NBA Finals Game 7

I finished the 2010 playoffs 51-31 or 62.2% to the good against the point spread with a simple all-overdog strategy.

For the past 3 years, I have followed what I call my Gibbs-Gipp system:
http://economics.stanford.edu/files/Theses/Theses_2007/Gibbs2007.pdf
and have called 55.7% of all playoff games correctly against the point spread.

And, over three years of picking NCAA March madness matches, I won 53.9% against the spread.

The statistically significant part of the Gibbs-Gipp system – backing all "heavy" underdogs receiving 12.5 or more points – came through with 61.8% winners over the 2009/10 NBA regular season after delivering a 54.7% success rate against the points in 2008/9.

My complete NBA record for the 2009/10 regular season + playoffs was 62% -- not too shabby if I do say so myself.

Official Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald is still in mourning after the 1^st ever Game 7 finals loss by his beloved Celtics – and to the hated LAkers to boot. When I mentioned that he seemed inconsolable, he begged to differ and got down on his knees to beg yours truly for the sweet consolation that only Lady G can provide.

World Cup Soccer Football

Archibald insists that I pass along his prediction that the Netherlands will win the World Cup. He's even more confident after their 1^st 2 victories. (Get your own sports blog, Arch, and stop mooching off mine.)

As for me, you can take Lady Godiva out of Coventry, but you can't take my heart away from backing England. Too bad we can never find a good keeper or reliable scorer. (Until I met dear Archibald, I felt the same way about men.)

(Amended 21 June 2010)

NCAA March Madness 2010 Recap

After losing on points with Duke -7 in the final, I finished even-steven at 31-31-2 against the point spread in this year's March madness.

My modified Gibbs system regressed to the mean over 3 years. In 2008, I finished 37-27 or 58% against the spread. In 2009, I declined to 34-29-1 or 54%. Over 3 full years from 2008 through 2010, I am 102-87-3 or 53.9%. Good, but not great and we won't have enough data to know whether my modified Gibbs system is a statistically significant winner for another 10 years or so of NCAA tournaments. I wonder if I will still be as great-looking 10 years from now.

Before I get carried away with my good looks and basketball-picking prowess, I should admit that just by picking favourites in every NCAA tournament game for the past 3 years, you would have finished ahead of me every year and would be sporting a 108-81-3 or 57.03% record.

Lady G vs. President Obama

President Obama picks winners straight-up with no point line for each bracket and round.

http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/en/entry?entryID=3288143

He had a tough time this year with none of his final 4 picks coming through. But, when he picked upsets in the early rounds, I could identify games where Lady Godiva and the Baracketer-in-Chief disagreed. Since Obama took office, I am 7-9 womano-a-mano against the Baracketer. I won 5-3 last year, but the President can at least boast that he defeated me 6-2 this year.

And, speaking of mano-a-womano, kudos to the President for picking the women's NCAA brackets this year.

http://games.espn.go.com/tcwomen/en/entry?entryID=125259

Lady G's System

I myself take no interest whatsoever in American college basketball, but toy boy fiancé Archibald can't get enough roundball. Every year he organizes a friendly, non-profit office pool for the NCAA men's tourney. Instead of picking bracket winners, the object of his pool is to pick winners against the point spread each and every day as the tournament unfolds. The winner of his winner-take-all pool is the contestant who picks the most winners against the spread over 64 matches. All matches are weighted equally starting with the play-in game to determine the 64^th team.

To humour Archibald, I participate by relying on economists' studies showing that "heavy" underdogs win more than their fair share of college basketball games against the point spread, while "non-heavy" overdogs win slightly more than 50% (although this particular result is not statistically significant).

http://www.entrepreneur.com/tradejournals/article/print/179073423.html

Super Bowl 2010

Kudos to President Obama for correctly calling the Saints. He's undefeated as President with his Super Sunday picks straight-up.

And, I have now lost 3 Super Bowls on the trot against the points.

At least, I ended up on the + side at 6-5 for the playoffs. Nothing great, but my first winning playoff season since 2002.

Underdogs vs. overdogs now even-up at 21-21-2 in 44 Super Bowls.

I will be less active with this blog until March madness aside from the occasional NBA pick. But, tune in for the NCAA tournament when I hope to repeat my feat of outpicking the Baracketer-in-Chief.

NFL Semi-final Picks

If your friendly, non-profit pool extends through the playoffs, stick with the home overdogs in the conference championship games even though there is no strong tendency to go on in the historical data.

Favourites have won 65% of 78 conference championships since 1970 – actually a touch below the 2/3 outright winning rate for overdogs in the regular season. I recommend taking the favourites and ignoring the points. My unproved hypothesis is that fewer playoff games turn on points because winning teams go all out to pile up the score in elimination games.

Speaking of piling up the score, Minnesota went beyond the bounds of good taste throwing for a TD on 4^th down leading 27-3 late in the game.

Pick	+/-	Against
NEW ORLEANS	-4	Minnesota
INDIANAPOLIS	-7.5	NY Jets

Indy covering the points is my choice for best bet this week. Sorry, former Godiva toy boy Reginald and still diehard Jet fan. Not this year for your beloved Jets. Too bad you loved the Jets and football more than you loved me.

Playoff Picks So Far:

3-1 with the home overdogs last week was easy-peasy. Favourites playing with the extra week of rest have won nearly ¾ of 80 divisional round games since 1990. The godds of probability definitely tilt to home overdogs in the divisional round.

Picks	Right	Wrong
All	5	3
Best Bets	3	1