This post is based on the faulty predictions of my Canadian toy boy and fiancé Archibald. Get your own blog, Arch, you handsome devil, but maybe you should wait until your predictive powers improve.
I was pleased to see Archibald wrong with his prediction that Finland would win gold in men's ice hockey. He was right to stick with Finland in the bronze medal match on the grounds that Finnish players would be proud to win a bronze, while the USA semi-final losers wouldn't care about the bronze.
Olympic men’s ice hockey has been quite competitive from 1998 on when top professionals started playing, but Canada has started to assert their dominance.
Canada: 3 golds = 9 points under 3, 2, 1 point system for gold, silver, bronze
Sweden: 1 gold, 1 silver = 5 points
Finland: 1 silver, 3 bronze = 5 points
Czechs: 1 gold, 1 bronze = 4 points
USA: 2 silver = 4 points
Russia: 1 silver, 1 bronze = 3 points
For women’s ice hockey, the Olympics has been a tale of 2 countries:
Canada: 4 golds, 1 silver = 14 points
USA: 1 gold, 3 silver, 1 bronze = 10 points
Sweden: 1 silver, 1 bronze = 3 points
Finland: 2 bronze = 2 points
Switzerland: 1 bronze = 1 point
I was chuffed to see Archibald also wrong with his prediction of USA gold in women's ice hockey. I tease Canadian Archibald about his lack of patriotism. But, he says that when it comes to predicting sporting outcomes, his head rules his heart. Dearest Archibald only blows his cool with yours truly.
Without doubt, Canada's overtime win over USA in the final was the greatest ice hockey match I have ever seen. Also, the only ice hockey match I have seen despite living the past 8 years in Canada. I get lots of work done while dearest Arch wastes his time watching men play ice hockey.
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
NBA Heavy Underdogs 55% ATS 2013-14 Regular Season Recap
Official Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald runs a non-profit pool picking NBA winners against the spread (ATS) over the full season. Players have the right to select 82 games including playoffs. I focus on with picking heavy underdogs with more than 12 points.
I finished 38-31-1 for the regular season or 55% ATS. From 2008-9 through 2013-14, I am 55.26% ATS with heavy underdogs.
Over a long run of the past two decades NBA heavy underdogs have been one of the most reliable picks for non-profit sports pool players. Archibald turned me on to the academic work on NBA heavy underdogs. Ex-Godiva toy boy Reginald believes in wasting his time analysing each and every game before making picks based on subjective hunches. Yet another reason why Reginald is my ex and Archibald is my xxx-man.
I finished 38-31-1 for the regular season or 55% ATS. From 2008-9 through 2013-14, I am 55.26% ATS with heavy underdogs.
Over a long run of the past two decades NBA heavy underdogs have been one of the most reliable picks for non-profit sports pool players. Archibald turned me on to the academic work on NBA heavy underdogs. Ex-Godiva toy boy Reginald believes in wasting his time analysing each and every game before making picks based on subjective hunches. Yet another reason why Reginald is my ex and Archibald is my xxx-man.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
NFL 2013-4 Recap ATS
In the non-profit pool that I swim in naked (of all football knowledge other than Professor Levitt's lessons about gaming market anomalies), I finished 129-129-9 against the spread (ATS) after correctly picking Seattle +1 over Denver in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Underdogs are now 24-22-2 in Super Bowls to date ATS. Professor Leavitt believes that the Super Bowl underdog is the best pick in sports ATS. I would expect underdogs to take 55% of Super Bowls ATS over 1000 matches.
4-7 with my play-off picks combined with my 125-122-9 record for the regular season:
2-3 play-offs and 75-82-5 regular season with road underdog picks;
0-2 play-offs and 44-36-4 regular season home underdogs;
6-4 with my regular season attempts to identify home overdogs with value and 1-2 in the play-offs.
A simple all-homer strategy would be in the top half of most pool parades at 4-6 play-offs and 132-115-9 regular season. An all-underdogs strategy finished 123-124-9 for the regular season and 5-6 in the play-offs. This was only the 5th season out of the last 22 to end up with underdogs as a net loser.
I played in 2 pools and finished tied for 13th out of 62 in one and tied for 16th out of 98 in the other. My pool records are better than my record here on this blog because I take advantage of anomalies in the pool spreads whenever they arise. But, the fact that I did relatively well in both pools even though I was all-even with my base package of picks shows that most pool players tend to ignore pool spread anomalies.
Dearest Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald points out that the NFC won the inter-conference rivalry against the AFC this year 35-30 straight-up thanks entirely to the NFC West's 14-3 record against the AFC. Against the rest of the NFC, the West went 17-7 in the regular season and 3-0 in the play-offs. Arch would have backed Arizona, 3rd best in the NFC West, against Denver in the Super Bowl (SB) on the grounds that he believes Arizona is the 3rd best team in the entire league. It would be interesting to know whether there is any correlation between which conference wins on Super Sunday and which conference wins regular season bragging rights, as was the case this year.
Arch predicts that next year in 2015 the NFC will extend its SB lead over the AFC to 27-22 straight-up and 6-2 over the last 8 and that the victor will be a team from the NFC West. The streakiness in the SB interconference rivalry is striking. After splitting the first 6 SBs with the NFC, the AFC won 8 of the next 9; the NFC then won 15 of the following 16 SBs including 13 in a row from 1985 through 1997; AFC took 8 of the next 10; and NFC has now won 5 of the past 7.
Underdogs are now 24-22-2 in Super Bowls to date ATS. Professor Leavitt believes that the Super Bowl underdog is the best pick in sports ATS. I would expect underdogs to take 55% of Super Bowls ATS over 1000 matches.
4-7 with my play-off picks combined with my 125-122-9 record for the regular season:
2-3 play-offs and 75-82-5 regular season with road underdog picks;
0-2 play-offs and 44-36-4 regular season home underdogs;
6-4 with my regular season attempts to identify home overdogs with value and 1-2 in the play-offs.
A simple all-homer strategy would be in the top half of most pool parades at 4-6 play-offs and 132-115-9 regular season. An all-underdogs strategy finished 123-124-9 for the regular season and 5-6 in the play-offs. This was only the 5th season out of the last 22 to end up with underdogs as a net loser.
I played in 2 pools and finished tied for 13th out of 62 in one and tied for 16th out of 98 in the other. My pool records are better than my record here on this blog because I take advantage of anomalies in the pool spreads whenever they arise. But, the fact that I did relatively well in both pools even though I was all-even with my base package of picks shows that most pool players tend to ignore pool spread anomalies.
Dearest Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald points out that the NFC won the inter-conference rivalry against the AFC this year 35-30 straight-up thanks entirely to the NFC West's 14-3 record against the AFC. Against the rest of the NFC, the West went 17-7 in the regular season and 3-0 in the play-offs. Arch would have backed Arizona, 3rd best in the NFC West, against Denver in the Super Bowl (SB) on the grounds that he believes Arizona is the 3rd best team in the entire league. It would be interesting to know whether there is any correlation between which conference wins on Super Sunday and which conference wins regular season bragging rights, as was the case this year.
Arch predicts that next year in 2015 the NFC will extend its SB lead over the AFC to 27-22 straight-up and 6-2 over the last 8 and that the victor will be a team from the NFC West. The streakiness in the SB interconference rivalry is striking. After splitting the first 6 SBs with the NFC, the AFC won 8 of the next 9; the NFC then won 15 of the following 16 SBs including 13 in a row from 1985 through 1997; AFC took 8 of the next 10; and NFC has now won 5 of the past 7.
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
Canadian Football League CFL 2013 Recap
To humour my Canadian toy boy and fiance Archibald, I participate in his non-profit CFL pool against the spread (ATS). My Grey Cup pick lost ATS for the 1st time in 5 years of picking.
Losing the Grey Cup left me at 36-38-3 for the season -- my first losing season in 5 years of picking. I finished 25-20-3 with road underdog picks, 6-12 home underdogs, 3-5 home overdogs and 2-1 road overdogs. I am still 54.5% over the past 5 years picking CFL winners ATS starting with 2009 -- not enough matches to be statistically significant, but nevertheless I am proud of my good fortune up until this year. Of course, it's the same record over 5 years as a simple all-underdogs strategy.
Arch pointed out that western teams were 20-14 straight-up against eastern teams in 2012 including losing the Grey Cup. This year in 2013 the west was even stronger at 21-12 against the east straight-up and 18-15 ATS. Arch was confident that the west would win the Grey Cup especially with SASKATCHEWAN hosting. Last year in 2012, Toronto won the Cup outright lifting the east to even-Stephen 17-17 ATS vs. the west in 2012. SASKATCHEWAN is now 4-15 in Grey Cup finals -- a losing record in championships rivalled only by the Brooklyn Dodgers 1-10 record in the World Series.
Losing the Grey Cup left me at 36-38-3 for the season -- my first losing season in 5 years of picking. I finished 25-20-3 with road underdog picks, 6-12 home underdogs, 3-5 home overdogs and 2-1 road overdogs. I am still 54.5% over the past 5 years picking CFL winners ATS starting with 2009 -- not enough matches to be statistically significant, but nevertheless I am proud of my good fortune up until this year. Of course, it's the same record over 5 years as a simple all-underdogs strategy.
Arch pointed out that western teams were 20-14 straight-up against eastern teams in 2012 including losing the Grey Cup. This year in 2013 the west was even stronger at 21-12 against the east straight-up and 18-15 ATS. Arch was confident that the west would win the Grey Cup especially with SASKATCHEWAN hosting. Last year in 2012, Toronto won the Cup outright lifting the east to even-Stephen 17-17 ATS vs. the west in 2012. SASKATCHEWAN is now 4-15 in Grey Cup finals -- a losing record in championships rivalled only by the Brooklyn Dodgers 1-10 record in the World Series.
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