Thursday, June 9, 2022

CFL 2022 Recap: Picks ATS

I was wrong picking against the spread (ATS) WINterPEG -5.5 over TORONTO. However, I am still proud, albeit insignificant statistically, to be 10-3 ATS picking the past 13 Grey Cups.   

For the 2022 season including playoffs, I finished 39-46-1 ATS: 23-13 with my road underdog picks, 3-16-1 home underdogs, 4-10 road overdogs and 9-7 home overdogs. 2022 was only my 4th losing CFL year ATS out of 13. Road teams ruled 2022 at 50-35-1 ATS. 

I am 52% over 13 years picking CFL winners ATS from 2009 on. (Recall that the Canadian Football League [CFL] cancelled their 2020 season, so there have been only 13 seasons from 2009 through 2022.) I have had only 4 losing CFL years out of 13. I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. However, I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53% from 2009-2022. 2014 was the only year during this period when CFL underdogs had a losing year ATS.

Godiva toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald points out that western teams are 234-137-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2022 and 193-176-4 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. In 2022, the west was 20-12 straight-up, but 14-18 ATS. The west has won 6 of the last 9 Grey Cups and 11 of the past 17.

Arch's buddy Taxi Steve brought to my attention the fact that Toronto has won its last 7 Grey Cup appearances, has not lost the CFL final since 1987 and boasts a 25-13 Grey Cup record (including all Toronto-based teams). 2022 was Winterpeg's 30th Grey Cup appearance; 12 victories and 18 losses.

Arch was too busy this year to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks were just for fun, which was lucky for me