NFL picks 2025: Have Underdogs lost their mojo?

I will keep track of the all-underdogs record for the National Football League (NFL) 2025 season. 

Against the spread (ATS), underdogs are losing for the 3rd straight year at 78-84-1 or 48% after 11 weeks = 45-51-1 road underdogs + 33-33 home underdogs. 

For 3 decades through the 2022 regular season, home NFL underdogs was the best bet in sports -- not every year, but most years. 

So far this year, overdog favorites have a 67% winning record before taking the spread into account. Only 15% of matches have been reversed on points against the spread (ATS). 

The overdog winning % is a touch above the long-term trend. 

Fewer matches have been decided on points than we might expect. That result so far is consistent with the hypothesis that the long-time misperception is no longer there in the betting market that overdog favorites will win by larger margins than turn out to be the case. I suspect that the average winning margin is unusually large this year, but need to check that. 

Could it possibly be the case that NFL underdogs no longer rule?

A simple all-underdogs strategy recorded 25 winning NFL regular seasons out of 31 through 2022. But, underdogs lost the last 2 NFL regular seasons and are well on the way to losing again in 2025. 

Have bettors finally twigged to the fact that they overestimated overdog favorites for years through 2022? It's possible. I expect underdogs to win a bit more than 1/3 of all matches straight-up and a bit more than 1/6 of all matches on points. Over the previous two seasons, underdogs won a bit less than 1/6 of all matches on points and bit less than 1/3 of all matches straight-up. Are the unusual results of the past 2 seasons just a short-term random walk around the long-term average? Or has the underdog-tilt identified by Professor Steven Levitt vanished? We will need a few more seasons to reach a conclusion. In the meantime, I will stick with regular-season underdogs in 2025 in the just-for-fun pool that Godiva boy toy Archibald introduced me to. I will not abandon my all-underdogs regular season strategy just because of two consecutive bad years.

I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS was not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicity built into odds offered by gambling houses. 

Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for customers, but not workers.

CFL Grey Cup Pick ATS

I was happy to pick correctly SK -3.5 over montreal in the 112th Grey Cup.

I was 2-3 in the play-offs: 1-1 road underdogs in the 1st round and 0-1 home underdog and 0-1 home overdog in the conference championships.

I picked SASquatchEWAN because Godiva toy boy  Archibald points out that western teams are now 290-194-4 or 59.8% straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2025 including Grey Cups and other playoff games. The west was 27-15 straight-up this year including Winterpeg's loss to MONTREAL in the eastern semi-final and the Grey Cup. SASquatchEWAN was 8-1 v. the east.

After 2024, I was starting to accept that the years of western dominance are over. In 2024, east bested west 23-16-2 after winning in 2023 as well. The east won 3 straight Grey Cups from 2022 through 2024. But, the west has now won 12 of the past 19 Grey Cups. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 11-5 ATS picking the past 16 Grey Cups, although I admit to losing the past 3 before this year. 

I am 51% over 15 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners ATS from 2009 on. (I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2025. 2023 was the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. 2023 was my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. 

Arch is too busy with his new hobby to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks are just for fun now. 

Sorry, loyal Godivans. Same problem as last year in 2024. Chaos caused by doesn't-deserve-me Godiva toy boy and and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald preventing me from keeping up during the regular season. And, I have been so caught up helping Godiva toy boy and permanent fiance Arch with his substacking that I still haven't had time to update my CFL picking record for the entire 2024 season. 

2025 Major League Baseball Inter-league Recap

In the 2025 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB's) inter-league rivalry, American League (AL) teams bested their National League (NL) rivals 373 wins to 362 (50.75%) after including the NL winning the World Series + All-Star match. 

The AL East led the way with a 55.5% winning record. The AL champion Blue Jays led the way with a 60% record against the NL even after dropping 4 of 7 to Los Dodgers in the World Series. No AL East squad had a losing inter-league record. The AL West finished at 51%. The AL Central's 46% record against the NL held the AL back. I will predict a Blue Jay win in the World Series based on the AL's superior record this year. I was 2 outs away from being right.  

After 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017, the NL won the inter-league contest for 5 of 7 seasons starting with 2018 through 2024.

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements shrank over the years thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started with AL squads before crossing over to manage NL teams. 

The AL's remaining claim to superiority is winning 10 of the past 12 All-Star contests, 22 of the last 27 to reach a decision and 28 of 36.

Bettors at polymarket.com gave the Toronto Blue Jays only a 32% chance of winning the World Series before the series started. I was one of the happy few picking Toronto over Los Dodgers. After decades of AL superiority in the World Series, the NL has won 5 of the last 7 with Los Dodgers winning 3 of the last 5. Over the last 2 decades from 2006-2025, the NL is ahead 12-8. From 1983 through 2005, the AL won 15 of 22 World Series championships. 

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. For the vast majority, it's not possible to earn a long-term profit gambling.