NFL picks against the spread (ATS) 2026

Underdogs are 7-9 ATS after week 1 = 1-3 home underdogs and 6-6 road underdogs. Overdogs won 12 of 16 matches or 75% straight-up. Underdogs won 3 of 16 matches on points ATS or 18%. 

The long-term trends show that verdogs win about 2/3 of matches straight-up, while underdogs reverse about 1/4 of overdog straight-up wins when on ATS points are factored in.  

More than 20 years ago, Professor Steven Levitt argued that gamblers systematically undervalue National Football League (NFL) underdogs. 

Underdogs had a >50% ATS record in 26 of the past 34 regular seasons through 2025-26.

I will keep track of the all-underdogs ATS record for the NFL 2026-2027 season 

15% of matches were reversed on points against the spread (ATS) in each of the past 3 seasons -- below the long-term trend established over the previous 3 decades. 

So, it is possible that the prior misperception may no longer be there in the betting market that overdog favorites will win by larger margins than turn out to be the case. 

Underdogs only won 2025-26 ATS by winning a higher-than-expected % of matches outright.

Based on what seemed like regularities in place up until 2022-23, I expect underdogs to win a bit more than 1/3 of all matches straight-up and a bit more than 1/6 of all matches on points. 

Are the unusual results of the past 3 seasons just short-term random walks around long-term averages? Or has the underdog-tilt identified by Professor Steven Levitt vanished? We will need a few more seasons to reach a conclusion. 

I stuck with regular-season underdogs in 2025-26 in the just-for-fun pool that Godiva boy toy Archibald introduced me to. Because most pool players back overdog favorites, I finished 1st out of 54 players in Archibald's pool. 

I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS was not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicitly built into odds offered by gambling houses. 

Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for customers, but not workers, and that 21st century gambling is not much fun over the long run for almost all customers. 

CFL 2026: ATS picks week 16

I am picking against the spread (ATS) this week:

HAMmerville +5.5 over montreal

redmonton -1.5 over TORONTO

CALGARY -8.5 over ottawa

After 15 weeks, I am 31-28 ATS = 5-7 home underdogs, 8-5 home overdogs, 2-5 road overdogs and 15-11 road underdogs. 

Godiva toy boy  Archibald points out that western teams are now 309-204-4 or 60% straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2026 including Grey Cups and other playoff games. In 2026 the west is 19-10 against the east straight-up and 14-15 ATS. Archibald's prediction looks gooder and gooder that that the 4th place western team will cross over to the eastern playoffs with a better record than 3rd in the east.

The west was 27-15 straight-up last year in 2025 including Winterpeg's loss to MONTREAL in the eastern semi-final and Sasquatchewan's Grey Cup victory. SASquatchEWAN was 8-1 v. the east in 2025 and is 4-2 so far in 2026.

However, in 2024, east bested west 23-16-2 after winning in 2023 as well. 

The east won 3 straight Grey Cups from 2022 through 2024. But, the west has won 12 of the past 19 Grey Cups. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 11-5 ATS picking the past 16 Grey Cups, although I admit to losing the past 3 before winning 2025. 

I am 51% over 15 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners ATS from 2009 on through 2026. (I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2026. 2023 was the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. 2023 was my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. 

Arch is too busy with his new hobby to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks are just for fun now. 

Apologies to loyal Godivans for not yet updating my 2024 records ATS. Chaos caused by doesn't-deserve-me Godiva toy boy and and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald preventing me from keeping up during the regular season. And, I have been so caught up helping Godiva toy boy and permanent fiance Arch with his substacking that I still haven't had time to update my CFL picking record for 2025. 

Major League Baseball (MLB) 2026 interleague: NL dominated

In the 2026 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB's) interleague rivalry, National League teams (NL) are schooling American League (AL) teams 370 wins to 322 (53.5%) even after including the AL's victory in the all-star match. In 2026, the NL is on track to record a decisive interleague season triumph just behind the NL's 53.6% in 2024.

The AL's collective mark in interleague regular season matches is -49. As a result, only 5 of 15 AL squads have winning interleague records so far this year -- BoSox, NY Yankees, TBay, Cleveland and Texas. Only 6 of 15 AL teams have winning overall records -- the 5 listed in the previous sentence + ChiSox. Texas is leading the AL West with an overall record of just +1 or 50.3% in wins v. losses.

Even the once-dominant AL East is having a sub-par year at 52.4% (120-109) in matches against NL squads -- down from 55.5% in 2025.

After 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017, the NL won the inter-league contest for 5 of 7 seasons starting with 2018 through 2024. The AL got back on top in 2025. The AL owns a slight advantage with a 51% winning record over 30 years since interleague regular season play started in 1997. 

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements shrank over the years thanks to: 

• the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started with AL squads before crossing over to manage NL teams;
• the effects of age on AL owners no longer content to hire the best baseball minds and stay out of the way -- e.g., sad decline of the Red Sox as John Henry ages into his dotage taking the BoSox down with him. Of course, just as I picked on the Red Sox as the poster boy for AL decline, the BoSox tied their franchise record with a 15-game winning streak and soon afterward put together a 9-game streak. 

The AL's remaining claim to superiority is winning 11 of the past 13 All-Star contests, 23 of the last 28 to reach a decision and 29 of the past 37. 

After decades of AL superiority in the World Series, the NL has won 5 of the last 7 with Los Dodgers winning 3 of the last 5. Over the last 2 decades from 2006-2025, the NL is ahead 12-8. From 1983 through 2005, the AL won 15 of 22 World Series championships.

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. For the vast majority, it's not possible to earn a long-term profit gambling. Online sports betting is the new House of the Rising Sun: "It's been the ruin of many a poor boy. And, God I know that my ex-toy boy is one."

NFL 2025-26 ATS Recap

I was wrong picking ne Krafties +4.5 over SEATTLE against the spread (ATS) in Super Bowl LX.

Professor Steven Levitt argued that the Super Bowl (SB) underdog is the single best bet in sports. 

So far, he's not right. Underdogs are XXVIII-XXX-II ATS in LX Super Bowls. 

Overdog favorites have won XL or LXVII% of Super Bowls, in line with what we would expect from the history of regular season matches. 

But, the point spread has added only XIV% to underdogs ATS winning % -- a bit below what we would expect if Super Bowls were no different than regular season matches and certainly below what Professor Levitt expects. We won't know if he's statistically significantly correct or incorrect for another CMXL years. 

In the play-offs this year, I finished 7-6 = 4-2 home underdogs, 2-0 home overdogs and 1-4 road underdogs.

The divisional round of 1/4 finals is the one week when I stick my neck out and pick home overdogs based on Tuesday Morning Quarterback (TMQ) Gregg Easterbrook's research showing that high-seeded home teams coming off a bye week of rest win 3/4 of divisional round matches straight-up. TMQ steered me right this year.

I kept track of the all-underdogs record for the National Football League (NFL) 2025-26 season. 

Did underdogs find their mojo? Against the spread (ATS), underdogs finished the regular season 139-131-2 or 51.47% = 77-76-2 road underdogs + 62-55 home underdogs. 

For 3 decades through the 2022 regular season, home NFL underdogs were the best bets in sports -- not every year, but most years. 

And, there was also a slight tilt toward road underdogs winning a touch more than 50% ATS. 

As a result, a simple all-underdogs strategy recorded 25 winning NFL regular seasons out of 31 through 2022. 

However, underdogs lost the previous 2 NFL regular seasons 2023-4 and 2024-5 and were losing again earlier in 2025 until underdogs resumed their top-dog status. 

So, underdogs have now won 26 of the past 34 regular seasons through 2025-26.

In 2025-26, overdog favorites had a 63% winning record before taking the spread into account -- down from 71% the year prior. 15% of 2025-26 matches were reversed on points against the spread (ATS). Both were below long-term trends. 

15.3% of 2023-24 and 2024-25 matches were decided on points. So, 2025-26 was the 3rd straight year the number of matches decided on points was below what might expect. That is consistent with the theory that the long-time misperception may no longer be there in the betting market that overdog favorites will win by larger margins than turn out to be the case. 

After last season, I wondered if it could be the case that NFL underdogs no longer rule. Had bettors finally twigged to the fact that they overestimated overdog favorites for years through 2022? It's possible. Underdogs only won 2025-26 by winning a higher-than-expected % of matches outright.

Based on what seemed like regularities in place up until 2022-23, I expect underdogs to win a bit more than 1/3 of all matches straight-up and a bit more than 1/6 of all matches on points. 

Are the unusual results of the past 3 seasons just short-term random walks around long-term averages? Or has the underdog-tilt identified by Professor Steven Levitt vanished? We will need a few more seasons to reach a conclusion. 

In the meantime, I stuck with regular-season underdogs in 2025-26 in the just-for-fun pool that Godiva boy toy Archibald introduced me to. Because most pool players back overdog favorites, I finished 1st out of 54 players in Archibald's pool. 

I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS was not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicitly built into odds offered by gambling houses. 

Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for customers, but not workers.

CFL Recap 2025 ATS

Against the spread (ATS), I was happy to pick correctly SK -3.5 over montreal in the 112th Grey Cup.

I was 2-3 in the playoffs: 1-1 road underdogs in the 1st round and 0-1 home underdog and 0-1 home overdog in the conference championships. Including regular season and playoff matches, I finished 47-37 in 2025 = 9-9 home underdogs + 21-14 road underdogs + 10-8 home overdogs + 7-6 road overdogs.

I picked SASquatchEWAN because Godiva toy boy  Archibald points out that western teams are now 290-194-4 or 59.8% straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2025 including Grey Cups and other playoff games. The west was 27-15 straight-up this year and 26-16 ATS including Winterpeg's loss to MONTREAL in the eastern semi-final and the Grey Cup. SASquatchEWAN was 8-1 v. the east.

After 2024, I was starting to accept that the years of western dominance are over. In 2024, east bested west 23-16-2 after winning in 2023 as well. The east won 3 straight Grey Cups from 2022 through 2024. But, the west has now won 12 of the past 19 Grey Cups. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 11-5 ATS picking the past 16 Grey Cups, although I admit to losing the past 3 before this year. 

I am 51% over 15 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners ATS from 2009 on. (I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2025. 2023 was the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. 2023 was my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. 

Arch is too busy with his new hobby to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks are just for fun now. 

Sorry, loyal Godivans. I have been so caught up helping Godiva toy boy and permanent fiance Arch with his substacking that I still haven't had time to update my CFL picking record for the entire 2024 season. 

2025 Major League Baseball Inter-league Recap

In the 2025 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB's) inter-league rivalry, American League (AL) teams bested their National League (NL) rivals 373 wins to 362 (50.75%) after including the NL winning the World Series + All-Star match. 

The AL East led the way with a 55.5% winning record. The AL champion Blue Jays led the way with a 60% record against the NL even after dropping 4 of 7 to Los Dodgers in the World Series. No AL East squad had a losing inter-league record. The AL West finished at 51%. The AL Central's 46% record against the NL held the AL back. I will predict a Blue Jay win in the World Series based on the AL's superior record this year. I was 2 outs away from being right.  

After 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017, the NL won the inter-league contest for 5 of 7 seasons starting with 2018 through 2024.

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements shrank over the years thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started with AL squads before crossing over to manage NL teams. 

The AL's remaining claim to superiority is winning 10 of the past 12 All-Star contests, 22 of the last 27 to reach a decision and 28 of 36.

Bettors at polymarket.com gave the Toronto Blue Jays only a 32% chance of winning the World Series before the series started. I was one of the happy few picking Toronto over Los Dodgers. After decades of AL superiority in the World Series, the NL has won 5 of the last 7 with Los Dodgers winning 3 of the last 5. Over the last 2 decades from 2006-2025, the NL is ahead 12-8. From 1983 through 2005, the AL won 15 of 22 World Series championships. 

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. For the vast majority, it's not possible to earn a long-term profit gambling.

NFL Picks ATS: 2024-5 Recap

Gratified to correctly pick against the spread (ATS) in Super Bowl LIX:

PHILLY +1 over KC swifties 

Professor Steven Levitt argued that the Super Bowl (SB) underdog is the single best bet in sports. We won't know if he's right for another CMXLI years.

I finished 8-4-1 ATS in playoffs = 5-1 wild card round + 2-1-1 divisional round + 0-2 conference champs + 1-0 SB = 1-3-1 road underdogs, 3-0 home underdogs and 3-1 home overdogs. 

I kept track of the all-underdogs record for the entire National Football League (NFL) 2024-5 season including playoffs. Underdogs finished 121-147-4 against the spread (ATS) or 45% = 75-90-2 road underdogs and 46-57-2 homie doggies. As a result, I finished dead last in the one ATS season-long pool I swim in.  

Over many decades, NFL home underdogs were the best bet in sports -- but not this year or last. Home underdogs went 9-21 ATS over weeks 5-9. Home underdogs went 47-51-5 in 2023-2024 including playoffs. 

 A simple all-underdogs strategy has recorded 25 winning NFL regular seasons over the past 33 against the spread (ATS), a track record significant to statheads (to borrow one of toy boy Archibald's catch-phrases). 

Underdogs lost the NFL regular season ATS for the 2nd consecutive year. If anyone knows when is the last time that happened, I would be glad to know. And, has there ever been a worse underdog ATS winning % than 45% this year?

Have bettors finally twigged to the fact that they overestimated overdog favorites for years through 2022-23? It's possible. I expect underdogs to win a bit more than 1/3 of all matches straight-up and a bit more than 1/6 of all matches on points. Over the past two years, underdogs have won a bit less than 1/6 of all matches on points and bit less than 1/3  of all matches straight-up. Are the unusual results of the past 2 years just a short-term random walk around the long-term average? Or has the underdog-tilt identified by Steven Levitt vanished? We will need a few more seasons to reach a conclusion. In the meantime, I will stick with regular-season underdogs in 2025. I will not abandon my all-underdogs regular season strategy just because of two consecutive bad years.

I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS is not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicity built into odds offered by gambling houses. 

Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for customers, but not workers.

CFL Picks 2024

I was wrong picking WINterpeg -10.5 over toronto against the spread (ATS) in Grey Cup CXI. 

The east has now won the past 3 Grey Cups after the west won 6 of the previous 8 and 11 of the previous 15. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 10-5 ATS picking the past 15 Grey Cups, although I admit to losing the past 3. 

Sorry, I have been so caught up helping Godiva toy boy and permanent fiance Arch with his substacking that I haven't had time to update my CFL picking record for the entire season.   

After 10 weeks, I was 22-17-1 = 8-2 home underdogs, 10-7-1 road underdogs, 3-3 home overdogs, and 1-5 road overdogs. In the play-offs, I finished 1-4 = 1-1 home overdogs and 0-2 road underdogs and 0-1 Grey Cup.

I am 51% over 15 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners against the spread (ATS) from 2009 on. (Recall that the CFL cancelled their 2020 season, so there have been only 15 seasons from 2009 through 2024.) I have had 5 losing CFL years out of 15. I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2023. 2023 was the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. 

Last year 2023 was my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. 

Godiva toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald points out that western teams are 263-179-4 or almost 60% straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2024. But, in 2024 east best west 22-16-2 after winning in 2023 as well. 

I am starting to accept that the years of western dominance are over. 

Arch is too busy with his new hobby to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks this year were just for fun. 

Nate Silver is the Bill James of political analysts

 "Just as James did for baseball, Silver taught us how to look at presidential campaigns analytically."

from

https://economystupid.substack.com/

No surprise. Nate Silver wrote for and owned a share of Baseball Prospectus before he turned his talents to analyzing elections.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/  

MLB inter-league 2024 Recap: NL rules

In the 2024 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB's) inter-league rivalry, National League (NL) teams defeated their American League (AL) rivals 373 wins to 323 (53.6%-46.4%) after including the World Series (WS) and All-Star matches. 

2024 was the NL's 5th best year in 27 years of regular season inter-league play starting in 1997. 

The NL defeated even the once-dominant AL East 124-111 (52.8%). AL East teams had won 56.6% of inter-league games from 2020 through 2023. 

The AL had won 16 of the previous 20 inter-league seasons with All-Star and World Series matches included in the counts. After 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017, the NL has now won the inter-league contest for 5 of 7 seasons starting with 2018.

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements shrank over the years thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started with AL squads before crossing over to manage NL teams. 

The AL's only remaining claim to superiority is winning 10 of the past 11 All-Star contests, 22 of the last 26 to reach a decision and 28 of 35.

The NL representative Dodgers were rightly favoured to take the World Series.   

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. For the vast majority, it's not possible to earn a long-term profit gambling.

Bye, Bye Belicheat

Belicheat was Don Shula's affectionate nickname for former New England Patriots’ Coach Bill Belichick, who was fired 15 wins short of Shula’s National Football League (NFL) record for career regular season wins. Of course, if we include playoff victories, Belicheat is much closer to Shula. 

NFL Picks ATS: 2023-4 Wrap-up

Thanks Muchas gracias to Vivek Ramaswamy for his Super Bowl pick: KC +1.5 over san fran.

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1751740881751724329

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/31/super-bowl-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-conspiracy-theories/a3980d7e-c08c-11ee-a4c6-8f5c350e9316_story.html

My Super Bowl pick was also based on the persuasive case from Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame that NFL bettors would do better if they realized that underdogs consistently best overdogs ATS over long periods and that the Super Bowl underdog is the best bet of the year. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html 

During the 2023 regular season, underdogs were 127-137-8 or 48% against the spread (ATS) = 82-86-3 road underdogs + 45-51-5 home underdogs (normally the best bet in sports over many years). Overdogs won the regular season for only the 7th time in the past 32 years.

Based on the historical record, I will not abandon my all-underdogs strategy after one bad year.

Toy boy Archibald has retired his NFL ATS pool due to volunteer work taking up all his time even to the point of neglecting me. With Arch barely in my life, (and even more barely barely, if you know what I mean, nudge nudge wink wink) I joined another pool and picked all underdogs all year long. A simple all-underdogs strategy recorded 25 winning regular seasons over the past 32, a track record significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's catch-phrases). I finished 3rd out of 65 players in the pool in 2022. This year I finished tied for 36th out of 57. However, I was pleased to finish 1st in week 14.

I am not aware of any evidence showing most playoff matches to be different in the regular season. Our pool continues during the playoffs and I stuck with all underdogs during the wild card round going 4-2 = 2-0 home underdogs + 2-2 road underdogs. 

I never pick favourites except for the No. 1 seeds in the divisional round. Teams with a bye going into the playoffs win about 3/4 of matches straight-up. I doubt that the point spreads reflect the full advantage that should be accorded No. 1 seeds, but I have no evidence to substantiate my gut feeling. I went 1-1 ATS this year with home overdogs No. 1 seeds in the 1/4 final divisional round. They were 2-0 straight-up. Road underdogs went 1-1. 

In the conference championship semi-final round, I went 2-0 with my underdog picks. So, for once, a winning playoff record ATS this year = 9-4 = 2-0 home underdogs + 5-3 road underdogs + 1-1 home overdogs + 1-0 Super Bowl.

CFL Picks 2023 ATS Recap

I mistakenly picked overdog WINterPEG -8.5 over montreal against the spread (ATS) in the Grey Cup. A fitting end to a Canadian Football League (CFL) 2023 season including playoffs over which I finished 35-50-1 against the spread (ATS) = 16-24 road underdogs, 4-5-1 road overdogs, 5-6 home overdogs and 10-15 home underdogs -- my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. A simple all-overdogs strategy was 48-37-1 this year. 

Godiva toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald points out that western teams are 247-156-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2023 and 206-194-5 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. But, in 2023, the east was ahead 18-13-1 ATS and 19-13 straight-up in inter-conference matches. 

Are the years of western dominance over? Or was eastern superiority in 2023 a random aberration without any significant meaning?

The west has still won 6 of the last 10 Grey Cups and 11 of the past 17. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 10-4 ATS picking the past 14 Grey Cups. 

I am 51% over 13 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners against the spread (ATS) from 2009 on. (Recall that the  CFL cancelled their 2020 season, so there have been only 14 seasons from 2009 through 2023.) I have had 5 losing CFL years out of 14. I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2023. 2023 is the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. 

Luckily, Arch was too busy with volunteer tasks to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks were just for fun with not much fun had in a losing year for yours truly. 

MLB Inter-League: 2023 Recap

National League (NL) teams bested American League (AL) teams 364 wins to 332 (52.3% to 47.7%) in the 2023 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB) inter-league rivalry including the MLB's 93rd All-Star match + the World Series (WS).

I picked Texas in the WS.I was planning to pick the NL team, but couldn't bring myself to back sixth-seeded Arizona.  

The AL has won 16 of the last 20 inter-league seasons with All-Star and World Series matches included in the counts. The NL won the inter-league contest for 3 consecutive years from 2018 through 2020 after 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017. The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements has shrunk and perhaps disappeared completely thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started in AL organizations and then crossed over to manage NL teams. 

Prior to 2023, the AL had won 9 all-star contests in a row, 21 of 24 to reach a decision and 27 of 33. 

AL East teams defeated NL opponents 126-104 (54.8%) in 2023 after 58% success in 2020 through 2022. 

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. 

NFL Picks ATS: 2022-3 Recap

I successfully picked underdog kc +1 over philly in Super Bowl LVII.  

I finished 7-6 against the spread (ATS) with my 2023 playoff picks: 4-4 road underdogs, 1-1 home underdogs, 1-1 home overdogs and 1-0 in the Super Bowl.

The divisional round is the only time I ever pick overdog favourites based on TMQ Gregg Easterbrook's insight that the top seeds coming off a bye win 3/4 of their divisional round games straight-up. My guess is that the point spreads may not completely capture top seed dominance.  

For the 2022-3 National Football League (NFL) regular season, underdogs finished 140-121-9 or 53.5%  ATS.  

55-44-4 home underdogs -- historically the best bet in sports, but not good enough over the long run to make a profit large enough to overcome the commission charged by gambling houses. 

85-77-5 road underdogs. 

Toy boy Archibald has retired his NFL ATS pool due to volunteer work taking up all his time even to the point of neglecting me. 

With Arch barely in my life, (and even more barely barely, if you know what I mean, nudge nudge wink wink) I joined another pool and picked all underdogs all year long. A simple all-underdogs strategy has now recorded 25 winning regular seasons over the past 31, a track record  significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's catch-phrases). I finished 3rd out of 65 players in the pool.

This strategy is based on the persuasive case from Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame that NFL bettors would do better if they realized that underdogs consistently best overdogs ATS and that the Super Bowl underdog is the best bet of the year. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html

MLB Inter-league 2022: AL Rules

I correctly predicted that the Houston Cheatros would defeat the Philly Phillies in the 2022 World Series (WS).

American League (AL) teams defeated National League (NL) teams 157 -150 (51.1% to 48.9%) in the 2022 instalment of the Major League Baseball (MLB) inter-league rivalry including All-Star and WS matches. The AL has won 9 all-star contests in a row, 21 of the last 24 to reach a decision and 27 of the last 33.  

The NL won the inter-league season-series 3 consecutive years from 2018 through 2020 after 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017. AL has now won 16 of the last 19 seasons. 

NL teams have at least done better in 2022 than their 44.625% record in 2021 (including World Series and All-Star matches). Last year's AL victory depended on the mighty mighty AL East's inter-league mastery -- 64% in 2021. But, the AL East is down to a 56% success rate in 2022. 

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements has shrunk thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-dress executives who started in AL organizations and have crossed over to manage NL teams. 

CFL 2022 Recap: Picks ATS

I was wrong picking against the spread (ATS) WINterPEG -5.5 over TORONTO. However, I am still proud, albeit insignificant statistically, to be 10-3 ATS picking the past 13 Grey Cups.   

For the 2022 season including playoffs, I finished 39-46-1 ATS: 23-13 with my road underdog picks, 3-16-1 home underdogs, 4-10 road overdogs and 9-7 home overdogs. 2022 was only my 4th losing CFL year ATS out of 13. Road teams ruled 2022 at 50-35-1 ATS. 

I am 52% over 13 years picking CFL winners ATS from 2009 on. (Recall that the Canadian Football League [CFL] cancelled their 2020 season, so there have been only 13 seasons from 2009 through 2022.) I have had only 4 losing CFL years out of 13. I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. However, I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53% from 2009-2022. 2014 was the only year during this period when CFL underdogs had a losing year ATS.

Godiva toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald points out that western teams are 234-137-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2022 and 193-176-4 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. In 2022, the west was 20-12 straight-up, but 14-18 ATS. The west has won 6 of the last 9 Grey Cups and 11 of the past 17.

Arch's buddy Taxi Steve brought to my attention the fact that Toronto has won its last 7 Grey Cup appearances, has not lost the CFL final since 1987 and boasts a 25-13 Grey Cup record (including all Toronto-based teams). 2022 was Winterpeg's 30th Grey Cup appearance; 12 victories and 18 losses.

Arch was too busy this year to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks were just for fun, which was lucky for me. 

Aaron Rodgers: "Yeah, I'm immunized"

 against play-off success

NFL Picks 2021-2 ATS

In toy boy Archibald's just-for-fun National Football League (NFL) pool against the spread (ATS), I correctly picked cinci +4 over LA RAMS in Super Bowl LVI. 

A losing playoff season for me at 5-8 after finishing the regular season at 142-129-1 or 52% ATS : 85-78 road underdogs, 54-49-1 home underdogs, 1-1 home overdogs and 2-1 road overdogs. Including playoffs, I finished 147-137-1 = 51.75%.  

I follow a strategy based on the persuasive case from Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame that NFL bettors would do better if they realized that underdogs consistently best overdogs ATS and that the Super Bowl underdog is the best bet of the year. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html

Despite my 5-6 record picking playoff underdogs this year, I still see no evidence that most play-off matches including the Super Bowl differ from regular season matches. If bettors maintain their overdog bias, over the next 1000 years, we should see just over 1/3 of all Super Bowls won outright by underdogs and just over 1/6 won by underdogs ATS thanks to the points. Stick with underdogs.

One exception may be top-seeded home overdogs after a 1st round bye. These teams win almost 3/4 of their matches outright straight-up  vs. about 2/3 straight-up victories for regular season overdogs. Despite going 0-2 this year picking the two top seeds in the 1/4 final divisional round, I still doubt that the point spreads account correctly for this probable dominance over time by the top-seeded teams in division round matches. 

I finished the 2021-22 regular season tied for 24th out of  55 in Arch's pool after finishing the 2019 and 2020 regular seasons both years at 53.7% and 2nd (3-way tie for 2nd out of 60 players in 2020).

The simple all-underdogs strategy recorded a 24th winning regular season over the past 30, a track record that is significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's arch catch-phrases).

CFL 2021 Recap: Picks ATS

I play every year in my Canadian toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald's non-profit Canadian Football League (CFL) pool against the spread (ATS). 

In the 2021 Grey Cup, I correctly selected winterpeg -3.5 over HAMmerville. I am now 10-2 ATS picking the past 12 Grey Cups. 

Including both play-off and regular season matches, I was 35-33 in 2021 with my ATS picks = 8-8 home underdogs, 15-10 road underdogs, 5-10 home overdogs and 7-5 road overdogs. 

I am 52% over 12 years picking CFL winners ATS from 2009 on. I have had only 3 losing CFL years out of 12. However, I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53% from 2009. 2014 was the only year during this period when CFL underdogs had a losing year ATS.

For 2021,  all-underdogs were 38-30 ATS and an all-roadies strategy was 40-28.

I did not fancy picking against the home underdog Ticats in the Grey Cup. However, Arch points out that western teams are 214-125-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2021 and 179-158-4 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. In 2021 including the Grey Cup result, west over east was 14-11 straight-up and 13-12 ATS. The west has won 6 of the last 8 Grey Cups and 11 of the past 16.