The National Football League (NFL) is my principal interest (aside from toy boy and fiance Archibald), but just for fun I pick Canadian Football League (CFL) games against the spread (ATS).
After correctly picking BC -7 over Winnipeg in the Grey Cup, I was chuffed to finish 44-32-1 or 57.8% ATS for 2011.
I was 45-32 or 58.4% winners ATS in 2010 and am 55% to the good over 2009 to 2011 combined.
Official Godiva toy boy and fiance Archibald was totally wrong with his mid-year prediction that Montreal would triumph over Calgary in the Grey Cup. Spend more time in my boudoir and less time in betting parlours, Archibald, you handsome devil.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Friday, May 20, 2011
Major League Baseball 2011 Recap
Modified 1 November
American League (AL) teams won 134 of 260 interleague games in 2011 or 51.5%.
2011 is the 8th year running starting with 2004 that AL teams have won more interleague games than their National League (NL) rivals.
But, the NL has now taken 3 of the last 4 World Series contests and 6 of the last 11 as well as the All-Star game for 2 consecutive years. The NL's overall winning % of 48.5% in all 2011 inter-league games is the NL's best performance since 48.8% in 2004. Is the worm turning slowly away from this long period of AL dominance?
American League (AL) teams won 134 of 260 interleague games in 2011 or 51.5%.
2011 is the 8th year running starting with 2004 that AL teams have won more interleague games than their National League (NL) rivals.
But, the NL has now taken 3 of the last 4 World Series contests and 6 of the last 11 as well as the All-Star game for 2 consecutive years. The NL's overall winning % of 48.5% in all 2011 inter-league games is the NL's best performance since 48.8% in 2004. Is the worm turning slowly away from this long period of AL dominance?
Monday, May 16, 2011
NBA 2011 Play-offs Recap
Modified 14 June 2011
Against the spread (ATS) I ended up 36-40-5 or 47.5% ATS in the 2011 playoffs.
Overdog favourites won 53 of 81 games straight-up -- a touch below my expectation that overdogs win about 2 out of every 3 contests over a large sample of 1,000 games. But, 18 of 81 games turned on points -- a touch above the long-run average trend of about 1 in 5 games decided by the point spread. As a result, my all-overdog approach (except for the final game) did not pay off this year for participants in friendly, non-profit NBA playoff pools based on picking winners ATS.
I should say that over the past 4 NBA playoff years starting with 2008 I am 53.7% ATS.
Against the spread (ATS) I ended up 36-40-5 or 47.5% ATS in the 2011 playoffs.
Overdog favourites won 53 of 81 games straight-up -- a touch below my expectation that overdogs win about 2 out of every 3 contests over a large sample of 1,000 games. But, 18 of 81 games turned on points -- a touch above the long-run average trend of about 1 in 5 games decided by the point spread. As a result, my all-overdog approach (except for the final game) did not pay off this year for participants in friendly, non-profit NBA playoff pools based on picking winners ATS.
I should say that over the past 4 NBA playoff years starting with 2008 I am 53.7% ATS.
Saturday, April 9, 2011
NBA Heavy Underdogs: 59.5% ATS in 2010/11
For the past 3 years, I have followed what I call my Gibbs-Gipp system based on a Stanford undergrad economics essay, which in turn was based on data from 15,859 National Basketball Association (NBA) regular season games played between the 1993–1994 and the 2006–2007 seasons with a point spread greater than 12.
The statistically significant part of the Gibbs-Gipp system – backing all "heavy" underdogs receiving more than 12 points – came through with 59.5% winners over the 2010/11 NBA regular season after delivering 61.8% and 54.7% success rate against the points in 2009/10 and 2008/9 respectively.
Over the past 3 NBA regular seasons averaged together, I am 58%.
The statistically significant part of the Gibbs-Gipp system – backing all "heavy" underdogs receiving more than 12 points – came through with 59.5% winners over the 2010/11 NBA regular season after delivering 61.8% and 54.7% success rate against the points in 2009/10 and 2008/9 respectively.
Over the past 3 NBA regular seasons averaged together, I am 58%.
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