NFL 2008 Week 1 Picks

I'm sorry to report starting with a road underdog loss picking Washington over NY GIANTS in the season kickoff game. Fortunately, I've got 15 more games in week 1 to start the year off right.

This year, I'm sticking closely with home underdogs unless I see a strong reason to deviate from that tried-and-tested strategy. Historical data show that backing home underdogs is the best single strategy for any NFL pool picker. Even last year when underdogs as a whole had a rare losing year at 48%, home underdogs finished a notch above 50% at 46-45-1. So, I would advise players in friendly, non-profit NFL pools to take all 7 home underdogs this week.

MIAMI +3 over NY Jets
TENNESSEE +3 over Jaxonville
ATLANTA +3 over Detroit
CLEVELAND +5.5 over Dallas
SAN FRAN +2.5 over Arizona
OAKLAND +3 over Denver
BALTIMORE +1.5 over Cinci

Road underdogs finish above 50% most years, but not always as I learned to my sorrow last year. I'm treating last year as a random variation from the normal trend until I see clear evidence otherwise. Nevertheless, in week 1, I am recommending only 3 road underdogs:

Seattle +1 over Buffalo
St. Lou +7.5 over PHILLY
Houston +6.5 over PITTSBURGH

So, that leaves 5 home overdogs:

NE -15.5 over kc
NO -3 over tb
SD -9 over Carolina
INDY -9.5 over Chicago
GB -2.5 over Minnie

Time permitting I will report next week on toy boy Archibald's how-not-to guide for visiting NY City. The more time I spend with dear Archibald, the more it is clear that he's just a pretty face with nothing behind it – just like all my previous boyfriends. It's a good thing for Archibald that he's prettier than the rest.

It Ain’t Braggin’ If You Can Back It Up

Good news and bad news for Lady G.

The good news is that I won the slogan contest at www.crowdpicks.com without even entering.
The bad news is that my latest baseball picking experiment has been a dismal failure so far after ten days. I identified four “undervalued” teams – Atlanta, Cleveland, Seattle and Toronto – with won/loss records significantly below levels predicted by their runs for and against records. I matched them with four “overvalued” teams – Florida, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota and Texas -- with won/loss records significantly above levels predicted by their runs for and against records.

My hypotheses are:

• “Undervalued” and “overvalued” teams will finish the season with winning percentages closer to their underlying runs for and against records. In other words, Florida, LA Angels, Minnesota and Texas can be expected to sink back to the pack over the rest of the season. At the same time, Atlanta, Cleveland, Seattle and Toronto are likely to improve.

• The odds set by gaming houses to induce an optimal balance of bets on overdogs and underdogs in baseball games may not reflect the true values of “undervalued” and “overvalued” teams.

If you’ve entered a friendly non-profit office pool picking major-league baseball (MLB) winners over the course of the season, my advice was to back “undervalued” teams and to go against “overvalued” teams.

So far, this strategy has been truly dismal -- 20 wins outweighed by 43 losses for -27.45 points with:

1 point for a win backing an overdog;
-1 point for loss backing an underdog;
+1.x points for a win backing an underdog with 1.x based on the posted odds;
-1.x points for a loss backing an overdog with 1.x based on the posted odds.

I wasn’t expecting to win 50% of my picks with this system, but I did have grounds for hoping that I would finish on the plus side with the odds factored in. My awful record over 63 games may be due to random bad luck. I plan to keep monitoring this experiment this month at least until the National Football League (NFL) season provides more diverting entertainment. Perhaps this experiment will turn around. Or perhaps we are finding out that this particular approach to baseball pool picking is a pig that won’t fly.

Baseball Pool Advice

Just for fun and to keep busy between now and the start of the NFL season, I am going to conduct another baseball experiment.

If you are a player in a non-profit baseball pool with points based on odds posted for those fools who bet on baseball, let's try the following approach for the rest of the season.

Always take the following teams:

Atlanta
Cleveland
Seattle
Toronto

Always pick against the following teams:

Florida
Los Angeles Angels
Minnesota
Texas

My system is based on the fact that Florida, LA Angels, Minnesota and Texas have better win-loss records than their talent level simply due to good luck so far this year in the way that their runs scored and runs allowed have been distributed in each game. Conversely, Atlanta, Cleveland, Seattle and Toronto have worse win-loss records than their talent level due to bad luck so far this year. I recommend picking against the "good luck" teams and favouring the "bad luck" teams on the grounds that luck is just luck and cannot be expected to continue. It may well be the case that oddsmakers and baseball bettors are fooled by won-loss records and overestimate Florida, LA Angels, Minnesota and Texas and underestimate Atlanta, Cleveland, Seattle and Toronto.

For the statistical basis of my argument that won-loss records are influenced by luck rather than talent, go to:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

When two undervalued teams or two overvalued teams are playing against each other, I don't have any advice. For example, today Seattle is at Toronto and my system has nothing to say about which team to back.

But, undervalued Cleveland is hosting overvalued Minnesota. I recommend picking Cleveland even giving odds of -190 (or -1.9 on a 1 point scale). My guess is that oddsmakers are undervaluing Cleveland against Minnesota even with Cy Young contender Cliff Lee starting for Cleveland.

I will report back in the first week of September on the performance of my baseball pool-picking system.

In the meantime, I remain rapt to be still ranked in the top 10 at

http://www.crowdpicks.com

Final Inter-League Baseball Pick

If you play in a non-profit office baseball pool with points based on posted odds, you must take

NY Yankees -1.5 (or -150) at Pittsburgh.

See my previous posts on the outstanding record of American League (AL) teams in inter-league play, particularly AL teams visiting National League (NL) parks this year. The posted odds this year did not correctly adjust for AL dominance, particularly when AL teams were on the road.

Check out

http://mikesrants.baseballtoaster.com/archives/1036914.html

for a good summary of inter-league history with the AL winning 57% of all inter-league contests from 2005 on. The AL’s 59% record this year is second only to 61% AL dominance in 2006.

All sporting streaks eventually regress to the average. But, as long as the AL is dominating and preliminary evidence indicates that the oddsmakers are not correctly allowing for this dominance, stick with the AL team in any inter-league game.

I certainly hope my own sporting streak does not revert to the mean anytime soon. I'm as chuffed as chuffed can be to be ranked 5th for season W/L and 9th for CrowdScore at

http://www.crowdpicks.com/

Inter-league Baseball Results Series 1

I'm pleased to report success so far with my strategy of picking all American League (AL) teams in inter-league games for players in friendly non-profit office pool picking major-league baseball (MLB) winners over the course of the season.

In weekend 1 of 2008 inter-league play, AL teams continued their recent dominance taking 22 of 41 games or 54% despite the fact that National League (NL) teams hosted 8 of 14 series. If your pool points are based on odds posted for those fools who bet on baseball, you would have finished +2.2 for the weekend with an all-AL strategy. If the odds correctly value winning probabilities in each match-up and factor in commissions to cover gaming house costs, we would expect any strategy to generate negative returns over a long period.

Stay tuned for the rest of the 2008 season as we see whether the odds correctly factor almost everyone's expectation of continued AL dominance.

With just over 1/4 of the season under our belts, we have enough data to predict the playoff teams. Boston, Tampa Bay, Oakland and Cleveland will square off in the AL with Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago and Houston doing battle in the NL.