Despite another bad year for underdogs, I am sticking with underdogs against the spread (ATS) this week 12 starting with CLEVELAND +3.5 over blitzburgh. My Thursday night record this year is especially dismal.
I am keeping track of the all-underdogs record for the entire National Football League (NFL) 2024 season including playoffs. After 10 weeks, underdogs so far are 77-86-2 against the spread (ATS) or 47%: 50-50-1 road underdogs and 27-36-1 homie doggies.
Over many decades, NFL home underdogs were the best bet in sports -- but not this year or last. Home underdogs went 9-21 ATS over weeks 5-9. Home underdogs went 47-51-5 in 2023-2024 including playoffs.
I will not abandon my all-underdogs strategy after one bad year last year in 2023-4 and another bad half-year so far this year.
A simple all-underdogs strategy recorded 25 winning NFL regular seasons over the past 32 against the spread (ATS), a track record significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's catch-phrases). At this point, it is probable that underdogs will lose the NFL regular season ATS for the 2nd consecutive year. If anyone knows when is the last time that happened, I would be glad to know.
I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS is not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicity built into odds offered by gambling houses.
Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for the customers, but not the workers.