giving that many points. He may not be very likable, but even I have to admit that Kobe carried the Lakers last night.
Taking Boston +7.5, I'm definitely letting heart rule head -- a mistake I swore I would never repeat after previous toy boy Reginald. But, at least in this case the stakes aren't as great playing a non-profit pool with pocket money on the line compared to the significant financial and emotional losses I suffered untangling myself from that no-good Reginald.
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 44 wins 37 losses 2 ties (54%)
My overdog picks 42-32-2
My underdog picks 2-5
Spread a factor: 2-9-2
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 48-33-2 (59%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 47-34-2 (58%).
Current toy boy Archibald remains unbeaten with his Euro Cup 2008 soccer football picks -- 16 points so far in his non-profit office pool with each player choosing 8 countries and earning 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw and points + or - for net goal difference.
Monday, June 9, 2008
NBA Final Game 3 Pick
Boston +9.5 over LA is tickling MiLady's G spot even though my head says take the Lakers at home. I justify going with my heart because my head is also guessing that the spread may be inflated by the Laker legions.
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 43 wins 37 losses 2 ties (54%)
My overdog picks 42-32-2
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-9-2
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 48-32-2 (60%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 47-33-2 (59%).
Toy boy Archibald undefeated so far with his Euro Cup 2008 soccer football picks. Just as one swallow does not make a spring (or a lasting relationship), two perfect days does not guarantee victory in a picking winners pool. Nevertheless, it's always nice to get off to a good start in a picking winners pool, new relationship and everything else.
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 43 wins 37 losses 2 ties (54%)
My overdog picks 42-32-2
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-9-2
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 48-32-2 (60%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 47-33-2 (59%).
Toy boy Archibald undefeated so far with his Euro Cup 2008 soccer football picks. Just as one swallow does not make a spring (or a lasting relationship), two perfect days does not guarantee victory in a picking winners pool. Nevertheless, it's always nice to get off to a good start in a picking winners pool, new relationship and everything else.
Friday, June 6, 2008
NBA Final Game 2 Pick
BOSTON -2 over LA is still tickling MiLady's G spot.
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 42 wins 37 losses 2 ties (53%)
My overdog picks 41-32-2
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-9-2
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 47-32-2 (59%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 46-33-2 (58%).
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 42 wins 37 losses 2 ties (53%)
My overdog picks 41-32-2
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-9-2
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 47-32-2 (59%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 46-33-2 (58%).
Sunday, June 1, 2008
NBA Final Game 1 Pick
BOSTON -2.5 over LA tickles Lady G's fancy.
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 41 wins 37 losses 2 ties (52.5%)
My overdog picks 40-32-2
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-9-2
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 46-32-2 (59%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 45-33-2 (57.5%).
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 41 wins 37 losses 2 ties (52.5%)
My overdog picks 40-32-2
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-9-2
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 46-32-2 (59%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 45-33-2 (57.5%).
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
NBA Playoff Picks May 14-15
Lady G fancies:
LA -9 over Utah
BOSTON -9 over Cleveland
SA -7 over NO
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 35 wins 26 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 34-21-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-5-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 40-21-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 39-22-1.
I'm prouder than a DD list actress who wins the Oscar to be ranked first in Crowd Score and against the spread (ATS) over the last 7 days at http://www.crowdpicks.com/
Stand by this weekend for my venture into baseball picking when inter-league games start. I would like to run a simple season-long experiment to see whether the odds correctly measure the American League dominance that we can expect will continue this season.
LA -9 over Utah
BOSTON -9 over Cleveland
SA -7 over NO
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 35 wins 26 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 34-21-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-5-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 40-21-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 39-22-1.
I'm prouder than a DD list actress who wins the Oscar to be ranked first in Crowd Score and against the spread (ATS) over the last 7 days at http://www.crowdpicks.com/
Stand by this weekend for my venture into baseball picking when inter-league games start. I would like to run a simple season-long experiment to see whether the odds correctly measure the American League dominance that we can expect will continue this season.
Monday, May 12, 2008
NBA Playoff Picks May 12-14
Lady G fancies:
CLEVELAND -2 over Boston
DETROIT -7 over Orlando
NO -3 over SA
LA -9 over Utah
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 33 wins 25 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 32-20-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-4-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 38-20-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 37-21-1.
I'm prouder than a starlet who wins the Oscar to be ranked first against the spread (ATS) over the last 7 days at http://www.crowdpicks.com/
Stay tuned for a full report when I have time on my weekend of canoodling at beautiful Niagara on the Lake.
CLEVELAND -2 over Boston
DETROIT -7 over Orlando
NO -3 over SA
LA -9 over Utah
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 33 wins 25 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 32-20-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-4-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 38-20-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 37-21-1.
I'm prouder than a starlet who wins the Oscar to be ranked first against the spread (ATS) over the last 7 days at http://www.crowdpicks.com/
Stay tuned for a full report when I have time on my weekend of canoodling at beautiful Niagara on the Lake.
Friday, May 9, 2008
NBA 2008 Playoffs May 9-11 Picks
Lady G fancies:
UTAH -4.5 over LA
ORLANDO -5 over Detroit
CLEVELAND -1 over Boston
SA -5.5 over NO
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 29 wins 24 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 28-19-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-4-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 34-19-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 33-20-1.
Given uncertainty about Billups, hard to believe that Magic only giving 5 to Pistons.
Toy boy Archibald is treating me to a well-deserved weekend of canoodling, so I won't be updating my site until Monday.
I'm puffing up my chest with pride today as the 2nd ranked picker against the spread (ATS) over the last 7 days at http://www.crowdpicks.com/.
UTAH -4.5 over LA
ORLANDO -5 over Detroit
CLEVELAND -1 over Boston
SA -5.5 over NO
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 29 wins 24 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 28-19-1
My underdog picks 1-5
Spread a factor: 1-4-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 34-19-1 followed closely by all-overdogs at 33-20-1.
Given uncertainty about Billups, hard to believe that Magic only giving 5 to Pistons.
Toy boy Archibald is treating me to a well-deserved weekend of canoodling, so I won't be updating my site until Monday.
I'm puffing up my chest with pride today as the 2nd ranked picker against the spread (ATS) over the last 7 days at http://www.crowdpicks.com/.
Monday, May 5, 2008
NBA Playoffs May 5-7 Picks
Lady G fancies:
DETROIT -6 over Orlando
NEW ORLEANS -2.5 over San Antonio
Cleveland +10 over BOSTON
LA LAKERS -7 over Utah
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 22 wins 24 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 22-19-1
My underdog picks 0-5
Spread a factor: 0-4-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy decisively leads the way at 28-18-1.
It's interesting that my approach of picking "heavy" underdogs is performing so poorly so far, when historical data show that this has been a winning strategy. Sample size of 5 too small to draw any conclusions, but the record so far is consistent with NCAA March madness results this year. In the NFL, there is an unproven (to my knowledge) hypothesis that playoff patterns deviate from regular season patterns. I would be very interested if anyone out there has any historical data on NCAA and/or NBA playoff results against the point spread.
DETROIT -6 over Orlando
NEW ORLEANS -2.5 over San Antonio
Cleveland +10 over BOSTON
LA LAKERS -7 over Utah
My results so far against the spread:
All my picks 22 wins 24 losses 1 tie
My overdog picks 22-19-1
My underdog picks 0-5
Spread a factor: 0-4-1
A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy decisively leads the way at 28-18-1.
It's interesting that my approach of picking "heavy" underdogs is performing so poorly so far, when historical data show that this has been a winning strategy. Sample size of 5 too small to draw any conclusions, but the record so far is consistent with NCAA March madness results this year. In the NFL, there is an unproven (to my knowledge) hypothesis that playoff patterns deviate from regular season patterns. I would be very interested if anyone out there has any historical data on NCAA and/or NBA playoff results against the point spread.
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