Wednesday, December 10, 2008

NFL Week 15 + NBA Update

Week 15 NFL Picks:

Dr. Ronnie (aka Lady Godiva) recommends going with all underdogs this week.

Week 14 NFL results:

Picks

Wins

Losses

All

9

7

Home Dogs

3

Road Dogs

3

6

Road Faves

3

1

Best Bets

2

1

Readers' Choice

Miami +1.5

Season so far:

Picks

Wins

Losses

Tie

%

All

99

105

4

49%

Home Faves

21

24

1

47%

Home Dogs

24

33

1

42%

Road Dogs

52

47

2

52%

Road Faves

2

1

67%

Best Bets

22

19

2

53%

Readers' Choice

6

7

1

46%

Week 14 NFL Comments:

6-6 against the point spread last week with my base package of underdog picks and 3-1 with my "value" overdogs leaving me still -6 with just 3 weeks to get back to 50% for the year.

NBA Underdogs

12 wins, 10 losses and 1 tie for a 54% winning percentage against the spread so far for underdogs of 12.5 points or more. According to Stanford undergrad whiz kid Gibbs (see 1 November post), we can expect to see heavy NBA underdogs finish above 50% by a statistically significant margin over a long period of at least one full season. I will keep track this year on behalf of players in non-profit NBA pools.

NFL Reading

Official Godiva toy boy Archibald recommends the following articles for NFL fans:

http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/548657

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/12/15/081215fa_fact_gladwell

Archibald also warns that famous author Malcolm Gladwell is wrong when he says that it is not possible to predict which college quarterbacks will succeed in the NFL. Stathead David Lewin summarizes his analysis in:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3350135

1 comment:

Mberenis said...

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