Official Godiva toy boy and fiancé Archibald can't get enough roundball. Every year he organizes a friendly, non-profit office pool for the NCAA men's tourney.
Instead of picking bracket winners, players in his pool pick winners against the spread (ATS) each and every day as the tournament unfolds. The winner of his winner-take-all pool is the contestant who picks the most winners against the spread over 67 matches including the play-in games. All matches are weighted equally.
Including 0-4 in play-in games, I finished 33-34 ATS.
I rely on economists' studies showing that "heavy" underdogs win more than their fair share of college basketball games against the point spread, while "non-heavy" overdogs win slightly more than 50% (although this particular result is not statistically significant).
In the final match, I took overdog favourite ATS Wisconsin over Duke at -1. One of these years, perhaps in my next life when I have time, I would like to look at the NCAA finals ATS over the years to see if there is preliminary evidence confirming Professor Stephen (Freakanomics) Levitt's Super Bowl thesis that underdogs are undervalued in big finals.
Over 8 years since 2008 of swimming naked (of roundball knowledge) in Archibald's pool, I am under water at 249-251-11. Clearly, no evidence that I have a good system for picking March madness winners ATS.
Just by picking all overdog favourites in every NCAA tournament game for the past 8 years, you would be sporting a 254-246-11 record ATS which is not statistically significantly different from even-stephen.
Lady G vs. Baracketer-in-Chief
President Obama picks winners straight-up with no point line for each bracket and round.
The President got UNC right as the 2009 winner. After a tough time in 2010 and 2011 with none of his final 4 picks coming through, he correctly picked 5 of the elite 8 in 2013 and 2014 as well as 6 of 8 in 2012 and 2015. Not too shabby.
When he picks upsets in the early rounds, I can identify games where Lady Godiva and the Baracketer-in-Chief disagree. In Obama's first 7 years in office, I am now 20-27-1 womano-a-mano against the Baracketer who has had the knack for identifying upsets until this year when Lady G had a 4-1 upper hand on the Baracketer.
Speaking of mano-a-womano, kudos to the President for also picking the women's NCAA brackets.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Sunday, November 9, 2014
NBA 2014-15 Recap ATS
Ex-Godiva toy boy Reginald organizes non-profit National Basketball Association (NBA) pools picking winners against the point spread (ATS) in his abundant spare time. My only advice to current Godiva toy boy and official Godiva fiance Archibald, who gets on so well with Reginald that he plays in all Reginald's pools, is to follow academic studies showing that "heavy" underdogs with more than 12 points have a statistically significant winning record over a long run of years. (While this is true of regular season matches, I am less certain that the same result can be found in playoff matches.)
Heavy underdogs finished 54-47-4 or 53% ATS over the 2014-15 regular season -- right in line with the long-term average.
I am 1st in Reginald's heart and memory, but last in his playoff poll at 33-48 or just over 40% ATS picking all overdog favourites so far. (It's interesting to note that there were no heavy underdogs receiving more than 12 points throughout the 2015 playoffs.) I lost 21 overdog picks on points in the playoffs.
Over the last 8 years, I am 51.6% picking playoff games ATS, which is actually a touch below the 51.8% record of a plain-vanilla all-favourites approach.
Interesting to note that the western representative has now won 12 of the last 17 NBA Finals. Over the last 32 years going back to 1984, only 9 teams have won NBA championships.
For Archibald the highlight of 2015 so far was seeing his beloved RAPTORS defeat his almost as beloved T-wolves. Archibald predicted that Minnesota with 2 No. 1 picks in Wiggins and Bennett will win a NBA championship before Cleveland with Lebron, K Love and Kyrie. Dearest Arch believes that as a general manager, Lebron is a great player. Note that Arch made his prediction before K Love and Kyrie went down for the year. However, even Archibald questions the wisdom of Minnie`s Young for Garnett trade and believes Minnie took a step back with that move. And, with Canada's own Tristan Thompson a better fit with King James than KLove, Cleveland has a better team for the NBA Finals at least defensively thanks to the good luck of KLove's injury. If Lebron is as smart as he thinks he is, he will focus his efforts on resigning Thompson and kiss KLove good-bye regardless of whether he wins the championship this year and proves Archibald wrong.
Dearest deluded Archibald also thinks his Raptors will be better next year after being swept in the 1st round by Washington. He can't see that after starting the year 24-7, the Raptors finished 25-30. The Raptor team that finished the 2015 playoffs will struggle to make the playoffs next year without personnel changes and a Lowry recovery from his back issues.
Heavy underdogs finished 54-47-4 or 53% ATS over the 2014-15 regular season -- right in line with the long-term average.
I am 1st in Reginald's heart and memory, but last in his playoff poll at 33-48 or just over 40% ATS picking all overdog favourites so far. (It's interesting to note that there were no heavy underdogs receiving more than 12 points throughout the 2015 playoffs.) I lost 21 overdog picks on points in the playoffs.
Over the last 8 years, I am 51.6% picking playoff games ATS, which is actually a touch below the 51.8% record of a plain-vanilla all-favourites approach.
Interesting to note that the western representative has now won 12 of the last 17 NBA Finals. Over the last 32 years going back to 1984, only 9 teams have won NBA championships.
For Archibald the highlight of 2015 so far was seeing his beloved RAPTORS defeat his almost as beloved T-wolves. Archibald predicted that Minnesota with 2 No. 1 picks in Wiggins and Bennett will win a NBA championship before Cleveland with Lebron, K Love and Kyrie. Dearest Arch believes that as a general manager, Lebron is a great player. Note that Arch made his prediction before K Love and Kyrie went down for the year. However, even Archibald questions the wisdom of Minnie`s Young for Garnett trade and believes Minnie took a step back with that move. And, with Canada's own Tristan Thompson a better fit with King James than KLove, Cleveland has a better team for the NBA Finals at least defensively thanks to the good luck of KLove's injury. If Lebron is as smart as he thinks he is, he will focus his efforts on resigning Thompson and kiss KLove good-bye regardless of whether he wins the championship this year and proves Archibald wrong.
Dearest deluded Archibald also thinks his Raptors will be better next year after being swept in the 1st round by Washington. He can't see that after starting the year 24-7, the Raptors finished 25-30. The Raptor team that finished the 2015 playoffs will struggle to make the playoffs next year without personnel changes and a Lowry recovery from his back issues.
Sportsenfreude in Toronto
Now that the baseball season is over, I must bring to your attention the most ridiculous comment in the history of sports talk radio. After Oakland lost the wild card match to KC, Toronto FAN 590 morning blowhards Brady and Walker were chortling that Oakland is riding a 1-15 streak in playoff matches in which the Athletics had a chance to advance to the next round. One of Brady or Walker (who can tell them apart?) had the audacity to say that he would rather be a Toronto Blue Jay fan and miss the playoffs for two decades than be an Oakland fan. Really? This would be like my English relatives saying that they are much happier as England football fans than Dutch fans who have had to suffer through all those World Cup and European Cup close calls over the years. More on this subject if and when I have time.
Friday, September 12, 2014
Scotland Independence Referendum
With all the news about Scotland's vote on independence, I have been recalling my undergrad years in the 1990s at University of St Andrews.
I loved being the only Coventry lass on campus surrounded by all those handsome red-headed barries (= scots slang for sweet, sexy lads).
My boyfriends at St Andrews reflect the divisions in Scots society now playing out in the referendum campaign.
Seamus was my main fancy man -- the scion of an aulde establishment family. I was going through a "First I look at the purse" phase, so I was happy enough to be squired about town by Seamus and has large wallet. He kept me in ribbons and pearls for almost four years.
But, as a man, he was rather boring. Not so, Sean the dashing tutorial assistant in my 1st year biology course who wore his kilt to every class. Sean never quite finished his Ph.D. and never rose above TA. His wee joke was that he was too busy with his T and A duties to get around to his thesis.
In 1st year, I fell into the unfortunate habit of dropping by Sean's library carrel 3 times a week for special tutoring. He would close the blinds on his carrel window and doors and then insist that biology could only be learned without clothing. I certainly learned a lot about biology. So much so, that I signed up every year for whatever course Sean was TAing. As a side benefit, I received A+ in all my assignments. Sean teased me by telling me that my A+s were for my diligence as a great kisser.
For almost four years, Seamus remained in the dark about my doings in the dark with Sean until that unhappy day that my former BFF Deirdre took it upon herself to bring Seamus up to date with my two-timing.
Where are they now? Seamus and Deirdre are unhappily married. Seamus is chair of his local Conservative Party constituency association. I hear that he can hold his party meetings in a small pub booth with room to spare. He and his Conservative mates are busy campaigning for the no side to keep Scotland in the United Kingdom.
Sean has never left the uni scene. Without a Ph.D., he's still a TA -- no longer at St Andrews but now at the University of the West of Scotland (Dumfries campus). I've kept in touch with Deirdre and she tells me that Sean still has a reputation for awarding A+s to pet students who come in for special hands-on help. Naturally, he's a Scots Nationalist activist.
If I could vote as an honorary Scot, I would vote with boring Seamus against Sean who is loads of fun, but having never grown up has remained poor. I fear that Sean's fate would be writ large as Scotland's future if the Scots vote for independence next week.
When it comes to Scotland's future, "First I look at the purse" still seems like a good approach. I do hope that Scotland votes no on the 18th, so that in future Coventry lasses like myself can still enjoy your wonderful St Andrews lads without having to cross a border that has not existed for 400 years since James I came down from Scotland to be crowned king of England.
Note that Nobel prize-winner Paul Krugman warns that an independent Scotland will likely have to start their own currency -- a difficult job indeed. Be careful what you wish for, Scotland, you just might get it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html
Note: Names and descriptions of individuals mentioned in this blog note have been altered to protect the guilty.
I loved being the only Coventry lass on campus surrounded by all those handsome red-headed barries (= scots slang for sweet, sexy lads).
My boyfriends at St Andrews reflect the divisions in Scots society now playing out in the referendum campaign.
Seamus was my main fancy man -- the scion of an aulde establishment family. I was going through a "First I look at the purse" phase, so I was happy enough to be squired about town by Seamus and has large wallet. He kept me in ribbons and pearls for almost four years.
But, as a man, he was rather boring. Not so, Sean the dashing tutorial assistant in my 1st year biology course who wore his kilt to every class. Sean never quite finished his Ph.D. and never rose above TA. His wee joke was that he was too busy with his T and A duties to get around to his thesis.
In 1st year, I fell into the unfortunate habit of dropping by Sean's library carrel 3 times a week for special tutoring. He would close the blinds on his carrel window and doors and then insist that biology could only be learned without clothing. I certainly learned a lot about biology. So much so, that I signed up every year for whatever course Sean was TAing. As a side benefit, I received A+ in all my assignments. Sean teased me by telling me that my A+s were for my diligence as a great kisser.
For almost four years, Seamus remained in the dark about my doings in the dark with Sean until that unhappy day that my former BFF Deirdre took it upon herself to bring Seamus up to date with my two-timing.
Where are they now? Seamus and Deirdre are unhappily married. Seamus is chair of his local Conservative Party constituency association. I hear that he can hold his party meetings in a small pub booth with room to spare. He and his Conservative mates are busy campaigning for the no side to keep Scotland in the United Kingdom.
Sean has never left the uni scene. Without a Ph.D., he's still a TA -- no longer at St Andrews but now at the University of the West of Scotland (Dumfries campus). I've kept in touch with Deirdre and she tells me that Sean still has a reputation for awarding A+s to pet students who come in for special hands-on help. Naturally, he's a Scots Nationalist activist.
If I could vote as an honorary Scot, I would vote with boring Seamus against Sean who is loads of fun, but having never grown up has remained poor. I fear that Sean's fate would be writ large as Scotland's future if the Scots vote for independence next week.
When it comes to Scotland's future, "First I look at the purse" still seems like a good approach. I do hope that Scotland votes no on the 18th, so that in future Coventry lasses like myself can still enjoy your wonderful St Andrews lads without having to cross a border that has not existed for 400 years since James I came down from Scotland to be crowned king of England.
Note that Nobel prize-winner Paul Krugman warns that an independent Scotland will likely have to start their own currency -- a difficult job indeed. Be careful what you wish for, Scotland, you just might get it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html
Note: Names and descriptions of individuals mentioned in this blog note have been altered to protect the guilty.
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