Sticking with underdogs this week even after 3-11 in week 6 and 3-10-1 in week 5 against the spread (ATS) -- the worst 2 weeks in my herstory of playing in sports predicting pools.
I am keeping track of the all-underdogs record for the entire National Football League (NFL) 2024 season including playoffs. After 6 weeks, underdogs so far are 40-50-2 against the spread (ATS) or 45%: 31-29-1 road underdogs and 9-21-1 homie dogs.
Over many decades, NFL home underdogs were the best bet in sports -- but not this year or last. Home underdogs were 0-12 ATS over the past 2 weeks. Home underdogs went 47-51-5 in 2023-2024 including playoffs.
I will not abandon my all-underdogs strategy after one bad year last year in 2023-4 and a bad start this year.
A simple all-underdogs strategy recorded 25 winning NFL regular seasons over the past 32 against the spread (ATS), a track record significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's catch-phrases). At this point, it is probable that underdogs will lose the NFL regular season ATS for the 2nd consecutive year. If anyone knows when is the last time that happened, I would be glad to know.
I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS is not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicity built into odds offered by gambling houses.
Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for the customers, but not the workers.
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