I play in ex-Godiva toy boy Reginald's non-profit National Basketball Association (NBA) pool picking winners against the point spread (ATS). Heavy underdogs finished 62-50-1 or over 55% ATS for the regular season.
Ride the heavy underdogs is my only advice to current Godiva toy boy and official Godiva fiance Archibald, who gets on so well with Reginald that he plays in all Reginald's pools. My advice follows academic studies showing that "heavy" NBA underdogs with more than 12 points have a statistically significant winning record over a long run of years.
While this is true of regular season matches, I am less certain that the same result can be found in play-off matches. In Reginald's play-off ATS pool, I lost taking GS -5.5 over cleveland in game 7 and finished the play-offs 48-38: 44-34 "light" overdogs and 4-4 "heavy" underdogs.
Archibald was wrong sticking to his prediction after King James fired puppet Coach Blatt: "As a general manager, Lebron is a great player. Is he still glad that he traded Andrew Wiggins for KLove and then compounded the error by resigning KLove? Minnesota will win the NBA title before Cleveland does." I should say that Arch watches sports with his eyes and never consults analytics showing that KLove is the 3rd or 4th best power forward in the NBA. For me, a healthy Chris Bosh would be 3rd and KLove 4th behind Draymond Green 1st and Millsap 2nd. (Draymond was not looking like the best in the 1st 4 matches against OKC. Also, he's a dirty player. I was glad to see him suspended for game 5 of the finals.) Archibald maintains that his prediction was sound and that he could not have predicted that NBA MVP Stephen Curry and his mates would play so poorly and only score 13 points in the 4th quarter of game 7 and no points in the final 4 minutes.
Showing posts with label lebron james. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lebron james. Show all posts
Friday, October 30, 2015
Sunday, November 9, 2014
NBA 2014-15 Recap ATS
Ex-Godiva toy boy Reginald organizes non-profit National Basketball Association (NBA) pools picking winners against the point spread (ATS) in his abundant spare time. My only advice to current Godiva toy boy and official Godiva fiance Archibald, who gets on so well with Reginald that he plays in all Reginald's pools, is to follow academic studies showing that "heavy" underdogs with more than 12 points have a statistically significant winning record over a long run of years. (While this is true of regular season matches, I am less certain that the same result can be found in playoff matches.)
Heavy underdogs finished 54-47-4 or 53% ATS over the 2014-15 regular season -- right in line with the long-term average.
I am 1st in Reginald's heart and memory, but last in his playoff poll at 33-48 or just over 40% ATS picking all overdog favourites so far. (It's interesting to note that there were no heavy underdogs receiving more than 12 points throughout the 2015 playoffs.) I lost 21 overdog picks on points in the playoffs.
Over the last 8 years, I am 51.6% picking playoff games ATS, which is actually a touch below the 51.8% record of a plain-vanilla all-favourites approach.
Interesting to note that the western representative has now won 12 of the last 17 NBA Finals. Over the last 32 years going back to 1984, only 9 teams have won NBA championships.
For Archibald the highlight of 2015 so far was seeing his beloved RAPTORS defeat his almost as beloved T-wolves. Archibald predicted that Minnesota with 2 No. 1 picks in Wiggins and Bennett will win a NBA championship before Cleveland with Lebron, K Love and Kyrie. Dearest Arch believes that as a general manager, Lebron is a great player. Note that Arch made his prediction before K Love and Kyrie went down for the year. However, even Archibald questions the wisdom of Minnie`s Young for Garnett trade and believes Minnie took a step back with that move. And, with Canada's own Tristan Thompson a better fit with King James than KLove, Cleveland has a better team for the NBA Finals at least defensively thanks to the good luck of KLove's injury. If Lebron is as smart as he thinks he is, he will focus his efforts on resigning Thompson and kiss KLove good-bye regardless of whether he wins the championship this year and proves Archibald wrong.
Dearest deluded Archibald also thinks his Raptors will be better next year after being swept in the 1st round by Washington. He can't see that after starting the year 24-7, the Raptors finished 25-30. The Raptor team that finished the 2015 playoffs will struggle to make the playoffs next year without personnel changes and a Lowry recovery from his back issues.
Heavy underdogs finished 54-47-4 or 53% ATS over the 2014-15 regular season -- right in line with the long-term average.
I am 1st in Reginald's heart and memory, but last in his playoff poll at 33-48 or just over 40% ATS picking all overdog favourites so far. (It's interesting to note that there were no heavy underdogs receiving more than 12 points throughout the 2015 playoffs.) I lost 21 overdog picks on points in the playoffs.
Over the last 8 years, I am 51.6% picking playoff games ATS, which is actually a touch below the 51.8% record of a plain-vanilla all-favourites approach.
Interesting to note that the western representative has now won 12 of the last 17 NBA Finals. Over the last 32 years going back to 1984, only 9 teams have won NBA championships.
For Archibald the highlight of 2015 so far was seeing his beloved RAPTORS defeat his almost as beloved T-wolves. Archibald predicted that Minnesota with 2 No. 1 picks in Wiggins and Bennett will win a NBA championship before Cleveland with Lebron, K Love and Kyrie. Dearest Arch believes that as a general manager, Lebron is a great player. Note that Arch made his prediction before K Love and Kyrie went down for the year. However, even Archibald questions the wisdom of Minnie`s Young for Garnett trade and believes Minnie took a step back with that move. And, with Canada's own Tristan Thompson a better fit with King James than KLove, Cleveland has a better team for the NBA Finals at least defensively thanks to the good luck of KLove's injury. If Lebron is as smart as he thinks he is, he will focus his efforts on resigning Thompson and kiss KLove good-bye regardless of whether he wins the championship this year and proves Archibald wrong.
Dearest deluded Archibald also thinks his Raptors will be better next year after being swept in the 1st round by Washington. He can't see that after starting the year 24-7, the Raptors finished 25-30. The Raptor team that finished the 2015 playoffs will struggle to make the playoffs next year without personnel changes and a Lowry recovery from his back issues.
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