Showing posts with label major league baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label major league baseball. Show all posts

Thursday, April 3, 2025

2025 Major League Baseball Inter-league Recap

In the 2025 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB's) inter-league rivalry, American League (AL) teams bested their National League (NL) rivals 373 wins to 362 (50.75%) after including the NL winning the World Series + All-Star match. 

The AL East led the way with a 55.5% winning record. The AL champion Blue Jays led the way with a 60% record against the NL even after dropping 4 of 7 to Los Dodgers in the World Series. No AL East squad had a losing inter-league record. The AL West finished at 51%. The AL Central's 46% record against the NL held the AL back. I will predict a Blue Jay win in the World Series based on the AL's superior record this year. I was 2 outs away from being right.  

After 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017, the NL won the inter-league contest for 5 of 7 seasons starting with 2018 through 2024.

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements shrank over the years thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started with AL squads before crossing over to manage NL teams. 

The AL's remaining claim to superiority is winning 10 of the past 12 All-Star contests, 22 of the last 27 to reach a decision and 28 of 36.

Bettors at polymarket.com gave the Toronto Blue Jays only a 32% chance of winning the World Series before the series started. I was one of the happy few picking Toronto over Los Dodgers. After decades of AL superiority in the World Series, the NL has won 5 of the last 7 with Los Dodgers winning 3 of the last 5. Over the last 2 decades from 2006-2025, the NL is ahead 12-8. From 1983 through 2005, the AL won 15 of 22 World Series championships. 

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. For the vast majority, it's not possible to earn a long-term profit gambling.

Friday, April 2, 2021

MLB Inter-league: 2021 Recap

I incorrectly predicted that the Houston Cheatros would defeat Atlanta in the World Series (WS) based on  American League (AL) superiority. For example, the AL has won 8 all-star matches in a row, 20 of the last 23 to reach a decision and 26 of the last 32.  

With the All-Star game and WS matches included, AL teams bested National League (NL) teams 171-137 (55.375%) in the 2021 instalment of the Major League Baseball (MLB) inter-league rivalry. 

After including the LA Dodgers' 4-2 2020 World Series triumph over the TB Rays, the NL won the annual inter-league contest 3 consecutive years from 2018 through 2020 after 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017. 

Based on 2018-2020, I had thought that the "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements had disappeared. Many brains who started in AL organizations have since been lured to managing NL teams. But, AL dominance in 2021 is consistent with 2004-2017.

Interesting to note that 2021 AL superiority was based almost entirely on the mighty mighty AL East's 64-36 record against the sad-sack NL LEast. Even after including the WS, Atlanta had a 10-16 inter-league record. AL Central teams finished 56-44 against their NL Central rivals with only the AL West lagging at 47% against the NL West.

 

Friday, July 24, 2020

MLB Inter-league 2020: NL Wins

The 2020 instalment of the inter-league rivalry was settled by the World Series. National League (NL) teams and American League (AL) teams finished the regular season even-stephen at 149-149 -- the first regular-season tie in 24 years of inter-league play. 
However, if we include the LA Dodger 4 matches to 2 World Series triumph over the TB Rays, the NL takes the annual inter-league contest for the 3rd consecutive year (after 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017).  
I expected this season to be cancelled because of the COVID-19 virus. From the relative safety of Canada, I can say that the Canadian government was proven correct to have barred the Toronto Blue Jays from playing in Toronto. 

Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Major League Baseball (MLB) Inter-league 2017 Recap

The surest outcome in sports was that American League (AL) teams would win the majority of inter-league matches against their National League (NL) opponents in 2017.

The AL's superiority over many years told us that Houston was the better team and would win World Series (WS) game 7 even visiting Chavez Ravine. The AL representative has won 20 of the past 34 World Series. 

In 2017 AL teams finished 165-143 against NL opponents or 53.57% including a 5th straight AL all-star game triumph and the 7 WS matches. 53.57% in 2017 was below the long-term average over the 14 years of AL domination of inter-league play. Before and after the all-star break, AL teams fell into a 13-33 slump that started with a 2-10 stretch and ended with a 1-10 tailspin. It's interesting that even a 53.57% season-long average can include a 1-10 slide or 9% over 11 matches just as tails can come up 10 out of 11 times once in a blue moon even with a fair coin flip.

The AL has been the superior league by far for more than a decade. 2017 marks the AL's 14th consecutive triumph over the NL starting with 2004. Over the full period of dominance from 2004 on, the AL has won 54.66% of all matches -- regular season, all-star and World Series. 

Nevertheless, over this 14-year period of AL dominance the NL and AL are tied 7-7 in World Series triumphs. However, over this period, the AL has won 40 of 76 WS matches or 52.6%. The NL has had the good luck to distribute its WS match wins efficiently enough to end up tied 7-7. 

Another indicator of the AL's long-term dominance is the fact that the AL has won 17 of the last 20 all-star games to reach a decision and 23 of the last 29.  

The only positive sign for the NL is that the AL's 53.7% inter-league average (including All-Star and World Series matches) from 2010-17 is below the 55.9% average from 2004 through 2009. 

And, with the NY Mets, Chicago Cubs and LA Dodgers now run by AL-analytics-alumunae, the years of NL inferiority may be numbered. The Cubs were the best team in either league in 2016 and were 19-8 in their regular season and World Series matches against AL teams. The Dodgers were 19-10 against AL opposition in 2017 including 7 WS matches. 

The Cubs and Dodgers remain the exception in the NL. Until the analytic approach spreads throughout the NL, the theme for NL management as a whole will continue to be the Scarecrow's song from the Wizard of Oz: "If I only had a brain." 

Interesting piece at the All-Star break suggesting that the NL had indeed closed the gap with the AL in the first half of 2017.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-al-is-still-beating-the-nl-but-maybe-not-for-long/

Monday, April 4, 2016

Inter-league Baseball 2016 Recap

The surest outcome in sports was that American League (AL) teams would win the majority of inter-league matches against their National League (NL) opponents in 2016.

The AL has been the superior league by far and has been for more than a decade. 2016 marks 13 consecutive AL triumphs over the NL starting with 2004. 

AL teams won 54.87% of inter-league matches in 2016 including the AL's 4th consecutive All-Star triumph and Cleveland's 3-4 loss in  World Series matches. I was surprised to see the NL staying even until nearly 1/3 of the way through the year after getting off to a 30-21 start. (The NL's performance this year reminds me of my ex-toy boy Reginald.) The AL finally re-asserted its superiority and finished 2016 a touch above its annual average winning record of 54.746% for the entire 2004-2016 period of AL dominance. 

Nevertheless, over this 13-year period of AL dominance the NL is actually ahead 7-6 in World Series victories. However, over a longer period, the AL representative has won 19 of the past 33 World Series. 

And, the AL has now won 16 of the last 19 all-star games to reach a decision and 22 of the last 28. 

The only positive sign for the NL is that the AL's 53.7% average (including All-Star and World Series matches) from 2010-16 is below the 55.9% average from 2004 through 2009. 

And, with the NY Mets, Chicago Cubs and LA Dodgers now run by AL-analytics-alumunae, the years of NL inferiority may be numbered. The Cubs were the best team in either league in 2016 and were 19-8 in their regular season and World Series matches against AL teams. I stuck with my annual prediction that the AL representative would win the World Series and was wrong yet again. 

The Cubs' success remains the exception in the NL. Until the analytic approach spreads throughout the NL, the theme for most NL management teams will continue to be the Scarecrow's song from the Wizard of Oz: "If I only had a brain" 

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Major League Baseball (MLB) 2015 Inter-league Recap

The American League (AL) representative has now won 19 of the past 32 World Series. The National League (NL) has won 4 of the past 6 in a run of luck for the inferior NL.  

2015 marks the 12th consecutive AL triumph over the NL in 2015 inter-league contests. The AL is the superior league by far and has been for more than a decade.

Including their All-star match and the World  Series triumphs, AL teams finished 172-134 in 2015 or 56% wins against NL teams or right in line with the AL's record of dominance over the past dozen years.

The only positive sign for the NL is that the AL's 53.5% average (including All-Star and World Series matches) from 2010 on is below the 55.9% average from 2004 through 2009 and below the annual average winning record of 54.7% for the entire 2004-2015 period of AL dominance.

The AL has also won 15 of the last 18 all-star games to reach a decision and 21 of the last 27.

Kansas City won the World Series despite KC misManager Ned Yost being a know-nothing, anti-analytics, play-hunches fool.  

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-manager-john-gibbons-is-no-ned-yost-but-he-does-follow-hunches-that-defy-the-numbers

Yost's decisions to bat Escobar 1st in the order despite his 29% on-base average during the regular season and to play Alex Rios with a 29% on-base average, instead of Jarrod Dyson at 31% on-base and more power, reduced KC's run-scoring potential.

Admittedly, in the 6 games against Toronto, Escobar won the Most Valuable Player award with a 48% on-base average and 65% slugging. And, Rios wasn't far behind at 37% on-base and 52.6% slugging. Perhaps Yost is the wisest fool in baseball just as James I was dubbed the wisest fool in Christendom. 

In the World Series (WS), I predicted that the laws of probability told us that Escobar's on-base % would be closer to his 30% regular season career average than his 35% play-off career average and Rios' would be closer to his 29% regular season performance. Escobar led off with a 23% on-base in the WS and Rios had a 13% on-base. KC won because they have a lot of good players and Met misManager Terry Collins made many bad decisions.

The other interesting aspect of the World Series match-up was that the Mets are one of the most AL-type teams in the NL. The Mets are Oakland East with Sandy Alderson in charge and two of Billy Beane's assistants assisting Alderson. With the Mets and Chicago Cubs bringing AL-style analytics to the NL, the years of NL inferiority may be numbered. 

Toronto Blue Jays

I had a conflict of interest when Toronto faced a NL squad -- 12-8 for 2015. Official Godiva toy boy and fiancé Archibald and I had a friendly wager. If the AL's winning % against the NL for the entire 2015 season betters the Blue Jays' record, dearest Archibald has to treat me like the Queen of Sheba for a day. Conversely, if the Blue Jays better the AL's mastery over the NL, I have to dress up and act like the Queen of Sheba paying court to King Solomon for a day. I have been rehearsing with my favourite recording of Handel's Entrance of the Queen of Sheba.

Arch and his beloved Blue Jays finished 1st in the AL East at 93-69 or 57.4%. My prognostication of continued Lady G mastery over Archibald based on AL domination over the NL exceeding the Blue Jays' win percentage is in jeopardy with only play-offs left for Jays and World Series as the culmination of inter-league play. 

Blue Jays led MLB averaging 5.5 runs/match scored in the regular season and 13th best allowing 4.14 runs/match for a MLB-best run differential of +1.36/game. They are in the playoffs for the 1st time since 1993. The only reason that they were only a 57% team was their 15-28 regular season record in one-run matches, which was almost entirely due to bad luck. Also, bad luck that the Jays were eliminated in game 6 of the semi-final series against KC in another one-run loss -- so, 15-29 combined regular season + play-offs in one-run matches.

I am amazed at what they did with minor-leaguers Pillar, Colabello, Thole, Pennington and Goins in the line-up regularly. Colabello hit like an all-star this year rather than the career journeyman that he has been up to now. Pillar and Goins both impersonated major-leaguer hitters with Goins leading the AL in on-base % in August. This was amazing for a player who was one of the worst hitters in the MLB last year. Goins at age 27 came close to matching his minor-league hitting numbers this year in MLB, which is very unusual. Devon Travis was doing the same (at age 24 and a bit less surprising) before he went down with injury. I kept waiting in vain for the true minor-league talent levels to emerge as the season wore on. Justin Smoak at a relatively advanced age for making a breakthrough also hit this year well-above his prior MLB levels. I owe all these guys an apology for doubting them all year. It's the way-above-expectations production from their back-end hitters that made the Jays 1st in runs scored. As we cricket fans say: "The tail wagged." And, the tail of the Toronto's batter order continued to wag for part of the play-offs. Pillar was well above his regular season in the play-offs with a 1/3 on-base average while slugging almost 50%.

Could they really continue producing like the regular season in the play-offs? The Jays had uncanny good luck hitting with runners in scoring position in the regular season. They led MLB with a 35.9% on-base with runners in scoring position (RISP) vs. 34% overall. My premise is that what looks like clutch hitting is just dumb luck. RISP on-base % fell way off in the play-offs. I expect to see the Jays' runs/match fall back to the pack next year. 

Including the playoffs, the Jays were 8-53 or less than 15% in matches when they scored 3 runs or less and 90-22 or better than 80% when they scored more than 3. All teams have a split like that, but my guess is that the split is particularly extreme for the Jays and that more than 1/3 of matches with 3 runs or fewer was unusually high for a team averaging 5.5 runs/match. I predicted that this did not bode well for play-off success when the Jays were more likely to be in close, low-scoring matches against elite pitchers. And, I was correct. The Jays were 0-5 in play-off matches when they scored 3 runs or less.

The trade of declining-with-age, overpaid Reyes for declining 30-year-old Tulowitzki did not help the Jays much this year and I predict will hurt in future years as Tulowitzki continues to decline as a hitter while making $20 million/year through 2019 followed by $14 million in 2020 when he will be 36. 

That being predicted, I have to note that the Jays started 31-9 with Tulowitzki. Tulowitzki is certainly better defensively than Reyes, but not by enough to account for the 31-9 streak. It's just a coincidence that Tulowitzi arrived just as the rest of the Jays got hotter than Archibald under the influence of a full moon. Tulowitzki batted poorly in the play-offs with a 24% on-base average. With 2 3-run homers and one bases-loaded double, he was the AL play-off RBI leader. But, in my view that was just a small sample fluke. 

LaTroy Hawkins, who also came to the Jays in the Tulowitzki trade, helped in the bullpen during the regular season but seemed spent in the play-offs. The three pitching prospects sent to Colorado will likely be worth more than Tulowitzki in future years. When the trade went down, I predicted that last-place Colorado would make play-offs before the Jays. I continue to believe that both Mets and Miami got the better of their trades with the Blue Jays after the 2012 season. I also predicted that both Mets and Marlins had better prospects of making the playoffs before the Jays as a result. 

I have to eat humble pie and admit being wrong with my prediction of a continued Jay play-off drought. However, I remain the only person in Canada who believes that it will be better for the Jays' long-term future now that General misManager Anthopoulos has been fired. (I know Anthopoulos was not fired technically, but the Jay owners made him an offer to renew his contract that he could refuse.)

Hiring Cleveland General Manager (GM) Mark Shapiro as new Blue Jay President is a good sign. Unlike Anthopoulos, Shapiro is a "value-for-money" operator. I thought that Shapiro would keep Anthopoulos in place for at least another 2 years, and then if the Jays stumbled in 2016 and 2017, Shapiro would bring in his own choice as GM. Gutsy move by Shapiro to get rid of Anthopoulos right away.

I view Anthopoulos as similar to a mutual fund manager who follows an active stock-picking strategy. An active stock-picker can lead the mutual fund annual tables due to good luck in any given year, but over the long haul a "value indexer" like Billy Beane in Oakland will continue to post a better record than whoever is running the Jays until Toronto brings in a quantitative analyst to run the team. Anthopoulos will get another job quickly. Let's keep track of Anthopoulos vs. Shapiro for the rest of their careers on a wins per $ basis. 

I predicted that the Jays would go 8-4 in matches started by David Price vs. 6-6 if they had put Aaron Sanchez back in the rotation. The Jays went 9-2 in regular season matches started by Price and one of the losses was misManager Gibbons' fault. The Price was not right in the play-offs -- 1-3 in games in which he has appeared and he pitched badly in 3 of 4. Small-sample bad luck had a lot to do with that. Price is a great bowler (I can't get away from my cricket upbringing), but will not be worth the huge, long-term contract that he will get from Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox or Cubs.  

Jays finished 1st in the AL East ahead of the Yankees easily as ESPN talk radio host Mike Greenberg and ESPN commentator Rick Sutcliffe predicted right after the Tulowitzki and Price trades. 

In 2015, Jays started 23-30, then went on a 14-2 streak followed by 13-19, then 42-14 to clinch 1st or the best extended stretch in team history with 75% wins over more than 1/3 of a season. 6-10 in play-offs and remainder of regular season after clinching 1st in the AL East. As I predicted, it was hard for such a streaky team to win 3 play-off rounds. 


Bill James wrote a famous article showing that Detroit's 35-5 start in 1984 could not likely be a run of good luck by a mediocre team. Over 40 games, the chances of a mediocre team posting a 35-5 record are tiny. The same is true for the Jays 42-14 streak this year. The 2015 Jays -- right up there with the 1984 Tigers and the 2013 LA Dodgers 42-8 streak for the best hot streaks in modern MLB history -- truly were a very good team in 2015. 

I am still sceptical of the Jays' future prospects. If I get time before the start of the 2016 season, I would like to look at 2015 "batting average balls in play" (BABIP) numbers for Goins, Pillar and other Jay hitters and the pitchers as well. Is it possible for an entire team to have an unusually lucky BABIP year on both sides of the ball? Of course, a lower BABIP for Jay opponents this year might reflect better Jay fielding. Another possible reason for the Jays' pitching success this year may be that Manager Gibbons has finally embraced defensive infield shifts. Again, if and when I have time, I would like to compare the Jays' shift rates in 2015 to 2014 and 2013. 

Archibald was so confident that this is the year for the Blue Jays that he has promised to end our long engagement and marry me outside the Skydome the day after the Blue Jays win the World Series. On 2nd thought, perhaps Archibald made this rash pledge because he was not confident in his Blue Jays winning. I'm starting to think that he likes being engaged more than he wants to be married. Luckily for me, I do not have to squeeze myself into the wedding dress that I bought second-hand years ago when dearest Archibald first accepted my proposal. The dress fit like a glove then, but not so flattering now -- I look more like a sausage bursting out of my wrapping -- thanks to the calorie-rich vegan meals that Arch puts in front of me at the end of my busy day. Luckily for yours truly, love is blind and Arch still sees the ravishing figure I sported when we first met. Both the Jays and yours truly have to wait until next year for our big day.

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Major League Baseball (MLB) Inter-league 2014 Recap

I was wrong picking Kansas City over San Fran in the World Series, but I remain convinced that KC as the superior team would win about 540 out of 1,000 matches against SF. KC defeated SF in 6 out of 10 matches this year outscoring 43-36 in total runs. It just happens that SF put together a lucky 4-out-of-7 sequence to win the Series. 

The American League (AL) representative has won 18 of the past 31 World Series, but the. National League (NL) has won 4 of the past 5 in a run of luck for the inferior league. 

Through the regular season and including the All-Star game and World Series, AL teams finished 167-141 vs. NL teams -- or 54.2% for 2014 just below the 54.6% average over the last 11 years of AL dominance. The AL is the superior league by far and has been for more than a decade. 

The AL has now recorded 11 consecutive triumphs in annual inter-league contests. The only positive sign for the NL is that the AL's 53% average from 2010 to 2014 is below the 55.9% average from 2004 through 2009.

There's more to AL superiority than just the Yankees and Red Sox financial advantage. Case in point -- this year  the Yankees and Red Sox are still making money and paying big contracts, but both are below-AL-average on the field, yet the AL is still winning the inter-league race.

The AL has also won 14 of the last 17 all-star games to reach a decision and 20 of the last 26. 


The AL dominates despite dearest Archibald's beloved Toronto Blue Jays whose management theme song is: "If I only had a brain."

Until mid-September, the BJays had a remote chance of making the playoffs in 2014 for the 1st time since winning the 1993 World Series. I remained skeptical throughout the BJays' Jeckyll and Hyde performance this year. Here are the BJays' win-loss streaks over the full season:
8-6
5-11
25-7
11-24
11-2
7-17
9-2
2-8
5-2

Bill James taught us that the longer a hot streak lasts, the more likely the team is truly good. 25-7 was a pretty impressive hot streak. But, 11-24 was an almost as impressive cold streak. The longer a cold streak lasts, the more likely the team is truly bad. 

The BJays finished 3rd in the AL East and 9th out of 15 in the AL at 83-79 = 38-43 in the 2nd half + 45-36 in the 1st half (when they were on track to win 90 games and a certain playoff spot). 

Finishing the year with three minor-leaguers in their line-up of batsmen (to borrow a cricket term from my native England), the BJays need to find some better players to do better in 2015. Trading useful platoon hitter Adam Lind to Milwaukee for batting-practice pitcher Estrada is a step backward. Trading career substitute centre-fielder Gose for the Tigers' top minor league 2nd base prospect might work out although respected analyst Keith Law doesn't think much of the return. Signing 32-year-old Russell Martin for $82 million until he's 36 is another case of throwing good money after bad. I expect to see Houston, Chicago Cubs, NY Mets and Florida Marlins to all make the playoffs before Toronto. The next Toronto management crew will have a horrendous mess to clean up.

The BJays' most impressive win in 2015 was defeating Tiger bowler (to borrow another cricketing term) Justin Verlander in Detroit. Official Godiva toy boy/fiancé Archibald tells me that Verlander's girlfriend is Kate Hudson, a swimmer who wins an important swim race every year and ends up on the cover of Sports Illustrated (SI) as a result. Arch is such a huge sports fan that he even follows swimming and buys that particular SI issue each and every year. Arch's interest in swimming must have something to do with the dearth of sports in February after the Super Bowl. Most recently, dearest Archibald has taken an avid interest in viewing the Apple cloud photos posted by his favourite swim stars from that annual SI issue. He certainly can't get enough of competitive swimming photos.

On a sad note, Archibald and I are sorry to see crowdpicks.com closing down. 
https://www.facebook.com/cassius.almeida.5 put together a great site applying the "wisdom of crowds" idea to picking sporting contests. Maybe there is an academic institution somewhere with an interest in conducting low-cost experiments on the "wisdom of crowds" concept. If so, contact Cassius.

Friday, May 20, 2011

Major League Baseball 2011 Recap

Modified 1 November
American League (AL) teams won 134 of 260 interleague games in 2011 or 51.5%.

2011 is the 8th year running starting with 2004 that AL teams have won more interleague games than their National League (NL) rivals.

But, the NL has now taken 3 of the last 4 World Series contests and 6 of the last 11 as well as the All-Star game for 2 consecutive years. The NL's overall winning % of 48.5% in all 2011 inter-league games is the NL's best performance since 48.8% in 2004. Is the worm turning slowly away from this long period of AL dominance?

Friday, May 22, 2009

Inter-league Baseball

Official Godiva toy boy Archibald participates in a friendly, non-profit office pool picking major-league baseball (MLB) winners in all games over the course of the season.

His pool works like this. He gets:
• 1 point for a win backing an overdog;
• -1 point for a loss backing an underdog;
• +1.x points for a win backing an underdog with 1.x based on the posted odds;
• -1.x points for a loss backing an overdog with 1.x based on the posted odds.

I am advising Archibald to pick the American League (AL) team in all inter-league games.

Forget about analyzing pitching match-ups or home and away records.
The AL sports a 57% record against National League (NL) opponents in over 1,000 regular season inter-league contests from 2005 through 2008. The AL has won 7 of the past 11 World Series and 10 of the past 16. Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won the last 11 all-star games to reach a decision and 17 of the last 20. Last year, this all-AL strategy generated a net gain of +30.75 pool points over 258 inter-league contests.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Baseball All-Star Game Pick

Lady G fancies the American League (AL) -1.4 over National League (or -140 depending on how the points work in your baseball pool)

I usually avoid the cliché “no-brainer” -- unless I’m describing an ex-boyfriend or explaining my correct decision to part ways with an ex. But, picking the AL in the all-star game certainly qualifies as a no-brainer. Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won the last 10 all-star contests to be decided and 16 of the last 19.

The AL has won 7 of the past 10 World Series and 11 of the past 16.

The AL sports a 57% record in a total of over 1,000 inter-league regular season games over the past 4 years.

There haven’t been enough all-star and World Series games to rule out AL dominance as part of random variability. But, the record from the past 1,000 inter-league regular season games provides clear evidence that the AL has a clear majority of the best players in baseball. And, preliminary evidence from this season indicates that oddsmakers may be underestimating AL dominance. Take the AL if you are playing in a non-profit baseball pool that includes picking the all-star game winner.

Friday, June 13, 2008

NBA Final Game 5 and Interleague MLB Advice

Happy Friday the 13th to one and all. My approach to warding off the bad luck gremlins today is to stay indoors until midnight. It’s 90 degrees (Fahrenheit, over 30 Celsius) in Toronto today and we don’t have AC, so I’m naked as a jaybird. Toy boy Archibald, who’s staying home to keep me company, calls me his BJ bird because I’m an English lass -- a bird in English lad lingo -- and the only thing I’m wearing is a Toronto Blue Jays cap.

The Green Lady G is sticking with Boston +6.5 over LA in game 5.


Strange game 4 -- I thought I was certain to lose even with +7.5 and the Celtics came back to win outright. LA scored more points in the 1st 1/4 than in the entire 2nd 1/2. You won't see that every day, especially not in the championship series.

My results so far against the spread:

All my picks 45 wins 37 losses 2 ties (55%)
My overdog picks 42-32-2
My underdog picks 3-5
Spread a factor: 2-9-2

A plain-vanilla, "homer rules" strategy leads the way at 48-34-2 (58%) followed closely by all-overdogs at 47-35-2 (57%).

If you’ve entered a friendly non-profit office pool picking major league baseball (MLB) winners over the course of the season, there’s no better strategy than backing all American League (AL) teams in inter-league contests. In weekend 1 of 2008 interleague play last month, AL teams won 22 of 41 games or 54% despite the fact that National League (NL) teams hosted 8 of 14 series. If your pool points are based on odds posted for those fools who bet on baseball, you would have been +2.2 after 41 games. Let’s stick with the all-AL approach for the rest of the season and see where we end up.

Toy boy Archibald finally tasted defeat with his Euro Cup 2008 soccer football picks. Croatia has qualified from Group B for the ¼ finals and only one of his picks – Germany or Poland – has a chance to qualify and there’s even a slim chance that both will be heading for home after the final group matches.