Updated 7 February 2012
For those of you playing in season-long pools picking winners against point spreads, I recommended mostly underdogs again this year. I finished 128-128-11 for the entire season, 124-121-11 for the regular season followed by 4-7 in the playoffs.
I was less than rapt to go an abysmal 7-14-1 with my efforts to identify "value overdogs" leaving me trailing a plain-vanilla all-underdog strategy leading the way at 135-121-11 or 52.6% -- a touch above the long-term average for all-underdogs over the past 20 years. Underdogs have finished over 50% in 7 of the past 10 years and 16 of the past 20.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
CFL 2011 Recap
The National Football League (NFL) is my principal interest (aside from toy boy and fiance Archibald), but just for fun I pick Canadian Football League (CFL) games against the spread (ATS).
After correctly picking BC -7 over Winnipeg in the Grey Cup, I was chuffed to finish 44-32-1 or 57.8% ATS for 2011.
I was 45-32 or 58.4% winners ATS in 2010 and am 55% to the good over 2009 to 2011 combined.
Official Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald was totally wrong with his mid-year prediction that Montreal would triumph over Calgary in the Grey Cup. Spend more time in my boudoir and less time in betting parlours, Archibald, you handsome devil.
After correctly picking BC -7 over Winnipeg in the Grey Cup, I was chuffed to finish 44-32-1 or 57.8% ATS for 2011.
I was 45-32 or 58.4% winners ATS in 2010 and am 55% to the good over 2009 to 2011 combined.
Official Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald was totally wrong with his mid-year prediction that Montreal would triumph over Calgary in the Grey Cup. Spend more time in my boudoir and less time in betting parlours, Archibald, you handsome devil.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Major League Baseball 2011 Recap
Modified 1 November
American League (AL) teams won 134 of 260 interleague games in 2011 or 51.5%.
2011 is the 8th year running starting with 2004 that AL teams have won more interleague games than their National League (NL) rivals.
But, the NL has now taken 3 of the last 4 World Series contests and 6 of the last 11 as well as the All-Star game for 2 consecutive years. The NL's overall winning % of 48.5% in all 2011 inter-league games is the NL's best performance since 48.8% in 2004. Is the worm turning slowly away from this long period of AL dominance?
American League (AL) teams won 134 of 260 interleague games in 2011 or 51.5%.
2011 is the 8th year running starting with 2004 that AL teams have won more interleague games than their National League (NL) rivals.
But, the NL has now taken 3 of the last 4 World Series contests and 6 of the last 11 as well as the All-Star game for 2 consecutive years. The NL's overall winning % of 48.5% in all 2011 inter-league games is the NL's best performance since 48.8% in 2004. Is the worm turning slowly away from this long period of AL dominance?
Monday, May 16, 2011
NBA 2011 Play-offs Recap
Modified 14 June 2011
Against the spread (ATS) I ended up 36-40-5 or 47.5% ATS in the 2011 playoffs.
Overdog favourites won 53 of 81 games straight-up -- a touch below my expectation that overdogs win about 2 out of every 3 contests over a large sample of 1,000 games. But, 18 of 81 games turned on points -- a touch above the long-run average trend of about 1 in 5 games decided by the point spread. As a result, my all-overdog approach (except for the final game) did not pay off this year for participants in friendly, non-profit NBA playoff pools based on picking winners ATS.
I should say that over the past 4 NBA playoff years starting with 2008 I am 53.7% ATS.
Against the spread (ATS) I ended up 36-40-5 or 47.5% ATS in the 2011 playoffs.
Overdog favourites won 53 of 81 games straight-up -- a touch below my expectation that overdogs win about 2 out of every 3 contests over a large sample of 1,000 games. But, 18 of 81 games turned on points -- a touch above the long-run average trend of about 1 in 5 games decided by the point spread. As a result, my all-overdog approach (except for the final game) did not pay off this year for participants in friendly, non-profit NBA playoff pools based on picking winners ATS.
I should say that over the past 4 NBA playoff years starting with 2008 I am 53.7% ATS.
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