NBA Heavy Underdogs: 59.5% ATS in 2010/11

For the past 3 years, I have followed what I call my Gibbs-Gipp system based on a Stanford undergrad economics essay, which in turn was based on data from 15,859 National Basketball Association (NBA) regular season games played between the 1993–1994 and the 2006–2007 seasons with a point spread greater than 12.

The statistically significant part of the Gibbs-Gipp system – backing all "heavy" underdogs receiving more than 12 points – came through with 59.5% winners over the 2010/11 NBA regular season after delivering 61.8% and 54.7% success rate against the points in 2009/10 and 2008/9 respectively.

Over the past 3 NBA regular seasons averaged together, I am 58%.

NFL Week 10 Picks

Pick	+/-	Against
Denver	+3	CLEVELAND
DETROIT	+6.5	Jacksonville
CHICAGO	+3	Tennessee
NEW E	-3.5	Buffalo
New O	+1	Atlanta
St. Louis	+8	NY JETS
Seattle	+8.5	MIAMI
G Bay	+2.5	MINNIE
Carolina	-9	OAKLAND
K City	+15	SAN DIEGO
Indy	+3.5	PITTSBURGH
NY Giants	+3	PHILLY
HOUSTON	+1	Baltimore
ARIZONA	-9.5	San Fran

Week 9 results:

Picks	Wins	Losses
All	8	6
Home Faves	1	2
Home Dogs	2	3
Road Dogs	5	1
Best Bets	3
Readers' Choice	NY G -9

Season so far:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie	%
All	59	67	4	47%
Home Faves	15	19	1	44%
Home Dogs	17	19	1	47%
Road Dogs	26	28	2	48%
Road Faves	1	1		50%
Best Bets	14	13	2	52%
Readers' Choice	3	5	1	39%

NFL Comments

If I had backed all underdogs (or all overdogs) all year long, I'd be sitting right at 50%, instead of -8. My "value overdog" picks have been dismal this year and last. Nevertheless, I'm sticking to my system and picking 3 more value overdogs this week hoping to turn the tide over the last half of the year.

My sympathies to the Raider Nation. Official Godiva toy boy Archibald's father is losing his marbles, so I know how painful it must be for Raider fans to live through owner Al Davis' King Lear years.

NFL Playoff Team Predictions

With the first half in the books, here are my predictions for who will be in the January playoffs:

AFC
Top 2 seeds	Tennessee Pittsburgh
Other division winners	NY Jets San Diego
Wild cards	New England Baltimore

NFC
Top 2 seeds	NY Giants Arizona
Other divisional winners	Chicago Carolina
Wild cards	Philadelphia Tampa Bay

NBA Underdogs

1 win and 2 losses so far for underdogs of 12.5 points or more.