NBA Finals Game 7

I finished the 2010 playoffs 51-31 or 62.2% to the good against the point spread with a simple all-overdog strategy.

For the past 3 years, I have followed what I call my Gibbs-Gipp system:
http://economics.stanford.edu/files/Theses/Theses_2007/Gibbs2007.pdf
and have called 55.7% of all playoff games correctly against the point spread.

And, over three years of picking NCAA March madness matches, I won 53.9% against the spread.

The statistically significant part of the Gibbs-Gipp system – backing all "heavy" underdogs receiving 12.5 or more points – came through with 61.8% winners over the 2009/10 NBA regular season after delivering a 54.7% success rate against the points in 2008/9.

My complete NBA record for the 2009/10 regular season + playoffs was 62% -- not too shabby if I do say so myself.

Official Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald is still in mourning after the 1^st ever Game 7 finals loss by his beloved Celtics – and to the hated LAkers to boot. When I mentioned that he seemed inconsolable, he begged to differ and got down on his knees to beg yours truly for the sweet consolation that only Lady G can provide.

World Cup Soccer Football

Archibald insists that I pass along his prediction that the Netherlands will win the World Cup. He's even more confident after their 1^st 2 victories. (Get your own sports blog, Arch, and stop mooching off mine.)

As for me, you can take Lady Godiva out of Coventry, but you can't take my heart away from backing England. Too bad we can never find a good keeper or reliable scorer. (Until I met dear Archibald, I felt the same way about men.)

(Amended 21 June 2010)

Inter-league Baseball

Official Godiva toy boy Archibald participates in a friendly, non-profit office pool picking major-league baseball (MLB) winners in all games over the course of the season.

His pool works like this. He gets:
• 1 point for a win backing an overdog;
• -1 point for a loss backing an underdog;
• +1.x points for a win backing an underdog with 1.x based on the posted odds;
• -1.x points for a loss backing an overdog with 1.x based on the posted odds.

I am advising Archibald to pick the American League (AL) team in all inter-league games.

Forget about analyzing pitching match-ups or home and away records.
The AL sports a 57% record against National League (NL) opponents in over 1,000 regular season inter-league contests from 2005 through 2008. The AL has won 7 of the past 11 World Series and 10 of the past 16. Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won the last 11 all-star games to reach a decision and 17 of the last 20. Last year, this all-AL strategy generated a net gain of +30.75 pool points over 258 inter-league contests.

NBA Playoffs Round 2

In your friendly, non-profit NBA playoff pools, stick with overdogs and give the points in all round 2 match-ups until I see a value “underdog”.

Atlanta might eventually get enough points against King James to warrant selection as a “value” underdog, but hold off for now.

After round 1 and 1 game from round 2, I am 24-22 or 52% against the points. There has been no trend at all so far. All-road, all-homer, all-underdog and all-overdog strategies are all 50/50 so far.

Last year, I rode my same system to a 55.8% record in the 2008 NBA playoffs and over two years of picking NCAA March madness matches I did better still at 55.9%.

The statistically significant part of what I modestly call my Gipp-Gibbs system – backing all “heavy” underdogs receiving 12.5 or more points (the Gibbs part of the Gipp-Gibbs system) – came in with 54.7% winners over the 2008/9 NBA regular season.

Let’s see where I am when this year’s playoffs are complete.

Jarhead’s Baseball Update

This comment is courtesy of Godiva toy boy Archibald’s buddy Jarhead.

Are my hometown Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, LA Dodgers, Seattle Mariners and Florida Marlins really as good as their records look?

BJays, St. Louis and Dodgers have benefited from some good luck, but have been the best teams in their divisions. BJays may not be able to keep it up, but so far, so good and so much better than expected.

Seattle and Florida are sub-.500 teams that will sink back to their true levels.

Tampa Bay has been plagued by a run of bad luck and will challenge for 1st just by maintaining the same level of play.

Who’s the best team in New York? The Mets are the best team in the NL East, while the Yankees are lucky to be over .500.

Of course, the American League (AL) has been so much better than the National League (NL) over the past several years that a .500 AL team might be better than a 1st place NL team. Stay tuned for that story when inter-league games begin.

NBA Playoffs Game 1 Picks

Just for fun (and it's always about fun, never money, since you can't make money consistently picking winners against the point spread), I'm following a strategy based on a Stanford undergraduate essay.

http://siepr.stanford.edu/siepr_news/JGibbs_NBA_Analysis.pdf

Based on the statistically not significant part of the strategy, I recommend giving the points and taking all overdog favourites against the point lines in game 1.

Check back with my blog as the playoffs unfold and I will discuss the statistically significant part of the Gibbs plan.