NFL picks 2025: Have underdogs lost their mojo?

I will keep track of the all-underdogs record for the National Football League (NFL) 2025 season. 

29-34-1 after 4 weeks = 17-21-1 road underdogs + 12-13 home underdogs. 

For 3 decades through the 2022 regular season, home NFL underdogs was the best bet in sports -- not every year, but most years. 

So far this year, overdog favorites have a 68% winning record before taking the spread into account. 14% of matches have been reversed on points against the spread (ATS). So far this year, the overdog winning % is a touch above the long-term trend and fewer matches have been decided on points than we might expect. It's early, but that is consistent with the hypothesis that the long-time misperception is no longer there in the betting market that overdog favorites will win by larger margins than turn out to be the case. 

Could it possibly be the case that NFL underdogs no longer rule?

A simple all-underdogs strategy recorded 25 winning NFL regular seasons over the past 33 ATS. But, underdogs lost the last 2 NFL regular seasons. 

Have bettors finally twigged to the fact that they overestimated overdog favorites for years through 2022-23? It's possible. I expect underdogs to win a bit more than 1/3 of all matches straight-up and a bit more than 1/6 of all matches on points. Over the previous two seasons, underdogs won a bit less than 1/6 of all matches on points and bit less than 1/3 of all matches straight-up. Are the unusual results of the past 2 seasons just a short-term random walk around the long-term average? Or has the underdog-tilt identified by Professor Steven Levitt vanished? We will need a few more seasons to reach a conclusion. In the meantime, I will stick with regular-season underdogs in 2025 in the just-for-fun pool that Godiva boy toy Archibald introduced me to. I will not abandon my all-underdogs regular season strategy just because of two consecutive bad years.

I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS is not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicity built into odds offered by gambling houses. 

Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for customers, but not workers.

CFL Picks ATS: 2025 Week 11

Sorry, loyal Godivans. Same problem as last year in 2024. Chaos caused by doesn't-deserve-me Godiva toy boy Archibald preventing me from keeping up. Hope to catch up later this year. Archibald predicts that the 4th place western team will make the eastern playoffs with a better record that eastern 3rd team.

I am stuck with all western teams in week 11. 

I am 23-16 against the spread (ATS) in 2025 after 10 weeks = 2-4 home overdogs, 3-2 road overdogs, 6-6 home underdogs, 12-4 road underdogs. 

Godiva toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald points out that western teams are now 274-186-4 or 59.5% straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2025 including Grey Cups and other playoff games. 

After 2024, I was starting to accept that the years of western dominance are over. In 2024, east bested west 23-16-2 after winning in 2023 as well. The east has won the past 3 Grey Cups after the west won 6 of the previous 8 and 11 of the previous 15. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 10-5 ATS picking the past 15 Grey Cups, although I admit to losing the past 3. 

I am glad that I stuck with a western tilt in 2025. The west is 11-7 straight-up and 12-6 ATS this year. 

I am 51% over 15 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners ATS from 2009 on. (Recall that the  CFL cancelled their 2020 season, so there have been only 15 seasons from 2009 through 2024.) I have had 5 losing CFL years out of 15. I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2024. 2023 was the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. 2023 was my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. 

Arch is too busy with his new hobby to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks this year are just for fun. 

Sorry to say that I have been so caught up helping Godiva toy boy and permanent fiance Arch with his substacking that I still haven't had time to update my CFL picking record for the entire 2024 season. 

AL wins 2025 MLB inter-league regular season

In the 2025 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB's) inter-league rivalry, American League (AL) teams bested their National League (NL) rivals 367 wins to 354 (50.9%) after including the NL winning the All-Star match. 

The AL East led the way with a 56% winning record. No AL East squad has a losing record against the NL. The AL West finished at 51%. The AL Central's 46% record against the NL held the AL back. If an AL East team goes through to the World Series, I will predict an AL win. 

After 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017, the NL won the inter-league contest for 5 of 7 seasons starting with 2018 through 2024.

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements shrank over the years thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started with AL squads before crossing over to manage NL teams. 

The AL's remaining claim to superiority is winning 10 of the past 12 All-Star contests, 22 of the last 27 to reach a decision and 28 of 36.

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. For the vast majority, it's not possible to earn a long-term profit gambling.

NFL Picks ATS: 2024-5 Recap

Gratified to correctly pick against the spread (ATS) in Super Bowl LIX:

PHILLY +1 over KC swifties 

Professor Steven Levitt argued that the Super Bowl (SB) underdog is the single best bet in sports. We won't know if he's right for another CMXLI years.

I finished 8-4-1 ATS in playoffs = 5-1 wild card round + 2-1-1 divisional round + 0-2 conference champs + 1-0 SB = 1-3-1 road underdogs, 3-0 home underdogs and 3-1 home overdogs. 

I kept track of the all-underdogs record for the entire National Football League (NFL) 2024-5 season including playoffs. Underdogs finished 121-147-4 against the spread (ATS) or 45% = 75-90-2 road underdogs and 46-57-2 homie doggies. As a result, I finished dead last in the one ATS season-long pool I swim in.  

Over many decades, NFL home underdogs were the best bet in sports -- but not this year or last. Home underdogs went 9-21 ATS over weeks 5-9. Home underdogs went 47-51-5 in 2023-2024 including playoffs. 

 A simple all-underdogs strategy has recorded 25 winning NFL regular seasons over the past 33 against the spread (ATS), a track record significant to statheads (to borrow one of toy boy Archibald's catch-phrases). 

Underdogs lost the NFL regular season ATS for the 2nd consecutive year. If anyone knows when is the last time that happened, I would be glad to know. And, has there ever been a worse underdog ATS winning % than 45% this year?

Have bettors finally twigged to the fact that they overestimated overdog favorites for years through 2022-23? It's possible. I expect underdogs to win a bit more than 1/3 of all matches straight-up and a bit more than 1/6 of all matches on points. Over the past two years, underdogs have won a bit less than 1/6 of all matches on points and bit less than 1/3  of all matches straight-up. Are the unusual results of the past 2 years just a short-term random walk around the long-term average? Or has the underdog-tilt identified by Steven Levitt vanished? We will need a few more seasons to reach a conclusion. In the meantime, I will stick with regular-season underdogs in 2025. I will not abandon my all-underdogs regular season strategy just because of two consecutive bad years.

I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS is not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicity built into odds offered by gambling houses. 

Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for customers, but not workers.