NFL Wild Card Weekend

If your friendly, non-profit pool extends through the playoffs, take all the home underdogs this week.

I admit to flying blind with playoff picks. The historical data show that favourites won 52% of all playoff games against the point spread from 1992 through last season, well above the 48% winning rate for overdogs in all regular season games since 1992. But, 176 playoff games since 1992 is too small a sample to draw conclusions. Plus, the overdog playoff tendency over the entire period is actually based on 60% dominance from 1992 through the 1999 Super Bowl. Underdogs plus the points have prevailed in 54% of playoff games in this decade.

I don't have any data for the relatively rare occurrences of home underdogs in the playoffs. So, I'm just relying on home underdogs' winning percentage in past regular seasons (but not this one) to recommend all home dogs this weekend.

Pick		+/-	Against
ARIZONA		+2.5	Atlanta
SAN D		+1.5	Indy
MIAMI		+3	Baltimore
MINNIE		+3	Philly

Week 17 results:

Picks	Win	Lose	Tie
All	7	8	1
Home Dogs	3	1
Road Dogs	4	7	1
Best Bets	2	1
Readers' Choice	HOU+0.5

2008 Regular Season:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie	%
All	125	123	8	50.4%
Home Faves	21	24	1	47%
Home Dogs	35	38	2	48%
Road Dogs	67	60	5	53%
Road Faves	2	1		67%
Best Bets	27	21	3	56%
Readers' Choice	8	8	1	50%

NFL Comments:

I was pleased to finish above 50% after opening the season at 39% for the first 4 weeks. But, I can't claim to have added any value this year. A simple all-underdog strategy finished at 51.2% and a simple all-road approach did even better at 52.7%.

Home underdogs finished below 50% this year, while road dogs' 53% winning rate with the points was above the historical norm. But, otherwise it was a very average regular season. Overdogs won just over 2 of every 3 games outright and just under 1 out of every 5 games turned on points.

My problem this past year was that my system for identifying "value" overdogs failed me for the second consecutive year after good results from 2001 through 2006. Nevertheless, I'm going to stick with my system next year, but I definitely plan on keeping my day job.

NBA Underdogs

25-18-1 or 58% against the spread for underdogs of 12.5 points or more. So far, Stanford undergrad whiz kid Gibbs (see 1 November post) is correct with his analysis showing that we can expect to see heavy NBA underdogs finish above 50% by a statistically significant margin over a long period of at least one full season. I will continue tracking this trend on behalf of players in non-profit NBA pools.

Week 17 NFL Picks

I'm sticking with an all-underdogs approach for the third week in a row to close out the season.

Week 16 Results:

10 wins and 6 losses
Best bets: 2-1
Readers' choice: Pitt over TENN went down to defeat.

For the first time all year, I'm above 50%. At +3 for the season so far, I've got a fighting chance to salvage some pride by finishing above 50% for the 2008 regular season.

I will be back next week with a full analysis of the 2008 regular season for NFL pool players.

Kudos to official Godiva toy boy Archibald, who is tied for 2nd one behind the leader in his own 70-person office pool. Maybe I should hand this blog to Archibald.

NFL Week 15 + NBA Update

Week 15 NFL Picks:

Dr. Ronnie (aka Lady Godiva) recommends going with all underdogs this week.

Week 14 NFL results:

Picks		Wins	Losses
All		9	7
Home Dogs		3
Road Dogs		3	6
Road Faves	3	1
Best Bets	2	1
Readers' Choice	Miami +1.5

Season so far:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie	%
All	99	105	4	49%
Home Faves	21	24	1	47%
Home Dogs	24	33	1	42%
Road Dogs	52	47	2	52%
Road Faves	2	1		67%
Best Bets	22	19	2	53%
Readers' Choice	6	7	1	46%

Week 14 NFL Comments:

6-6 against the point spread last week with my base package of underdog picks and 3-1 with my "value" overdogs leaving me still -6 with just 3 weeks to get back to 50% for the year.

NBA Underdogs

12 wins, 10 losses and 1 tie for a 54% winning percentage against the spread so far for underdogs of 12.5 points or more. According to Stanford undergrad whiz kid Gibbs (see 1 November post), we can expect to see heavy NBA underdogs finish above 50% by a statistically significant margin over a long period of at least one full season. I will keep track this year on behalf of players in non-profit NBA pools.

NFL Reading

Official Godiva toy boy Archibald recommends the following articles for NFL fans:

http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/548657

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/12/15/081215fa_fact_gladwell

Archibald also warns that famous author Malcolm Gladwell is wrong when he says that it is not possible to predict which college quarterbacks will succeed in the NFL. Stathead David Lewin summarizes his analysis in:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3350135

Happy Thanksgiving

NFL Week 13 Picks

My advice this week for players in non-profit NFL pools -- take all the underdogs.

I will be back next week with picks for week 14 and updated results for the season so far.

NBA Underdog Update

8 wins and 3 losses so far for underdogs of 12.5 points or more. According to Stanford undergrad whiz kid Gibbs (see 1 November post), we can expect to see heavy NBA underdogs finish above 50% by a statistically significant margin over a long period of at least one full season. I will keep track this year on behalf of players in non-profit NBA pools.

Thanksgiving Films

The Myth of Fingerprints is my favourite. Official Lady Godiva toy boy Archibald fancies cheesy 1980s "comedy" Love At Stake. Archibald will mail at his expense a bound copy of his Ph.D. thesis to anyone who can tell him who played the part of the turkey in this turkey.

NFL Week 10 Picks

Pick	+/-	Against
Denver	+3	CLEVELAND
DETROIT	+6.5	Jacksonville
CHICAGO	+3	Tennessee
NEW E	-3.5	Buffalo
New O	+1	Atlanta
St. Louis	+8	NY JETS
Seattle	+8.5	MIAMI
G Bay	+2.5	MINNIE
Carolina	-9	OAKLAND
K City	+15	SAN DIEGO
Indy	+3.5	PITTSBURGH
NY Giants	+3	PHILLY
HOUSTON	+1	Baltimore
ARIZONA	-9.5	San Fran

Week 9 results:

Picks	Wins	Losses
All	8	6
Home Faves	1	2
Home Dogs	2	3
Road Dogs	5	1
Best Bets	3
Readers' Choice	NY G -9

Season so far:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie	%
All	59	67	4	47%
Home Faves	15	19	1	44%
Home Dogs	17	19	1	47%
Road Dogs	26	28	2	48%
Road Faves	1	1		50%
Best Bets	14	13	2	52%
Readers' Choice	3	5	1	39%

NFL Comments

If I had backed all underdogs (or all overdogs) all year long, I'd be sitting right at 50%, instead of -8. My "value overdog" picks have been dismal this year and last. Nevertheless, I'm sticking to my system and picking 3 more value overdogs this week hoping to turn the tide over the last half of the year.

My sympathies to the Raider Nation. Official Godiva toy boy Archibald's father is losing his marbles, so I know how painful it must be for Raider fans to live through owner Al Davis' King Lear years.

NFL Playoff Team Predictions

With the first half in the books, here are my predictions for who will be in the January playoffs:

AFC
Top 2 seeds	Tennessee Pittsburgh
Other division winners	NY Jets San Diego
Wild cards	New England Baltimore

NFC
Top 2 seeds	NY Giants Arizona
Other divisional winners	Chicago Carolina
Wild cards	Philadelphia Tampa Bay

NBA Underdogs

1 win and 2 losses so far for underdogs of 12.5 points or more.

NBA Pool Advice

Just for fun (and it's always about fun, never money, since you can't make money consistently picking winners against the point spread), for NBA pool participants I'm recommending a strategy suggested in a Stanford undergraduate essay.

http://siepr.stanford.edu/siepr_news/JGibbs_NBA_Analysis.pdf

Mr. Gibbs thinks he has discovered evidence that NBA players are consorting with gamblers. I'm not convinced. I think there are other explanations for the distribution of point differentials that he makes such a big deal about. But, whatever the explanation, his data analysis does suggest that if you always take underdogs by 12.5 points or more when playing in a friendly, non-profit office pool picking NBA winners against the point spread, you will end up a statistically significant touch above 50% on your "heavy underdog" picks over the course of an entire season.

So, today I recommend:

LA Clippers +13.5 over UTAH
Oke City +14 over HOUSTON

I will keep track of how "heavy" underdogs do during this coming regular season and we'll see at the end whether the pattern identified by Mr. Gibbs is still holding up.

NFL Week 9 Picks + World Series Post-Mortem

Pick	+/-	Against
Houston	+4.5	MINNIE
CINCI	+7.5	Jaxville
KC	+8.5	T Bay
Baltimore	+1.5	CLEVE
BUFFALO	-5.5	NY Jets
ST. LOUIS	+3	Arizona
Detroit	+13	CHICAGO
TENN	-5.5	G Bay
Miami	+3	DENVER
OAKLAND	+3	Atlanta
NY G	-9	Dallas
SEATTLE	+6.5	Philly
New E	+5.5	INDY
Pitts	+2	WASH

Week 8 results:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie
All	5	8	1
Home Faves		2
Home Dogs	2	1
Road Dogs	3	5	1
Best Bets	1	2
Readers' Choice	Pittsburgh -2.5

Season so far:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie	%
All	51	61	4	46%
Home Faves	14	17	1	45%
Home Dogs	15	16	1	48%
Road Dogs	21	27	2	44%
Road Faves	1	1		50%
Best Bets	11	13	2	46%
Readers' Choice	2	5	1	31%

Comments:

5-6-1 against the spread with my base package of underdog picks in week 8 and 0-2 with overdogs. For the past year and a half, I've lost my gift for identifying overdog winners against the spread and have trailed the winning percentage of a plain-vanilla all-underdogs strategy over a period when the all-underdogs approach has failed to record its usual premium performance based on the historical trend. Here's hoping my system comes right for underdogs on the whole and for my 3 "value" overdogs in week 9.

World Series:

The Phillies overcame the National League (NL) talent deficit to take the World Series decisively 4 games to 1. It's good for spectator interest in the World Series for the NL to win every now and then. And indeed, the NL has won 2 of the past 3 World Series and 4 of the past 8.

Nevertheless, the full record of recent inter-league play offers conclusive proof of American League (AL) superiority. The AL has won 7 of the past 11 World Series and 10 of the past 16. Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won the last 11 all-star games to reach a decision and 17 of the last 20. Plus the AL sports a 57% record against National League (NL) opponents in over 1,000 regular season inter-league contests from 2005 through this season.

After factoring in the World Series, an all-AL strategy for the regular season, All-Star game and World Series still generated a net gain of +30.75 pool points over 258 inter-league contests in a non-profit 2008 baseball pool with points for each game based on the posted odds. Philadelphia's victory in a best 4-of-7 series came against odds almost as long and tall as Lady G herself. Until the NL gets back to even over a full season of regular season contests, continue picking the AL in your non-profit baseball pools.

NFL Week 8 and World Series Picks

Pick	+/-	Against
Oakland	+7	BALT
NEW O	+3	San D
NY JETS	-12.5	kc
MIAMI	+1.5	Buffalo
T Bay	+3.5	DALLAS
Atlanta	+8.5	PHILLY
St. Louis	+7	NEW E
Arizona	+4.5	CAROLINA
DETROIT	+7.5	Washton
Cleveland	+6.5	JAXVILLE
PITTS	-2.5	NY Giants
Seattle	+4.5	SAN FRAN
Cinci	+10	HOUSTON
Indy	+4	TENN

Week 7 results:

Picks	Wins	Losses
All	9	5
Home Faves	1
Home Dogs	3	1
Road Dogs	4	4
Road Faves	1
Best Bets	4
Readers' Choice	Cleveland +7

Season so far:

Picks	Wins	Losses	Tie	%
All	46	53	3	47%
Home Faves	14	15	1	48%
Home Dogs	13	15	1	47%
Road Dogs	18	22	1	45%
Road Faves	1	1		50%
Best Bets	10	11	2	48%
Readers' Choice	2	4	1	36%

Comments:

That's more like it. 7-5 against the point spread with my base package of underdog picks and 2-0 with my "value" overdogs.

Baseball World Series Pick:

Take Tampa +1.05 in game 1 and in all subsequent games both home and away if you're in a baseball pool that finishes with the World Series.

Taking the American League (AL) in inter-league contests has been the most reliable pick in all of sports over the past few years and the World Series is no different. The AL has won 7 of the past 10 World Series and 10 of the past 15.

Leaving aside the 11-inning tie in 2002, the AL has won the last 11 all-star games to reach a decision and 17 of the last 20.

There haven't been enough all-star and World Series games to rule out AL dominance as part of random variability. But, the record from over 1,000 inter-league regular season games over the past 4 years provides clear evidence that the AL has a clear majority of the best players in baseball. The AL sports a 57% record against National League (NL) opponents from 2005 through this season.

This year AL teams were especially dominating winning 62% of all inter-league games hosted in AL parks and 56% of all games when travelling to NL parks. AL dominance playing in NL parks is particularly impressive. NL home teams won 55% of contests hosting NL opponents, but only 44% against AL visitors.

Evidence from this season indicates that oddsmakers may be underestimating AL dominance, particularly when AL teams visit NL parks. Playing in a non-profit baseball pool similar to toy boy Archibald's office pool with points awarded based on the posted odds, you would have earned a net gain of 24.3 points this year by backing all AL teams visiting NL opponents and 8.8 points picking all AL teams hosting NL visitors.

Take Tampa and stick to Tampa in all games if you are playing in a non-profit baseball pool that includes picking World Series games. Tampa's not a glamour team with any history, so the bettors and oddsmakers may underestimate just how much better Tampa is than Philadelphia. Sure, there's a small chance of the Phillies getting enough breaks to win a 7-game series. But, the odds are stacked in Tampa's favour. The talent imbalance between leagues is so great that even mediocre AL teams like Toronto or Cleveland could probably beat the NL champion Phillies more often than not.

Whatever happens, Tampa's management team can take a well-deserved bow for building a champion the right way through draft picks. I live in Canada where we're green with envy at Tampa's success while our Toronto Blue Jays go nowhere under the misrule of owner Ted (Only Know How to Run a Monopoly and Can't Handle Competition) Rogers and general mismanager JP (Legend in My Own Mind) Ricciardi.