I play in ex-Godiva toy boy Reginald's non-profit National Basketball Association (NBA) pool picking winners against the point spread (ATS). Heavy underdogs finished 62-50-1 or over 55% ATS for the regular season.
Ride the heavy underdogs is my only advice to current Godiva toy boy and official Godiva fiance Archibald, who gets on so well with Reginald that he plays in all Reginald's pools. My advice follows academic studies showing that "heavy" NBA underdogs with more than 12 points have a statistically significant winning record over a long run of years.
While this is true of regular season matches, I am less certain that the same result can be found in play-off matches. In Reginald's play-off ATS pool, I lost taking GS -5.5 over cleveland in game 7 and finished the play-offs 48-38: 44-34 "light" overdogs and 4-4 "heavy" underdogs.
Archibald was wrong sticking to his prediction after King James fired puppet Coach Blatt: "As a general manager, Lebron is a great player. Is he still glad that he traded Andrew Wiggins for KLove and then compounded the error by resigning KLove? Minnesota will win the NBA title before Cleveland does." I should say that Arch watches sports with his eyes and never consults analytics showing that KLove is the 3rd or 4th best power forward in the NBA. For me, a healthy Chris Bosh would be 3rd and KLove 4th behind Draymond Green 1st and Millsap 2nd. (Draymond was not looking like the best in the 1st 4 matches against OKC. Also, he's a dirty player. I was glad to see him suspended for game 5 of the finals.) Archibald maintains that his prediction was sound and that he could not have predicted that NBA MVP Stephen Curry and his mates would play so poorly and only score 13 points in the 4th quarter of game 7 and no points in the final 4 minutes.
Friday, October 30, 2015
Thursday, September 10, 2015
NFL Deflategate: Patriot Fumble Watch
(Updated december 2019)
The New England Cheatriots fumbled 14 times in 16 regular season matches in 2015 followed by 27 total fumbles in 2016, 13 fumbles in 2017 and 11 fumbles in 2018. 65 fumbles in 64 regular season matches over 4 years = in line with their 1/match fumble average over the previous 8 regular seasons from 2007 through 2014.
So far in 2019, only 9 fumbles in 14 matches.
However, the Cheatriots fumbled 12 times or 3/match in their first 4 Brady-less matches of 2016 while he was serving his suspension for lying about instructing the Cheatriot equipment managers to deflate his footballs from 2007-8 to 2014-15. In 74 Brady regular season games from 2015 through 2019, only 62 fumbles. Will there never be any end to the Brady Cheatriot's low-fumble magic?
I predicted that we would see the Brady Cheatriots averaging around the NFL average of 1.5 fumbles/match. But, so far Friend-of-Trump Tom he is maintaining his uncanny knack of leading a low-fumble offense.
Before the 2007 season, the National Football League (NFL) changed the rules to allow quarterbacks to prepare their own footballs for use when their teams had the ball. Over 8 regular seasons from 2007 through 2014, the New England Cheatriots averaged 15.125 fumbles/year or just under 1/game. Over the 8 prior regular seasons from 1999 through 2006, the Patriots averaged 24.75 fumbles/year or just over 1.5/game. 1999-2006 was not an unusual period of high fumbling for the Patriots. Over 14 years from 1993 through 2006, the Patriots averaged 25 fumbles/year.
There is no statistically significant evidence confirming that the Cheatriots were fumbling less from 2007 through 2014 because under-inflated footballs are easier to grip and harder for defensive opponents to knock loose. The Atlanta Falcons experienced a very similar decline in fumbles over 2007-14 vs. 1999-2006. And the Detroit Lions experienced a rise in fumbles/year of almost +6. It is difficult to imagine that even the Lions were deliberately over-inflating their footballs.
Now that there has been so much controversy, the NFL has likely been watching football pressure carefully starting with the 2015 Super Bowl. Just for fun, I have been keeping track of the number of New England Cheatriot fumbles. There is so much year-to-year variation in team fumbles that it is not possible to predict any team's fumbles for a given year. But, I expected Patriot fumbles over the 8 years from 2015 through 2022 to come closer to the NFL average of about 22/year than the 2007-14 Patriot average of 15/year.
I have to admit my deep disappointment that there is not yet any circumstantial evidence from the fumble record for the 2015 through 2019 seasons to indicate that Trump friend and supporter Tom Brady was cheating with his prepared footballs from 2007 through 2014.
The 2016 regular season results were more promising until Brady returned from his suspension for cheating and lying. Hard to believe that Brady is the key to the unusually low team fumble total from 2007 through 2015, his 12 matches in 2016, all of 2017 and 2018 as well as 2019 so far, but there is at least circumstantial evidence pointing that way.
At this point, I am not planning to track Cheatriot playoff fumbles 2008-2015 vs. 2016-2022. I don't have the time to go back to look up Cheatriot playoff fumbles 2008 to 2015. But, there is no evidence so far that deflated balls from 2007-8 to the 2015 playoffs were partly responsible for New England's unprecedented run of success, particularly regular season success, from 2007 to their 2015 Super Bowl triumph.
The New England Cheatriots fumbled 14 times in 16 regular season matches in 2015 followed by 27 total fumbles in 2016, 13 fumbles in 2017 and 11 fumbles in 2018. 65 fumbles in 64 regular season matches over 4 years = in line with their 1/match fumble average over the previous 8 regular seasons from 2007 through 2014.
So far in 2019, only 9 fumbles in 14 matches.
However, the Cheatriots fumbled 12 times or 3/match in their first 4 Brady-less matches of 2016 while he was serving his suspension for lying about instructing the Cheatriot equipment managers to deflate his footballs from 2007-8 to 2014-15. In 74 Brady regular season games from 2015 through 2019, only 62 fumbles. Will there never be any end to the Brady Cheatriot's low-fumble magic?
I predicted that we would see the Brady Cheatriots averaging around the NFL average of 1.5 fumbles/match. But, so far Friend-of-Trump Tom he is maintaining his uncanny knack of leading a low-fumble offense.
Before the 2007 season, the National Football League (NFL) changed the rules to allow quarterbacks to prepare their own footballs for use when their teams had the ball. Over 8 regular seasons from 2007 through 2014, the New England Cheatriots averaged 15.125 fumbles/year or just under 1/game. Over the 8 prior regular seasons from 1999 through 2006, the Patriots averaged 24.75 fumbles/year or just over 1.5/game. 1999-2006 was not an unusual period of high fumbling for the Patriots. Over 14 years from 1993 through 2006, the Patriots averaged 25 fumbles/year.
There is no statistically significant evidence confirming that the Cheatriots were fumbling less from 2007 through 2014 because under-inflated footballs are easier to grip and harder for defensive opponents to knock loose. The Atlanta Falcons experienced a very similar decline in fumbles over 2007-14 vs. 1999-2006. And the Detroit Lions experienced a rise in fumbles/year of almost +6. It is difficult to imagine that even the Lions were deliberately over-inflating their footballs.
Now that there has been so much controversy, the NFL has likely been watching football pressure carefully starting with the 2015 Super Bowl. Just for fun, I have been keeping track of the number of New England Cheatriot fumbles. There is so much year-to-year variation in team fumbles that it is not possible to predict any team's fumbles for a given year. But, I expected Patriot fumbles over the 8 years from 2015 through 2022 to come closer to the NFL average of about 22/year than the 2007-14 Patriot average of 15/year.
I have to admit my deep disappointment that there is not yet any circumstantial evidence from the fumble record for the 2015 through 2019 seasons to indicate that Trump friend and supporter Tom Brady was cheating with his prepared footballs from 2007 through 2014.
The 2016 regular season results were more promising until Brady returned from his suspension for cheating and lying. Hard to believe that Brady is the key to the unusually low team fumble total from 2007 through 2015, his 12 matches in 2016, all of 2017 and 2018 as well as 2019 so far, but there is at least circumstantial evidence pointing that way.
At this point, I am not planning to track Cheatriot playoff fumbles 2008-2015 vs. 2016-2022. I don't have the time to go back to look up Cheatriot playoff fumbles 2008 to 2015. But, there is no evidence so far that deflated balls from 2007-8 to the 2015 playoffs were partly responsible for New England's unprecedented run of success, particularly regular season success, from 2007 to their 2015 Super Bowl triumph.
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
NFL 2015-16 ATS Recap
In official Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald's non-profit, season-long, just-for-fun pool picking winners against the spread (ATS), I was gratified to win my Super Bowl L pick with underdog Denver +4 over Carolina
The all-underdogs approach remains the long-run champion having defeated all-overdogs 19 of the past 24 regular seasons since 1992 averaging almost 52% over that span.
Accordingly, all-underdogs is my default pick with the occasional "value" overdog sprinkled in. I did go with all-overdogs in the 1/4 final 8 playoff round because home teams have won almost 75% of matches straight-up in this round thanks to their superior talent levels and the extra week of rest. Over 1,000 matches in these circumstances, I doubt that there would be enough point reversals to bring underdogs up to 50% ATS.
I was 131-118-7 ATS for the regular season -- 40-39-1 home underdogs, 83-69-5 road underdogs and 8-10-1 home overdogs -- good for a tie for 26th out of 99 in Arch's pool and a tie for 10th out of 68 in another pool where I swim with sharks. The non-Arch pool uses generous point spreads and that explains the difference in my results.
Earlier this year I was proving what my long gone London toy boy used to say about me: "When Lady G is good, she's very good. But, when she's bad, she's very very very bad." Indeed I was very bad earlier this year and again in week 13 at 5-11 offset by racking up 12-2 in week 10 and 11-5 in week 17. All in all, I am satisfied with my performance over the full year.
But, I was 5-6 ATS in the playoffs -- 2-3 with home overdogs, 2-2 with home underdogs, 0-1 road underdogs and 1-0 in the Bowl. (Archibald's mate Jarhead points out that home underdogs are riding a 20-12 ATS streak in the playoffs.)
This is the 6th consecutive playoff year that I have finished below 50% ATS. But, I was confident going with the Super Bowl underdog. According to Professor Steven Leavitt of Freakonomics fame, the Super Bowl underdog is the best ATS pick of the year. So far, Super underdogs are 25-23-2 ATS. Over 1000 Super Bowls we might expect to see underdogs closer to 55% than 50%.
The NFC is up XXVI to XXIV over the AFC after L Super Bowls.
I can't tell you how much it pleasured me to pick successfully against NEW ENGLAND in the conference championship round and be firmly against Coach Bill Belicheat and Donald Trump supporter Tom Brady.
Trump's views about football are as dangerous and wrong-headed as his politics.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/donald-trump---football-has-become-soft--like-our-country-000938592.html
The all-underdogs approach remains the long-run champion having defeated all-overdogs 19 of the past 24 regular seasons since 1992 averaging almost 52% over that span.
Accordingly, all-underdogs is my default pick with the occasional "value" overdog sprinkled in. I did go with all-overdogs in the 1/4 final 8 playoff round because home teams have won almost 75% of matches straight-up in this round thanks to their superior talent levels and the extra week of rest. Over 1,000 matches in these circumstances, I doubt that there would be enough point reversals to bring underdogs up to 50% ATS.
I was 131-118-7 ATS for the regular season -- 40-39-1 home underdogs, 83-69-5 road underdogs and 8-10-1 home overdogs -- good for a tie for 26th out of 99 in Arch's pool and a tie for 10th out of 68 in another pool where I swim with sharks. The non-Arch pool uses generous point spreads and that explains the difference in my results.
Earlier this year I was proving what my long gone London toy boy used to say about me: "When Lady G is good, she's very good. But, when she's bad, she's very very very bad." Indeed I was very bad earlier this year and again in week 13 at 5-11 offset by racking up 12-2 in week 10 and 11-5 in week 17. All in all, I am satisfied with my performance over the full year.
But, I was 5-6 ATS in the playoffs -- 2-3 with home overdogs, 2-2 with home underdogs, 0-1 road underdogs and 1-0 in the Bowl. (Archibald's mate Jarhead points out that home underdogs are riding a 20-12 ATS streak in the playoffs.)
This is the 6th consecutive playoff year that I have finished below 50% ATS. But, I was confident going with the Super Bowl underdog. According to Professor Steven Leavitt of Freakonomics fame, the Super Bowl underdog is the best ATS pick of the year. So far, Super underdogs are 25-23-2 ATS. Over 1000 Super Bowls we might expect to see underdogs closer to 55% than 50%.
The NFC is up XXVI to XXIV over the AFC after L Super Bowls.
I can't tell you how much it pleasured me to pick successfully against NEW ENGLAND in the conference championship round and be firmly against Coach Bill Belicheat and Donald Trump supporter Tom Brady.
Trump's views about football are as dangerous and wrong-headed as his politics.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/donald-trump---football-has-become-soft--like-our-country-000938592.html
Monday, June 22, 2015
CFL 2015 ATS Recap
To humour my Canadian toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald, I participate in his non-profit Canadian Football League (CFL) pool against the spread (ATS). I finished 42-43-1 ATS: 12-19 home overdogs, 8-4 home underdogs, 16-15 road underdogs and 6-5-1 road overdogs.
In the Grey Cup, I was correct picking OTTAWA +6.5 over rEDMONTON. I am 6-1 ATS over the past 7 Grey Cups.
Edmonton is now 14-11 in Grey Cups -- 2nd only to Toronto at 23-13 (including precursors to present franchises, defunct teams from the distant past and university teams no longer eligible).
I am 53.15% over 7 years picking CFL winners ATS from 2009 through 2015. Not enough matches to be statistically significantly better than 50% dart-throwing, but I am still proud of being above 50% over 7 years. However, before I start calling myself the CFL ATS Nostradamus, I have to admit that I have now finished below 50% in 2 of the last 3 years and overall I am behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.5% over the past 7 years. All-underdogs finished 48-37-1 ATS in 2015.
Arch points out that western teams were 70-39 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2014 and 58-51 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. This year in 2015, the west was 19-22 straight-up and 16-24-1 ATS. Perhaps the CFL worm has turned away from the past pattern of western dominance. However, the west has won the last 3 Grey Cups and 8 of the past 11. Over four years from 2012 to 2015 the west was 89-61 straight-up, but 74-75-1 ATS. Next year I will not be tilting toward western teams ATS.
Arch maintained his annual prediction that the 4th place western team would have a better record than the 3rd place eastern team and go on to represent the east in the Grey Cup. As is often the case except for his taste in women, Arch was wrong. At the halfway mark, Arch also predicted that Ottawa would finish last and Hammertown 1st in the east with rEdmonton 1st in the west. Wrong again, Arch, about Ottawa last who finished 1st instead. Hammertown struggled with their QB injured or Arch might have been as right about 1st in the east as he was about the west. At any rate, as a sports prognosticator, Arch is a good toy boy.
If anyone out there has a history of Grey Cup point spreads, it would be interesting to see whether the underdogs are significantly ahead ATS which would be consistent with Professor Leavitt's intuition that the best bet in sports is the underdog in the National Football League (NFL) Super Bowl in the United States.
In the Grey Cup, I was correct picking OTTAWA +6.5 over rEDMONTON. I am 6-1 ATS over the past 7 Grey Cups.
Edmonton is now 14-11 in Grey Cups -- 2nd only to Toronto at 23-13 (including precursors to present franchises, defunct teams from the distant past and university teams no longer eligible).
I am 53.15% over 7 years picking CFL winners ATS from 2009 through 2015. Not enough matches to be statistically significantly better than 50% dart-throwing, but I am still proud of being above 50% over 7 years. However, before I start calling myself the CFL ATS Nostradamus, I have to admit that I have now finished below 50% in 2 of the last 3 years and overall I am behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.5% over the past 7 years. All-underdogs finished 48-37-1 ATS in 2015.
Arch points out that western teams were 70-39 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2014 and 58-51 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. This year in 2015, the west was 19-22 straight-up and 16-24-1 ATS. Perhaps the CFL worm has turned away from the past pattern of western dominance. However, the west has won the last 3 Grey Cups and 8 of the past 11. Over four years from 2012 to 2015 the west was 89-61 straight-up, but 74-75-1 ATS. Next year I will not be tilting toward western teams ATS.
Arch maintained his annual prediction that the 4th place western team would have a better record than the 3rd place eastern team and go on to represent the east in the Grey Cup. As is often the case except for his taste in women, Arch was wrong. At the halfway mark, Arch also predicted that Ottawa would finish last and Hammertown 1st in the east with rEdmonton 1st in the west. Wrong again, Arch, about Ottawa last who finished 1st instead. Hammertown struggled with their QB injured or Arch might have been as right about 1st in the east as he was about the west. At any rate, as a sports prognosticator, Arch is a good toy boy.
If anyone out there has a history of Grey Cup point spreads, it would be interesting to see whether the underdogs are significantly ahead ATS which would be consistent with Professor Leavitt's intuition that the best bet in sports is the underdog in the National Football League (NFL) Super Bowl in the United States.
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