Tuesday, September 7, 2010

NFL 2010 Regular Season Recap

My Record

After 49-62-1 the final 7 weeks, I fell to 50.6% winners for the season or 126-123-7. I ran just behind a simple all-underdog strategy going 5-6 with "value overdog" picks. I did not have a winning week after week 10. All in all, rather a disappointing season after a promising start.

I have been participating in a season-long NFL pool picking winners against the point spread since 2001 when my then toy boy Reginald persuaded me that there was no better way for an English lass like me to immerse myself in North American culture. Over the past 10 years, I racked up a 52% winning record beating the pants off long-gone Reginald and most other foolish men who analyze each and every game in mind-numbing detail.

My Approach

It's no accident that my long-term record is right on the money with the 52% historical winning record for a simple all-underdog approach. I pick mostly underdogs leavened by a small selection of what I call "value overdogs". Most years, my approach will place you in the middle of the pack. But, statistical analysis indicates that 1 out of every 6 years on average, I will pick more than 55% of all games correctly (e.g., 141-115 or better). 55% or better should be enough to give you a chance to win a pool prize. If you are a contender once every 6 years, you will be doing well.