Official Godiva toy boy Archibald participates in a friendly, non-profit office pool picking major-league baseball (MLB) winners in all games over the course of the season.
His pool works like this. He gets:
• 1 point for a win backing an overdog;
• -1 point for a loss backing an underdog;
• +1.x points for a win backing an underdog with 1.x based on the posted odds;
• -1.x points for a loss backing an overdog with 1.x based on the posted odds.
I am advising Archibald to pick the American League (AL) team in all inter-league games.
Forget about analyzing pitching match-ups or home and away records.
The AL sports a 57% record against National League (NL) opponents in over 1,000 regular season inter-league contests from 2005 through 2008. The AL has won 7 of the past 11 World Series and 10 of the past 16. Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won the last 11 all-star games to reach a decision and 17 of the last 20. Last year, this all-AL strategy generated a net gain of +30.75 pool points over 258 inter-league contests.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Monday, May 4, 2009
NBA Playoffs Round 2
In your friendly, non-profit NBA playoff pools, stick with overdogs and give the points in all round 2 match-ups until I see a value “underdog”.
Atlanta might eventually get enough points against King James to warrant selection as a “value” underdog, but hold off for now.
After round 1 and 1 game from round 2, I am 24-22 or 52% against the points. There has been no trend at all so far. All-road, all-homer, all-underdog and all-overdog strategies are all 50/50 so far.
Last year, I rode my same system to a 55.8% record in the 2008 NBA playoffs and over two years of picking NCAA March madness matches I did better still at 55.9%.
The statistically significant part of what I modestly call my Gipp-Gibbs system – backing all “heavy” underdogs receiving 12.5 or more points (the Gibbs part of the Gipp-Gibbs system) – came in with 54.7% winners over the 2008/9 NBA regular season.
Let’s see where I am when this year’s playoffs are complete.
Jarhead’s Baseball Update
This comment is courtesy of Godiva toy boy Archibald’s buddy Jarhead.
Are my hometown Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, LA Dodgers, Seattle Mariners and Florida Marlins really as good as their records look?
BJays, St. Louis and Dodgers have benefited from some good luck, but have been the best teams in their divisions. BJays may not be able to keep it up, but so far, so good and so much better than expected.
Seattle and Florida are sub-.500 teams that will sink back to their true levels.
Tampa Bay has been plagued by a run of bad luck and will challenge for 1st just by maintaining the same level of play.
Who’s the best team in New York? The Mets are the best team in the NL East, while the Yankees are lucky to be over .500.
Of course, the American League (AL) has been so much better than the National League (NL) over the past several years that a .500 AL team might be better than a 1st place NL team. Stay tuned for that story when inter-league games begin.
Atlanta might eventually get enough points against King James to warrant selection as a “value” underdog, but hold off for now.
After round 1 and 1 game from round 2, I am 24-22 or 52% against the points. There has been no trend at all so far. All-road, all-homer, all-underdog and all-overdog strategies are all 50/50 so far.
Last year, I rode my same system to a 55.8% record in the 2008 NBA playoffs and over two years of picking NCAA March madness matches I did better still at 55.9%.
The statistically significant part of what I modestly call my Gipp-Gibbs system – backing all “heavy” underdogs receiving 12.5 or more points (the Gibbs part of the Gipp-Gibbs system) – came in with 54.7% winners over the 2008/9 NBA regular season.
Let’s see where I am when this year’s playoffs are complete.
Jarhead’s Baseball Update
This comment is courtesy of Godiva toy boy Archibald’s buddy Jarhead.
Are my hometown Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, LA Dodgers, Seattle Mariners and Florida Marlins really as good as their records look?
BJays, St. Louis and Dodgers have benefited from some good luck, but have been the best teams in their divisions. BJays may not be able to keep it up, but so far, so good and so much better than expected.
Seattle and Florida are sub-.500 teams that will sink back to their true levels.
Tampa Bay has been plagued by a run of bad luck and will challenge for 1st just by maintaining the same level of play.
Who’s the best team in New York? The Mets are the best team in the NL East, while the Yankees are lucky to be over .500.
Of course, the American League (AL) has been so much better than the National League (NL) over the past several years that a .500 AL team might be better than a 1st place NL team. Stay tuned for that story when inter-league games begin.
Friday, April 17, 2009
NBA Playoffs Game 1 Picks
Just for fun (and it's always about fun, never money, since you can't make money consistently picking winners against the point spread), I'm following a strategy based on a Stanford undergraduate essay.
http://siepr.stanford.edu/siepr_news/JGibbs_NBA_Analysis.pdf
Based on the statistically not significant part of the strategy, I recommend giving the points and taking all overdog favourites against the point lines in game 1.
Check back with my blog as the playoffs unfold and I will discuss the statistically significant part of the Gibbs plan.
http://siepr.stanford.edu/siepr_news/JGibbs_NBA_Analysis.pdf
Based on the statistically not significant part of the strategy, I recommend giving the points and taking all overdog favourites against the point lines in game 1.
Check back with my blog as the playoffs unfold and I will discuss the statistically significant part of the Gibbs plan.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
NCAA Wrap-Up
Baracketer-in-Chief Obama and I correctly picked UNC.
Kudos to the President for picking UNC to win right at the start of the tournament. I just went along round-by-round backing UNC against the points except when they were heavily favoured in round 1. But, I am proud of finishing 5-3 against the President giving him the points in games when I disagreed with his straight-up bracket selections.
Overall, I finished 34-29-1 or 54%. Over two years of following my system in March madness match-ups, I have picked 56% winners against the spread (ATS).
Before falling in love with my genius, note that a plain-vanilla, all-overdogs strategy is 60% ATS over the last two NCAA tournaments.
NBA Update
I am now 51-45-2 or 53% following the Gibbs system of taking all "heavy" underdogs.
Baseball
I won't be active on this site until inter-league baseball starts. I have a very simple system to advise participants in season-long, non-profit pools with points based on posted odds.
Farewell to my friends at http://www.faniq.com/. I'm not happy with the changes at this site and won't be wasting my time there anymore. But, I am still a member of the http://www.crowdpicks.com/ community.
Kudos to the President for picking UNC to win right at the start of the tournament. I just went along round-by-round backing UNC against the points except when they were heavily favoured in round 1. But, I am proud of finishing 5-3 against the President giving him the points in games when I disagreed with his straight-up bracket selections.
Overall, I finished 34-29-1 or 54%. Over two years of following my system in March madness match-ups, I have picked 56% winners against the spread (ATS).
Before falling in love with my genius, note that a plain-vanilla, all-overdogs strategy is 60% ATS over the last two NCAA tournaments.
NBA Update
I am now 51-45-2 or 53% following the Gibbs system of taking all "heavy" underdogs.
Baseball
I won't be active on this site until inter-league baseball starts. I have a very simple system to advise participants in season-long, non-profit pools with points based on posted odds.
Farewell to my friends at http://www.faniq.com/. I'm not happy with the changes at this site and won't be wasting my time there anymore. But, I am still a member of the http://www.crowdpicks.com/ community.
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