CFL Picks 2023 ATS Recap

I mistakenly picked overdog WINterPEG -8.5 over montreal against the spread (ATS) in the Grey Cup. A fitting end to a Canadian Football League (CFL) 2023 season including playoffs over which I finished 35-50-1 against the spread (ATS) = 16-24 road underdogs, 4-5-1 road overdogs, 5-6 home overdogs and 10-15 home underdogs -- my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. A simple all-overdogs strategy was 48-37-1 this year. 

Godiva toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald points out that western teams are 247-156-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2023 and 206-194-5 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. But, in 2023, the east was ahead 18-13-1 ATS and 19-13 straight-up in inter-conference matches. 

Are the years of western dominance over? Or was eastern superiority in 2023 a random aberration without any significant meaning?

The west has still won 6 of the last 10 Grey Cups and 11 of the past 17. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 10-4 ATS picking the past 14 Grey Cups. 

I am 51% over 13 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners against the spread (ATS) from 2009 on. (Recall that the  CFL cancelled their 2020 season, so there have been only 14 seasons from 2009 through 2023.) I have had 5 losing CFL years out of 14. I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2023. 2023 is the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. 

Luckily, Arch was too busy with volunteer tasks to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks were just for fun with not much fun had in a losing year for yours truly. 

MLB Inter-League: 2023 Recap

National League (NL) teams bested American League (AL) teams 364 wins to 332 (52.3% to 47.7%) in the 2023 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB) inter-league rivalry including the MLB's 93rd All-Star match + the World Series (WS).

I picked Texas in the WS.I was planning to pick the NL team, but couldn't bring myself to back sixth-seeded Arizona.  

The AL has won 16 of the last 20 inter-league seasons with All-Star and World Series matches included in the counts. The NL won the inter-league contest for 3 consecutive years from 2018 through 2020 after 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017. The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements has shrunk and perhaps disappeared completely thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started in AL organizations and then crossed over to manage NL teams. 

Prior to 2023, the AL had won 9 all-star contests in a row, 21 of 24 to reach a decision and 27 of 33. 

AL East teams defeated NL opponents 126-104 (54.8%) in 2023 after 58% success in 2020 through 2022. 

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. 

NFL Picks ATS: 2022-3 Recap

I successfully picked underdog kc +1 over philly in Super Bowl LVII.  

I finished 7-6 against the spread (ATS) with my 2023 playoff picks: 4-4 road underdogs, 1-1 home underdogs, 1-1 home overdogs and 1-0 in the Super Bowl.

The divisional round is the only time I ever pick overdog favourites based on TMQ Gregg Easterbrook's insight that the top seeds coming off a bye win 3/4 of their divisional round games straight-up. My guess is that the point spreads may not completely capture top seed dominance.  

For the 2022-3 National Football League (NFL) regular season, underdogs finished 140-121-9 or 53.5%  ATS.  

55-44-4 home underdogs -- historically the best bet in sports, but not good enough over the long run to make a profit large enough to overcome the commission charged by gambling houses. 

85-77-5 road underdogs. 

Toy boy Archibald has retired his NFL ATS pool due to volunteer work taking up all his time even to the point of neglecting me. 

With Arch barely in my life, (and even more barely barely, if you know what I mean, nudge nudge wink wink) I joined another pool and picked all underdogs all year long. A simple all-underdogs strategy has now recorded 25 winning regular seasons over the past 31, a track record  significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's catch-phrases). I finished 3rd out of 65 players in the pool.

This strategy is based on the persuasive case from Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame that NFL bettors would do better if they realized that underdogs consistently best overdogs ATS and that the Super Bowl underdog is the best bet of the year. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html

MLB Inter-league 2022: AL Rules

I correctly predicted that the Houston Cheatros would defeat the Philly Phillies in the 2022 World Series (WS).

American League (AL) teams defeated National League (NL) teams 157 -150 (51.1% to 48.9%) in the 2022 instalment of the Major League Baseball (MLB) inter-league rivalry including All-Star and WS matches. The AL has won 9 all-star contests in a row, 21 of the last 24 to reach a decision and 27 of the last 33.  

The NL won the inter-league season-series 3 consecutive years from 2018 through 2020 after 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017. AL has now won 16 of the last 19 seasons. 

NL teams have at least done better in 2022 than their 44.625% record in 2021 (including World Series and All-Star matches). Last year's AL victory depended on the mighty mighty AL East's inter-league mastery -- 64% in 2021. But, the AL East is down to a 56% success rate in 2022. 

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements has shrunk thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-dress executives who started in AL organizations and have crossed over to manage NL teams.