For Super Bowl LIII in toy boy fiance Archibald's fun pool, I was wrong with my pick of
LA RAMS +2.5 over ne cheatriots
Freakonomics Professor Steven Leavitt recommends the Super Bowl underdog as the best bet in sports. So far after LIII Super Bowls, underdogs are leading against the spread (ATS) XXVI-XXV-II.
Lady Godiva finally enjoyed a successful play-offs at 8-3 ATS after picking all home overdogs (3-1) in the divisional 1/4 final round and all road underdogs (5-1) in the wild card and conference champ rounds. This was only my 2nd winning play-off year in the past 16.
The divisional round is the only week of the year when I take all home overdogs. Tuesday Morning Quarterback Gregg Easterbrook points out that the top 2 seeds have won almost 3/4 of play-off matches straight-up after the bye week going back to 1990 -- well above the usual 2/3 straight-up winning rate for overdogs. Over 250 years and 1,000 matches, I would expect home teams in a play-off match after a bye week to finish above 50% ATS by a statistically significant margin.
After 17 weeks of regular season action, I finished 132-118-6 = 86-74-4 road underdogs, 41-38-1 home underdogs, 1-1-1 road favourite overdogs and 4-5 home favourite overdogs. (Over the last several years, I have had an unfortunate knack for picking overdog losers.)
I finished behind a simple all-underdog strategy, which racked up a 21st winning regular season in the past 27 years. If anyone out there has ATS data for regular seasons prior to 1992, please provide said data in a comment or let me know where NFL regular season ATS pre-1992 data might be available on the inter-web.
Wednesday, September 5, 2018
Monday, June 11, 2018
CFL Picks ATS: 2018 Recap
In my Canadian toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald's non-profit Canadian Football League (CFL) pool against the spread (ATS), I correctly picked Calgary -6.5 over Ottawa in the 2018 Grey Cup. I am 8-2 ATS picking the previous 10 Grey Cups.
For the 2018 season, I finished 46-39-1 or 54% ATS: 11-9-1 with home overdogs, 10-5 home underdogs, 8-7 road overdogs and 17-18 road underdogs.
I am 52.38% over 10 years picking CFL winners ATS starting in 2009 through 2018. I have had only 3 losing CFL year ATS out of 10. However, I am behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.1% over 2009-2018.
Arch points out that western teams were 177-99-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2018 and 148-126-4 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. The west has won 4 of the last 6 Grey Cups and 9 of the past 14. In 2018, the west was 29-13 against the east straight-up and 23-18-1 ATS.
For the 2018 season, I finished 46-39-1 or 54% ATS: 11-9-1 with home overdogs, 10-5 home underdogs, 8-7 road overdogs and 17-18 road underdogs.
I am 52.38% over 10 years picking CFL winners ATS starting in 2009 through 2018. I have had only 3 losing CFL year ATS out of 10. However, I am behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.1% over 2009-2018.
Arch points out that western teams were 177-99-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2018 and 148-126-4 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. The west has won 4 of the last 6 Grey Cups and 9 of the past 14. In 2018, the west was 29-13 against the east straight-up and 23-18-1 ATS.
Thursday, May 31, 2018
NBA Finals Game 1 ATS Pick
Cleveland +12.5 over golden state
I haven't had time to track NBA "heavy" underdogs this year, but I am sticking with the weak evidence that bettors systematically overvalue "heavy" overdog favourites.
I haven't had time to track NBA "heavy" underdogs this year, but I am sticking with the weak evidence that bettors systematically overvalue "heavy" overdog favourites.
Thursday, March 29, 2018
Major League Baseball (MLB) Inter-league 2018 Recap
The surest outcome in sports had been that American League (AL) teams will win the majority of inter-league matches against their National League (NL) opponents.
After a 21-40 start, the AL crawled back to finish the regular season at 143-158 (including the AL's All-Star match victory). This is the year that the AL finally struck out. The AL lost to the NL for the first time in 15 years. See Neil Paine of 538.com:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-national-league-finally-is-getting-some-interleague-revenge/
I stood by my faith in AL superiority and picked the AL Boston Red Sox to win the World Series (WS). Including WS and All-Star matches, the AL finished 2018 at 147-159 against the NL.
The AL had been the superior league by far for more than a decade. The AL had 14 consecutive triumphs over the NL from 2004 through 2017.
Over the full period of dominance from 2004 through 2017, the AL won 54.66% of all matches -- regular season, all-star and World Series.
Nevertheless, over this 14-year period of AL dominance the NL and AL were tied 7-7 in World Series triumphs. Over this period, the AL has won 40 of 76 WS matches or 52.6%. The NL has had the good luck to distribute its WS match wins efficiently enough to end up tied 7-7.
Over a longer period from 1983 through 2018, the AL representative has won 21 of the past 35 World Series. Another indicator of the AL's long-term dominance is the fact that the AL has won 6 all-star matches in a row, 18 of the last 21 all-star matches to reach a decision and 24 of the last 30.
Before 2018, the only positive sign for the NL was that the AL's 53.7% inter-league average (including All-Star and World Series matches) from 2010-17 was below the 55.9% average from 2004 through 2009.
And, with the Chicago Cubs, LA Dodgers and SF Giants now run by AL-analytics-alumunae, the years of NL inferiority may be over.
After a 21-40 start, the AL crawled back to finish the regular season at 143-158 (including the AL's All-Star match victory). This is the year that the AL finally struck out. The AL lost to the NL for the first time in 15 years. See Neil Paine of 538.com:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-national-league-finally-is-getting-some-interleague-revenge/
I stood by my faith in AL superiority and picked the AL Boston Red Sox to win the World Series (WS). Including WS and All-Star matches, the AL finished 2018 at 147-159 against the NL.
The AL had been the superior league by far for more than a decade. The AL had 14 consecutive triumphs over the NL from 2004 through 2017.
Over the full period of dominance from 2004 through 2017, the AL won 54.66% of all matches -- regular season, all-star and World Series.
Nevertheless, over this 14-year period of AL dominance the NL and AL were tied 7-7 in World Series triumphs. Over this period, the AL has won 40 of 76 WS matches or 52.6%. The NL has had the good luck to distribute its WS match wins efficiently enough to end up tied 7-7.
Over a longer period from 1983 through 2018, the AL representative has won 21 of the past 35 World Series. Another indicator of the AL's long-term dominance is the fact that the AL has won 6 all-star matches in a row, 18 of the last 21 all-star matches to reach a decision and 24 of the last 30.
Before 2018, the only positive sign for the NL was that the AL's 53.7% inter-league average (including All-Star and World Series matches) from 2010-17 was below the 55.9% average from 2004 through 2009.
And, with the Chicago Cubs, LA Dodgers and SF Giants now run by AL-analytics-alumunae, the years of NL inferiority may be over.
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