2011 Super Bowl

Modified 9 February 2011
I am embarrassed to say that I finished 4-7 for the 2011 playoffs and have now lost the past 4 Super Bowls against the point spread. Combining both regular season and playoffs, I finished even-steven at 130-130-7 for the 2010-11 NFL season.

Sports fans like groundhogs have another 6 weeks to hibernate. Then, tune in for my March madness picks when I also match wits against Baracketer-in-Chief Obama.

To see why I picked Pittsburgh to win the Super Bowl, check out Freakonomics author Professor Steven Levitt's case for picking the Super Bowl underdog every year because Super Sunday bettors are less sophisticated than regular season punters and overvalue overdogs even more than regular season bettors.

www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/05sbgamble_92_94_.html

Through 45 Super Bowls to date, underdogs are 21-22-2. Based on Professor Levitt's analysis, I would expect to see underdogs win on points in 54% of Super Bowls over a statistically significant sample of 1,000 Super Bowls or so. We will not live long enough to find out if Professor Levitt is correct. But, it is interesting to keep track of Super Bowl data as the years go by.

Part-time NFL analyst and full-time public policy pundit Gregg Easterbrook http://search.espn.go.com/gregg-easterbrook/ recommended taking all home teams in the quarter-final round of the NFL playoffs based on the 73% winning record straight-up of home teams in the quarter-final round over the full history of NFL playoffs in this format going back to 1990. ESPN blowhard John Kincade calls this advice lazy based on the last several years with home teams only winning 50%. 2-2 this year is too small a sample size to say who is correct on a consistent, long-term basis. We won't know for sure until 1,000 games have been played over the next 200+ years. But, this year Kincaid called it better than Easterbrook.

Condolences to long-suffering Jet fan and former Godiva toy boy Reginald who remains unlucky in all his love affairs -- with football and the ladies.

NFL 2010 Regular Season Recap

My Record

After 49-62-1 the final 7 weeks, I fell to 50.6% winners for the season or 126-123-7. I ran just behind a simple all-underdog strategy going 5-6 with "value overdog" picks. I did not have a winning week after week 10. All in all, rather a disappointing season after a promising start.

I have been participating in a season-long NFL pool picking winners against the point spread since 2001 when my then toy boy Reginald persuaded me that there was no better way for an English lass like me to immerse myself in North American culture. Over the past 10 years, I racked up a 52% winning record beating the pants off long-gone Reginald and most other foolish men who analyze each and every game in mind-numbing detail.

My Approach

It's no accident that my long-term record is right on the money with the 52% historical winning record for a simple all-underdog approach. I pick mostly underdogs leavened by a small selection of what I call "value overdogs". Most years, my approach will place you in the middle of the pack. But, statistical analysis indicates that 1 out of every 6 years on average, I will pick more than 55% of all games correctly (e.g., 141-115 or better). 55% or better should be enough to give you a chance to win a pool prize. If you are a contender once every 6 years, you will be doing well.

CFL 2010 Recap

For the 2nd year running, I correctly picked SASKATCHEWAN to cover over Montreal in the Canadian Football League championship game. Saskatchewan fell to 3-15 in Grey Cups. If there is another professional sports team with a worse record in finals, I can't think who it might be. (Apologies to the prairie family of offical Lady G toy boy and fiance Archibald.)

I finished 7-6 with my "value overdog" picks this year, but am 11-15 over 2 years. For the past 2 seasons as a whole including playoffs, I am 84-70 or 54.5%. A simple all-underdog strategy leads the way at 88-66 or 57.1%. Does anyone out there have any historical data on CFL underdogs?

TORONTO MAYOR RACE

Archibald wants the world to know his prediction that George Smitherman would win the race for Toronto Mayor IF former Deputy Mayor Joey Pants fell to less than 10% of the vote proved to be correct. Archibald prognosticated that if Joey Pants cracked the 10% threshold as indeed he did, high school football coach Rob Ford would be Mayor. Archibald, get your own blog!

Major League Baseball 2010 Recap

(Revised 2 November 2010)

I incorrectly picked Texas to take the World Series.

I based my pick on evidence of American League (AL) superiority. The AL has won 9 of the past 15 World Series and 12 of the past 19. Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won 13 of the last 14 all-star games to reach a decision and 18 of the last 22.

AL teams finished 134-118 or 52.3% against their National League (NL) rivals in 2010 interleague play.

2010 marked the 7^th consecutive year of AL superiority starting in 2004. However, 2010 was the best year for the NL since 2004 when they took 49.8% of all interleague contests. And, kudos to the NL for finally winning an all-star game for the first time since 1995. And, if we also consider San Fran's World Series win, perhaps there is preliminary evidence that the NL has found its long-lost mojo.

AL Rules

But, it remains true that the AL sports a 56% record against National League (NL) opponents in over 1,500 regular season and post-season inter-league contests from 2005 through 2010.

I calculate that the AL will win more than 50% of inter-league contests 19 out of every 20 years. I still think that management of NL teams is way behind the more scientific approach implemented by the more advanced and successful AL franchises – Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Twins, As and even the Indians (who admittedly haven't been getting good results the past few years).

It's not just a matter of money. The LA Dodgers, Chicago Cubs or NY Mets could generate the same revenues as the Yankees and Red Sox if they put the right minds to it. Too bad the scarecrow's song in the Wizard of Oz is the motto for most NL franchises: "If I Only Had a Brain".

Interesting to note that San Diego's owners handed management over to a bright spark trained in the Red Sox organization and the Padres got far better results in 2010.

Good move for the Toronto Blue Jays to hire John Farrell, one of the Boston brains, as their new manager.

Implications for Pool Players

Official Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald participates in a friendly, non-profit office pool picking major-league baseball winners in all games over the course of the season.

His pool works like this. He gets:
• 1 point for a win backing an overdog;
• -1 point for a loss backing an underdog;
• +1.x points for a win backing an underdog with 1.x based on the posted odds;
• -1.x points for a loss backing an overdog with 1.x based on the posted odds.

I advise Archibald to pick the AL team in all inter-league games.

Over 260+ games each year, my system generated a net gain for Archibald of 30.75 points in 2008 and 18.45 in 2009.

And, these gains were generated almost entirely by AL road teams visiting NL hosts – 20.95 points in 2008 when AL visitors won 55% of the time against their NL hosts and 20.45 points in 2009 when AL visitors won 54% of the time.

In other words, oddsmakers and their customers may not perceive that the AL is so much better than the NL that AL teams should be favoured most of the time even on the road against the NL.

I was so busy this summer that I did not have time to analyze Archibald's results in 2010 interleague games. Given the NL's slightly better performance this year, I suspect that he broke even at best with my all-AL strategy. But, my guess is that Archibald will do well most years with a consistent all-AL approach until NL managements show signs of catching up with their AL counterparts.

Archibald failed totally with his pre-playoff prediction that the Yankees would defeat the Braves in the 2010 World Series.