In the non-profit, just-for-fun pools organized by present and past Godiva toy boys Archibald and Reginald, I lost taking underdog HOTLANTA +3 over NE CHEATRIOTS in Super Bowl LI.
I was confident going with the Super Bowl underdog. According to Professor Steven Leavitt of Freakonomics fame, the Super Bowl underdog is the best ATS pick of the year.
After 51 Bowls, Super underdogs are 25-24-2 ATS. Over 1000 Super Bowls we might expect to see underdogs closer to 55% than 50% ATS.
On a straight-up, no-spread basis, the NFC is up XXVI to XXV for the AFC after LI Super Bowls.
Hail to the Cheatriots of NEW ENGLAND for their Vth Super Bowl triumph in the last XVI years. Coach Bill Belicheat and fellow Donald Trump supporters Tom Brady and Robert Kraft are living the high life.
The divisional round is the only week of the year when I take all overdogs. Tuesday Morning Quarterback Gregg Easterbrook points out that the top 2 seeds have won 73% of play-off matches straight-up after the bye week going back to 1990. I went 2-2 ATS, but, over 500 years or so, I would expect home teams in a play-off match after a bye week to finish above 50% ATS by a statistically significant margin.
I finished 2-9 ATS in the 2017 play-offs and have finished under 50% ATS in the play-offs for the 7th straight year and 13th of the past 14. Over 16 years of play-off picking, I am averaging a statistically insignificant but discouraging 40% ATS.
This regular season I finished under 50% ATS for the first time since 2007. I ended the regular year at 120-124-12 = 78-81-9 road underdogs, 42-37-3 home underdogs and 0-6 home overdogs.
A simple all-underdog strategy defeated all-overdogs during the regular season for the 20th year out of the past 25, but just barely this year. Overdog favourites won outright 63% of regular season matches this year. ATS point reversals knocked the overdog winning % ATS down by 15 percentage points. The overdog straight-up victory rate was below the long-run norm of about 2/3. A bit less than 1/4 of overdog straight-up wins reversed ATS was also a touch below what we would expect.
I finished for 38th out of 91 players in Archibald's pool, 32nd of 63 in Reginald's and 16th in the pool at the Randy Badger, Archibald's local gastropub for weekend brunching while watching European football. The Randy Badger pool offers point spreads that are usually more favourable to my mostly underdogs strategy.
Monday, September 5, 2016
Monday, June 20, 2016
CFL 2016 ATS Recap
To humour my Canadian toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald, I participate in his non-profit Canadian Football League (CFL) pool against the spread (ATS).
I finished 42-41-3 ATS: 22-16-1 road underdogs, 4-1-1 road overdogs, 7-14-1 home favourites and 9-10 home underdogs.
In the Grey Cup, I correctly picked OTTAWA +9 over calgary. Arch thought I was barmy to pick Ottawa ATS, but I have correctly picked 8 of the last 9 Grey Cup ATS winners. Underdogs have won 7 of the last 9 Grey Cups ATS.
I am 52.8% over 8 years picking CFL winners ATS starting in 2009 . Not enough matches to be statistically significantly better than 50% dart-throwing, but I am still proud of being above 50% over 8 years. However, before I start calling myself the CFL ATS Nostradamus, I have to admit that I finished below 50% in 2 of the last 4 years. Overall, I am behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.7% over 2009-2016. All-underdogs finished 46-37-3 ATS in 2016. Road teams were 50-33-3 ATS.
Arch points out that western teams are 118-74-1 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2016 and 102-88-3 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. Despite Calgary's loss this year, the west has won 3 of the last 4 Grey Cups and 8 of the past 12. In 2016, the west was 28-13-2 ATS and 29-13-1 straight-up against the east.
I finished 42-41-3 ATS: 22-16-1 road underdogs, 4-1-1 road overdogs, 7-14-1 home favourites and 9-10 home underdogs.
In the Grey Cup, I correctly picked OTTAWA +9 over calgary. Arch thought I was barmy to pick Ottawa ATS, but I have correctly picked 8 of the last 9 Grey Cup ATS winners. Underdogs have won 7 of the last 9 Grey Cups ATS.
I am 52.8% over 8 years picking CFL winners ATS starting in 2009 . Not enough matches to be statistically significantly better than 50% dart-throwing, but I am still proud of being above 50% over 8 years. However, before I start calling myself the CFL ATS Nostradamus, I have to admit that I finished below 50% in 2 of the last 4 years. Overall, I am behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.7% over 2009-2016. All-underdogs finished 46-37-3 ATS in 2016. Road teams were 50-33-3 ATS.
Arch points out that western teams are 118-74-1 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2016 and 102-88-3 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. Despite Calgary's loss this year, the west has won 3 of the last 4 Grey Cups and 8 of the past 12. In 2016, the west was 28-13-2 ATS and 29-13-1 straight-up against the east.
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Westbrook Trumps Mark Cuban
Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban can focus now on lobbying Donald Trump for the vice-president nomination now that the Thunder have eliminated Cuban's toy NBA team.
http://www.inc.com/jeremy-quittner/mark-cuban-open-to-vice-president-on-ticket-with-donald-trump.html
After Cuban damned Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook with faint praise, Westbrook responded with 36 points, 9 assists and 12 rebounds to put away the Mavericks.
Westbrook's running mate Kevin Durant summed up Cuban's qualifications to be vice-president, NBA analyst or any other post requiring good judgment.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15357001/dallas-mavericks-owner-mark-cuban-says-russell-westbrook-oklahoma-city-thunder-all-star-not-superstar
That leaves Tom Brady as the clear favourite to be Trump's choice for vice president.
And now more proof that as a prospective political candidate, Cuban fits Kevin Durant's description of mighty-in-his-own-mind Mark.
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/mark-cuban-open-being-trump-or-clinton-s-vp-n578241
To be fair, Trump won the Cuban-American vote to help him win Florida, but Mark Cuban himself saw the light before the election and switched to backing Hillary Clinton. Interesting interview with Cuban about politics and basketball:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nate-silver-and-mark-cuban-talk-a-lot-of-politics-and-a-little-basketball/
http://www.inc.com/jeremy-quittner/mark-cuban-open-to-vice-president-on-ticket-with-donald-trump.html
After Cuban damned Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook with faint praise, Westbrook responded with 36 points, 9 assists and 12 rebounds to put away the Mavericks.
Westbrook's running mate Kevin Durant summed up Cuban's qualifications to be vice-president, NBA analyst or any other post requiring good judgment.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15357001/dallas-mavericks-owner-mark-cuban-says-russell-westbrook-oklahoma-city-thunder-all-star-not-superstar
That leaves Tom Brady as the clear favourite to be Trump's choice for vice president.
And now more proof that as a prospective political candidate, Cuban fits Kevin Durant's description of mighty-in-his-own-mind Mark.
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/mark-cuban-open-being-trump-or-clinton-s-vp-n578241
To be fair, Trump won the Cuban-American vote to help him win Florida, but Mark Cuban himself saw the light before the election and switched to backing Hillary Clinton. Interesting interview with Cuban about politics and basketball:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nate-silver-and-mark-cuban-talk-a-lot-of-politics-and-a-little-basketball/
Monday, April 4, 2016
Inter-league Baseball 2016 Recap
The surest outcome in sports was that American League (AL) teams would win the majority of inter-league matches against their National League (NL) opponents in 2016.
The AL has been the superior league by far and has been for more than a decade. 2016 marks 13 consecutive AL triumphs over the NL starting with 2004.
AL teams won 54.87% of inter-league matches in 2016 including the AL's 4th consecutive All-Star triumph and Cleveland's 3-4 loss in World Series matches. I was surprised to see the NL staying even until nearly 1/3 of the way through the year after getting off to a 30-21 start. (The NL's performance this year reminds me of my ex-toy boy Reginald.) The AL finally re-asserted its superiority and finished 2016 a touch above its annual average winning record of 54.746% for the entire 2004-2016 period of AL dominance.
Nevertheless, over this 13-year period of AL dominance the NL is actually ahead 7-6 in World Series victories. However, over a longer period, the AL representative has won 19 of the past 33 World Series.
And, the AL has now won 16 of the last 19 all-star games to reach a decision and 22 of the last 28.
The only positive sign for the NL is that the AL's 53.7% average (including All-Star and World Series matches) from 2010-16 is below the 55.9% average from 2004 through 2009.
And, with the NY Mets, Chicago Cubs and LA Dodgers now run by AL-analytics-alumunae, the years of NL inferiority may be numbered. The Cubs were the best team in either league in 2016 and were 19-8 in their regular season and World Series matches against AL teams. I stuck with my annual prediction that the AL representative would win the World Series and was wrong yet again.
The Cubs' success remains the exception in the NL. Until the analytic approach spreads throughout the NL, the theme for most NL management teams will continue to be the Scarecrow's song from the Wizard of Oz: "If I only had a brain"
The AL has been the superior league by far and has been for more than a decade. 2016 marks 13 consecutive AL triumphs over the NL starting with 2004.
AL teams won 54.87% of inter-league matches in 2016 including the AL's 4th consecutive All-Star triumph and Cleveland's 3-4 loss in World Series matches. I was surprised to see the NL staying even until nearly 1/3 of the way through the year after getting off to a 30-21 start. (The NL's performance this year reminds me of my ex-toy boy Reginald.) The AL finally re-asserted its superiority and finished 2016 a touch above its annual average winning record of 54.746% for the entire 2004-2016 period of AL dominance.
Nevertheless, over this 13-year period of AL dominance the NL is actually ahead 7-6 in World Series victories. However, over a longer period, the AL representative has won 19 of the past 33 World Series.
And, the AL has now won 16 of the last 19 all-star games to reach a decision and 22 of the last 28.
The only positive sign for the NL is that the AL's 53.7% average (including All-Star and World Series matches) from 2010-16 is below the 55.9% average from 2004 through 2009.
And, with the NY Mets, Chicago Cubs and LA Dodgers now run by AL-analytics-alumunae, the years of NL inferiority may be numbered. The Cubs were the best team in either league in 2016 and were 19-8 in their regular season and World Series matches against AL teams. I stuck with my annual prediction that the AL representative would win the World Series and was wrong yet again.
The Cubs' success remains the exception in the NL. Until the analytic approach spreads throughout the NL, the theme for most NL management teams will continue to be the Scarecrow's song from the Wizard of Oz: "If I only had a brain"
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