CFL 2021 Recap: Picks ATS

I play every year in my Canadian toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald's non-profit Canadian Football League (CFL) pool against the spread (ATS). 

In the 2021 Grey Cup, I correctly selected winterpeg -3.5 over HAMmerville. I am now 10-2 ATS picking the past 12 Grey Cups. 

Including both play-off and regular season matches, I was 35-33 in 2021 with my ATS picks = 8-8 home underdogs, 15-10 road underdogs, 5-10 home overdogs and 7-5 road overdogs. 

I am 52% over 12 years picking CFL winners ATS from 2009 on. I have had only 3 losing CFL years out of 12. However, I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53% from 2009. 2014 was the only year during this period when CFL underdogs had a losing year ATS.

For 2021,  all-underdogs were 38-30 ATS and an all-roadies strategy was 40-28.

I did not fancy picking against the home underdog Ticats in the Grey Cup. However, Arch points out that western teams are 214-125-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2021 and 179-158-4 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. In 2021 including the Grey Cup result, west over east was 14-11 straight-up and 13-12 ATS. The west has won 6 of the last 8 Grey Cups and 11 of the past 16. 

MLB Inter-league: 2021 Recap

I incorrectly predicted that the Houston Cheatros would defeat Atlanta in the World Series (WS) based on  American League (AL) superiority. For example, the AL has won 8 all-star matches in a row, 20 of the last 23 to reach a decision and 26 of the last 32.  

With the All-Star game and WS matches included, AL teams bested National League (NL) teams 171-137 (55.375%) in the 2021 instalment of the Major League Baseball (MLB) inter-league rivalry. 

After including the LA Dodgers' 4-2 2020 World Series triumph over the TB Rays, the NL won the annual inter-league contest 3 consecutive years from 2018 through 2020 after 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017. 

Based on 2018-2020, I had thought that the "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements had disappeared. Many brains who started in AL organizations have since been lured to managing NL teams. But, AL dominance in 2021 is consistent with 2004-2017.

Interesting to note that 2021 AL superiority was based almost entirely on the mighty mighty AL East's 64-36 record against the sad-sack NL LEast. Even after including the WS, Atlanta had a 10-16 inter-league record. AL Central teams finished 56-44 against their NL Central rivals with only the AL West lagging at 47% against the NL West.

 

NCAA March Madness 2021: Lady G vs. Baracketer-in-Chief

Former President Obama picks winners straight-up for each bracket and round.

https://www.obama.org/2021-ncaa/

When Obama picks upsets, I can identify games where yours truly Lady Godiva and the Baracketer-in-Chief disagree even allowing the point spread to the Baracketer. I follow a system in ex-toy-boy Reginald's NCAA against-the-spread (ATS) pool. I take all small favourite overdogs giving 12 points or less. In 12 years from 2009 through 2021, I am 41-45-1 ATS womano-a-mano against the Baracketer. In rounds 1 and 2 this year, I was 2-3 against the Baracketer. 

Speaking of mano-a-womano, kudos to the former President for also picking the women's NCAA brackets. 

Obama got UNC right as the 2009 and 2017 winner. After a tough time in 2010 and 2011 with none of his final 4 picks coming through, he correctly picked 5 of the elite 8 in 2013 and 2014 as well as 6 of 8 in 2012 and 2015. Not too shabby. In 2017, he picked 10 of the sweet 16. In 2018, the Baracketer-in-Chief was way off along almost everyone else. In 2019, he got 12 right of the sweet 16 and 4 of the elite 8. In 2021 the Baracketer picked 5 of the elite 8 and 2 of the final 4, but his pick of Gonzaga to win fell short.

I wish a NCAA men's team would go undefeated all the way through to winning the championship and stop the references to the last team to do so, Indiana in 1976, while their thoroughly unpleasant coach Bob Knight is still alive to see it.  

NFL Picks 2020 Re-cap: ATS 53.7%

In toy boy fiance Archibald's fun pool for the National Football League (NFL) regular season, I finished 53.7% against the spread (ATS) at 133-114-9: 54-45-5 home dogs, 1-3 home faves, 4-1 road faves and 74-65-4 road dogs.

I follow a strategy based on the persuasive case that NFL bettors would do better if they realized that underdogs consistently best overdogs from Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html

Two consecutive years now, I have finished the 2020 and 2021 regular seasons at 53.7% and 2nd in Arch's pool (3-way tie for 2nd out of 60 players in 2021).

In 2021, a simple all-underdog strategy recorded a 23rd winning regular season ATS over the past 29 since 1992.

Just for fun, my ex-toy boy Reginald and I engage in a playoff smack-off based on alternating draft-style picks each week. In Super Bowl LV, I picked home underdog TBAY +3 over kc. Professor Leavitt argued that the Super Bowl underdog is the best bet in sports. In another 945 years, we will know whether he was right from a statistically significant point of view.   

I finished 7-6 with my play-off picks: 5-3 road underdogs, 1-2 home underdogs and 1-1 home overdogs.

My working proposition is that most playoff matches are no different than regular season matches so that out of every 6,000 playoff matches, about 2,000 underdogs would win outright and about 1,000 underdogs would win on points. 

The exception might be the 1/4 final matches when No. 1 seeds have an additional advantage with an extra week of rest, which may not be fully factored into the point spread. Teams with the bye week have won about 3/4 of all matches in the divisional round. If that high winning % holds up in future, my hunch is that we would not see 1/3 of those winning top-seeded favourites lose on points. But, it's just a hunch and we will not know how this story turns out in a statistically significant sense for another 900 years or so.