Scotland Independence Referendum

With all the news about Scotland's vote on independence, I have been recalling my undergrad years in the 1990s at University of St Andrews.
I loved being the only Coventry lass on campus surrounded by all those handsome red-headed barries (= scots slang for sweet, sexy lads).
My boyfriends at St Andrews reflect the divisions in Scots society now playing out in the referendum campaign.
Seamus was my main fancy man -- the scion of an aulde establishment family. I was going through a "First I look at the purse" phase, so I was happy enough to be squired about town by Seamus and has large wallet. He kept me in ribbons and pearls for almost four years.
But, as a man, he was rather boring. Not so, Sean the dashing tutorial assistant in my 1st year biology course who wore his kilt to every class. Sean never quite finished his Ph.D. and never rose above TA. His wee joke was that he was too busy with his T and A duties to get around to his thesis.
In 1st year, I fell into the unfortunate habit of dropping by Sean's library carrel 3 times a week for special tutoring. He would close the blinds on his carrel window and doors and then insist that biology could only be learned without clothing. I certainly learned a lot about biology. So much so, that I signed up every year for whatever course Sean was TAing. As a side benefit, I received A+ in all my assignments. Sean teased me by telling me that my A+s were for my diligence as a great kisser.
For almost four years, Seamus remained in the dark about my doings in the dark with Sean until that unhappy day that my former BFF Deirdre took it upon herself to bring Seamus up to date with my two-timing.
Where are they now? Seamus and Deirdre are unhappily married. Seamus is chair of his local Conservative Party constituency association. I hear that he can hold his party meetings in a small pub booth with room to spare. He and his Conservative mates are busy campaigning for the no side to keep Scotland in the United Kingdom.
Sean has never left the uni scene. Without a Ph.D., he's still a TA -- no longer at St Andrews but now at the University of the West of Scotland (Dumfries campus). I've kept in touch with Deirdre and she tells me that Sean still has a reputation for awarding A+s to pet students who come in for special hands-on help. Naturally, he's a Scots Nationalist activist.
If I could vote as an honorary Scot, I would vote with boring Seamus against Sean who is loads of fun, but having never grown up has remained poor. I fear that Sean's fate would be writ large as Scotland's future if the Scots vote for independence next week.
When it comes to Scotland's future, "First I look at the purse" still seems like a good approach. I do hope that Scotland votes no on the 18th, so that in future Coventry lasses like myself can still enjoy your wonderful St Andrews lads without having to cross a border that has not existed for 400 years since James I came down from Scotland to be crowned king of England.
Note that Nobel prize-winner Paul Krugman warns that an independent Scotland will likely have to start their own currency -- a difficult job indeed. Be careful what you wish for, Scotland, you just might get it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html
Note: Names and descriptions of individuals mentioned in this blog note have been altered to protect the guilty. 

NFL 2014-15 Recap ATS

In official Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald's non-profit pool picking National Football League (NFL) winners against the spread (ATS), I swim naked of all football knowledge other than Professor Leavitt's lessons about gaming market anomalies. I was wrong about the Super Bowl picking SEATTLE over NE. Underdogs are now XXIV-XXIII-II ATS in the first LXIX Super Bowls and still in line with Professor Steven Levitt's prediction that the Super Bowl underdog will be the best bet in sports over a statistically significant M matches. The NFC leads the AFC XXVI-XXIII.

I pride myself on leaving emotions out of my picks, but was pleased to pick against Coach Bill Belicheat.
http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/01/19/new-england-patriots-deflategate-bill-belichick-tom-brady
My Canuck canoodler Arch points out the uncanny similarities between Coach Belicheat and Canadian Prime Minister Darth Harper and former American President Richard Nixon.

I am satisfied to finish 134-130-3 ATS overall for the full year: 4-7 in the playoffs after finishing the regular season at 130-123-3. Overall, I was 85-77-2 road underdogs, 
39-43-1 home underdogs and 10-10 attempting to identify "value" home overdogs. I finished behind the best of the simple plain-vanilla approaches in 2014: all-roadies at 138-126-3. 
The all-underdogs approach remains the long-run champion having defeated all-favorites yet again in 2014 for the 18th underdog triumph over the past 23 years since 1992 averaging 51.7% over that span. 
The elite 8 round was the one week of the year when I pick all overdogs based on public policy expert and NFL hobbyist Gregg Easterbrook (aka TMQ = Tuesday Morning Quaterback), who reports that the 1 and 2 seeds have won 73 out of 100 matches in this round. In the regular season, overdog favourites win about 2/3 of all matches and just under 1/5 of matches turn on points. I doubt that the spreads in this playoff round are large enough to turn around the overdog advantage over the 500 years of data that we would need to test my proposition. Nevertheless, 2 of the 3 straight-up overdog winners this year lost ATS.
http://search.espn.go.com/gregg-easterbrook/
I ended up in the middle of all 3 pools that I play in.  
A final Boo-Yah to the memory of the great ESPN sports anchor Stuart Scott. When I was a grad student at Indiana Institute of Technology, my toy boy of the time Reginald insisted that we watch SportsCenter before going to bed and I was always glad he did. During our break-up (caused by Reginald's failure to address his gambling addiction), he would tell me that I was cooler than the other side of the pillow. Reginald, I hope you recognize that you never had it so good and never will again.  
http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/12118296/stuart-scott-espn-anchor-dies-age-49

Canadian Football League CFL 2014 Recap

To humour my Canadian toy boy and fiance Archibald, I participate in his non-profit CFL pool against the spread (ATS). I was pleased to get the Grey Cup final correct  by picking ATS Hammertown Tiger Cats +7.5 over BC.

I finished 42-41-3 for the year ATS: 5-4-2 with home underdogs, 17-21 with road underdogs, 12-11-1 with home overdogs and 8-5 road overdogs. I ended up behind the best of the plain-vanilla strategies -- all-overdogs far ahead of me at 45-38-3.

I am 53.777% over 6 years picking CFL winners ATS from 2009 through 2014. Not enough matches to be statistically significantly better than 50% dart-throwing, but I am still proud of my good fortune. However, before I start calling myself the CFL ATS Nostradamus, I must stay ahead of the 53% record of a simple all-underdogs strategy over these past 6 years.

Arch points out that western teams were 70-39 straight-up against eastern teams in 2012 through 2014 and 58-51 ATS. Arch was early out on a limb correctly predicting that the 4th place team in the west would cross over to the eastern playoffs. He failed with his prediction that the 4th place western team would win the eastern playoffs and Grey Cup ATS. He switched to predicting that Calgary would win the Grey Cup ATS. Archibald made a persuasive case as always, but I won backing the underdog based on Professor Leavitt's advice to back the underdog in the Super Bowl. If anyone out there has a history of Grey Cup point spreads, it would be interesting to see whether the underdogs are ahead ATS.

NBA Playoffs 2014 ATS Recap

My all-overdog approach for this year's playoffs finished 38-48-3.

Perchance my losing 44% record this year against the spread (ATS) reflects the fact that I do not watch basketball even though official Godiva toy boy/fiancé Archibald can't get enough roundball.

Each spring dearest Archibald organizes a friendly, non-profit NBA office pool. The winner is the contestant who picks the most winners ATS over at least 81 regular season matches plus all playoff matches. All matches are weighted equally. I finished 19th comfortably ahead of Archibald whose sports nous is inversely related to his hunk quotient.

To humour Archibald, I participate by relying on economists' studies showing that "heavy" underdogs win more than their fair share of basketball games against the point spread, while "non-heavy" overdogs win slightly more than 50% (although this particular result is not statistically significant).

www.entrepreneur.com/tradejournals/article/print/179073423.html

Over 7 years since 2008 of swimming naked (of roundball knowledge) in Archibald's pool, I am 53.1% ATS.

But, before I get carried away and start billing myself as the NBA playoff Nostradamus, just by picking all overdogs in every NBA playoff game for the past 7 years starting with 2008, you would be sporting a slightly better bettor record of 53.3% ATS.