After losing my game 7 pick of Santonio +6 over MIAMI, I finished 45-40 against the spread (ATS) for the playoffs this year or 52.9% including 4-3 with my underdog picks.
I played netball as a lass in England while experimenting with sexual orientation with lovely, tall and slender Penelope. But, as an adult on the straight and narrow, I do not watch basketball even though official Godiva toy boy/fiancé Archibald can't get enough roundball.
Each spring dearest Archibald organizes a friendly, non-profit office pool for the NBA playoffs. The winner is the contestant who picks the most winners ATS over all playoff matches. All matches are weighted equally.
To humour Archibald, I participate by relying on economists' studies showing that "heavy" underdogs win more than their fair share of basketball games ATS, while "non-heavy" overdogs win slightly more than 50% (although this particular result is not statistically significant).
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I take most overdog favourites. I finished well out of the prizes this year. But, over 6 years since 2008 of swimming naked (of roundball knowledge) in Archibald's pool, I am 54.7% ATS.
But, before I get carried away and start billing myself as the NBA playoff Nostradamus, just by picking all overdogs in every NBA playoff game for the past 6 years starting with 2008, you would be sporting a 54.9% record ATS. Archibald disagreed with my Spurs pick. I agreed with Archibald that Miami would likely win the championship. I believe Miami would win 2 out of every 3 game 7s at home against the Spurs if they could play 100 times in the same circumstances. But, I do not believe that Miami would win 50% of game 7s by more than 6 points. Oddsmakers and bettors tend to undervalue the underdog in a high-profile match like game 7 of the NBA finals. Miami covered the point spread by 1 this year, but I still believe that the Spurs offered better value.
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