Pick | +/- | Against |
Houston | +4.5 | MINNIE |
CINCI | +7.5 | Jaxville |
KC | +8.5 | T Bay |
Baltimore | +1.5 | CLEVE |
BUFFALO | -5.5 | NY Jets |
ST. LOUIS | +3 | Arizona |
Detroit | +13 | CHICAGO |
TENN | -5.5 | G Bay |
Miami | +3 | DENVER |
OAKLAND | +3 | Atlanta |
NY G | -9 | Dallas |
SEATTLE | +6.5 | Philly |
New E | +5.5 | INDY |
Pitts | +2 | WASH |
Week 8 results:
Picks | Wins | Losses | Tie |
All | 5 | 8 | 1 |
Home Faves | 2 | ||
Home Dogs | 2 | 1 | |
Road Dogs | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Best Bets | 1 | 2 | |
Readers' Choice | Pittsburgh -2.5 | ||
Season so far:
Picks | Wins | Losses | Tie | % |
All | 51 | 61 | 4 | 46% |
Home Faves | 14 | 17 | 1 | 45% |
Home Dogs | 15 | 16 | 1 | 48% |
Road Dogs | 21 | 27 | 2 | 44% |
Road Faves | 1 | 1 | 50% | |
Best Bets | 11 | 13 | 2 | 46% |
Readers' Choice | 2 | 5 | 1 | 31% |
Comments:
5-6-1 against the spread with my base package of underdog picks in week 8 and 0-2 with overdogs. For the past year and a half, I've lost my gift for identifying overdog winners against the spread and have trailed the winning percentage of a plain-vanilla all-underdogs strategy over a period when the all-underdogs approach has failed to record its usual premium performance based on the historical trend. Here's hoping my system comes right for underdogs on the whole and for my 3 "value" overdogs in week 9.
World Series:
The Phillies overcame the National League (NL) talent deficit to take the World Series decisively 4 games to 1. It's good for spectator interest in the World Series for the NL to win every now and then. And indeed, the NL has won 2 of the past 3 World Series and 4 of the past 8.
Nevertheless, the full record of recent inter-league play offers conclusive proof of American League (AL) superiority. The AL has won 7 of the past 11 World Series and 10 of the past 16. Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won the last 11 all-star games to reach a decision and 17 of the last 20. Plus the AL sports a 57% record against National League (NL) opponents in over 1,000 regular season inter-league contests from 2005 through this season.
After factoring in the World Series, an all-AL strategy for the regular season, All-Star game and World Series still generated a net gain of +30.75 pool points over 258 inter-league contests in a non-profit 2008 baseball pool with points for each game based on the posted odds. Philadelphia's victory in a best 4-of-7 series came against odds almost as long and tall as Lady G herself. Until the NL gets back to even over a full season of regular season contests, continue picking the AL in your non-profit baseball pools.
No comments:
Post a Comment