NFL Picks ATS 2024 Week 8

Sticking with underdogs despite another bad year for home underdogs -- historically the best bet in sports up until 2023.

I am keeping track of the all-underdogs record for the entire National Football League (NFL) 2024 season including playoffs. After 8 weeks, underdogs so far are 56-64-2 against the spread (ATS) or 47%: 39--37-1 road underdogs and 17-27-1 homie dogs. 

Over many decades, NFL home underdogs were the best bet in sports -- but not this year or last. Home underdogs were 2-16 ATS over weeks 5-7. Home underdogs went 47-51-5 in 2023-2024 including playoffs.  

I will not abandon my all-underdogs strategy after one bad year last year in 2023-4 and a bad start this year.

A simple all-underdogs strategy recorded 25 winning NFL regular seasons over the past 32 against the spread (ATS), a track record significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's catch-phrases). At this point, it is probable that underdogs will lose the NFL regular season ATS for the 2nd consecutive year. If anyone knows when is the last time that happened, I would be glad to know.

I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS is not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicity built into odds offered by gambling houses. 

Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for the customers, but not the workers.

CFL Picks ATS 2024: Week 10

Sorry, I have been so caught up helping Arch with his substacking that I haven't had time to update my CFL picks. I will be back in action before the season ends.  

In week 10, I pick all underdogs against the spread (ATS) except calgary  -1.5 v. TORONTO. 

After 9 weeks, I am 20-15-1 = 8-2 home underdogs, 8-6-1 road underdogs, 3-3 home overdogs, and 1-4 road overdogs. 

I am 51% over 13 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners against the spread (ATS) from 2009 on. (Recall that the  CFL cancelled their 2020 season, so there have been only 14 seasons from 2009 through 2023.) I have had 5 losing CFL years out of 14. I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2023. 2023 was the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. So far in 2024, underdogs are back on track at 23-12-1

Last year 2023 was my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. 

Godiva toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald points out that western teams are 254-168-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2024 and 215-204-5 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. In 2024, the east leads 12-7 straight-up and 10-9 ATS in inter-conference matches after winning both in 2023. 

I am starting to accept that the years of western dominance are over. Arch still backs the west.

The west has still won 6 of the last 10 Grey Cups and 11 of the past 17. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 10-4 ATS picking the past 14 Grey Cups. 

Arch is too busy with his new hobby of substacking to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks are just for fun. 

Nate Silver is the Bill James of political analysts

 "Just as James did for baseball, Silver taught us how to look at presidential campaigns analytically."

from

https://economystupid.substack.com/

No surprise. Nate Silver wrote for and owned a share of Baseball Prospectus before he turned his talents to analyzing elections.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/  

MLB inter-league: NL rules in 2024

National League (NL) teams defeated their American League (AL) rivals 371 wins to 322 (53.5%-46.5%) even after including the first 2 World Series (WS) matches and the All-Star match in the 2024 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB's) inter-league rivalry. 

2024 was the NL's 5th best year in 27 years of regular season inter-league play starting in 1997. 

The NL defeated even the once-dominant AL East 122-110 (52.6%). AL East teams had won 56.6% of inter-league games from 2020 through 2023. 

The AL had won 16 of the previous 20 inter-league seasons with All-Star and World Series matches included in the counts. After 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017, the NL has now won the inter-league contest for 5 of 7 seasons starting with 2018.

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements shrank over the years thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started with AL squads before crossing over to manage NL teams. 

The AL's only remaining claim to superiority is winning 10 of the past 11 All-Star contests, 22 of the last 26 to reach a decision and 28 of 35.

The NL representative Dodgers were rightly favoured to take the World Series.   

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. For the vast majority, it's not possible to earn a long-term profit gambling.