Super Bowl XLIII Pick

If your non-profit NFL pool extends through the playoffs, take Pittsburgh Steelers -7 on Super Sunday.

Through 42 Super Bowls to date, favourites have overcome the points half the time in 21 games. 2 matches have ended tied on points. 5 times the overdog has won the score line, but lost the bet on points. And, the underdog has won 14 previous Super Bowls outright.

To sum up, overdogs have won 2 out of every 3 Super Bowls even up. So far, only 7 of 42 Super Bowls have turned on points, which is a touch below the 1 in 5 average for regular season games.

So, I'm going with the Steelers –7 based on evidence (albeit not significant in the statistical sense) that fewer Super Bowls and playoff games in general turn on points than is the case for regular season games. Oddsmakers and their foolish customers may not fully account for the fact that winning teams go all out to put away opponents in elimination games.

But, check out Freakonomics author Professor Steven Levitt's case for picking the Super Bowl underdog every year because Super Sunday bettors are less sophisticated than regular season punters and overvalue overdogs even more than regular season bettors.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/05sbgamble_92_94_.html

Playoff results so far:

Picks	Win	Lose
All	5	5
Home Faves	2	3
Home Dogs	3	2
Readers' Choice	2	1
Last Week	PITT -5

 

I don't take game analysis seriously, but will pass on former Godiva toy boy Reginald's argument that Steelers -7 against the Cardinals looks to be a bargain. By kickoff, the Eagles were favoured by 4 in Arizona. Before the conference championship games, would we have valued the Eagles and Steelers as roughly even? Reginald thinks not and is backing the Steelers with as much of his exotic dancer girlfriend's assets as he can lay his hands on. Also, since the NFL moved to a 16-game season, no team has won the Super Bowl with less than 10 wins in the regular season -- another sign pointing against 9-7 Arizona.

Archibald's NBA Projections

Having given space to Reginald, I must allow equal time to reigning Godiva toy boy Archibald. (Don't be jealous of Reginald, Archibald. You know you've got my heart, soul and, of most importance to you, my body, you handsome devil.) Archibald claims to have a statistical package for making NBA projections. Based on data to the halfway point of the season, expect the following:

Cleveland will defeat Lakers in the NBA Final.

Boston and Denver will lose at the Final Four stage.

Surprise teams making the playoffs: Indy and Toronto.

Biggest steal of 2008: Denver getting Chauncey Billups from Detroit in return for Allan Iverson. (Honourable mention: Bernard Madoff hedge fund.)

NFL Conference Champ Picks

If your non-profit NFL pool extends through the playoffs, take both home teams this weekend.

Over the past 38 seasons since 1970, favourites have won 2/3 of conference championship games straight up – right in line with overdogs' outright winning % in regular season games. Ordinarily, this would point me to both underdogs since 1 of 5 regular season games turn on points.

But, I'm going with the Steelers –5 based on evidence (albeit not significant in the statistical sense) that fewer games turn on points in the playoffs than regular season. Oddsmakers and their foolish customers may not fully account for the fact that winning teams go all out to put away opponents in elimination games. I also take comfort in the fact that the fifth point in a 5-point spread rarely comes into play. It is unusual for an NFL game to end with a 5-point gap. So, I treat Steelers -5 as Steelers -4.5 for practical purposes.

And, I'm taking Arizona +3 as the home underdog in the NFC championship. Archibald's buddy Michael (Moto) Gourleymann informs us that home underdogs are riding a 13-4 streak against the spread in playoff games. I don't take a sample size of 17 seriously, but I'm counting on home underdogs being as good a choice in the playoffs as they have been in most regular seasons -- although not this past season.

Playoff results so far:

Picks	Win	Lose
All	3	5
Home Faves ¼ finals	1	3
Home Dog Wild Cards	2	2
Readers' Choice	1	1
	PITT -6

As my regular readers know, I do not waste time analyzing team stats and other irrelevant data. But, for entertainment purposes, I will pass along these unsubstantiated factoids courtesy of former Godiva toy boy and long-suffering Jets fan Reginald:

• Baltimore was lucky to defeat Tennessee in a game when they were outgained 391-211. You can't count on winning the turnover battle every week.
• Steelers have now reached 7 of the past 15 AFC championship games -- a tremendous record of achievement. Before we get carried away, let's keep in mind that their AFC championship record under Coach Cowher was only 2-4.
• The underdog plus the points has now won 10 straight Eagles-Giants contests – a record streak for NFL head-to-head rivalries.
• The Eagles defeated the Cards 48-20 on Thanksgiving night by gaining 458 yards.
• Lady G was correct that home overdogs have won almost 3 of every 4 divisional ¼ final games straight up since 1990. But, that record is based on 82% home team dominance from 1990 through the January 2005 playoffs. From 2006 on, home teams have won only 7 of 16 divisional ¼ final games.
• This has been the year for unusual final scores. In the regular season, the Steelers and Chargers posted the first 11-10 final in NFL history. And, the Eagles-Giants playoff match ended with the first 23-11 score.
• From memory, Eagles vs. Cardinals must be the first conference championship game featuring two teams that failed to reach 1o wins in the regular season -- at least since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule and maybe even going back to the 14-game era.

NBA Underdogs

30-23-1 or 56% against the spread for underdogs of 12.5 points or more. The results so far are proving Stanford undergrad whiz kid Gibbs (see 1 November post) correct with his analysis showing that we can expect to see heavy NBA underdogs finish above 50% by a statistically significant margin over a full season. I will track this trend for the rest of the year for players in non-profit NBA pools. Tonight, I recommend taking my beloved Raptors +12.5 against the Celtics.

Dr. Archibald Not Licensed

Official Godiva toy boy Archibald directed me to the following article and suggested that I would be doing him a good turn -- since every good boy deserves favour -- by parading around in my birthday suit in order to extend his life.

http://www.tosports.ca/?p=2471

A small amount of research dashed Archibald's hopes.

http://urbanlegends.about.com/library/weekly/aa072600a.htm

Keep your day job, Archibald, and forget about applying to medical school. And, I will be doffing my duds only for my benefit, not yours, thank you very much.

NFL ¼ Final Weekend

If your friendly, non-profit pool extends through the playoffs, take all the home overdogs this week.

The match-ups look even on paper with the exception of Arizona @ Carolina. But, the extra week of rest augurs well for home cookin' this weekend. Favourites have won ¾ of 72 divisional round games over the past 18 seasons. Even if we expect 1 of every 5 games to turn on points (and ignore the hypothesis that fewer playoff games turn on points because winning teams go all out to pile up the score in elimination games), the godds of probability tilt to home overdogs.

Pick	+/-	Against
CAROLINA	-10	Arizona
TENNESSEE	-3	Baltimore
NY GIANTS	-4.5	Philly
PITTSBURGH	-6	San D

 

Wild Card results:

Picks	Win	Lose
All	2	2
Home Dogs	2	2
Readers' Choice	MINN +3 lost

 

NBA Underdogs

28-20-1 or 58% against the spread for underdogs of 12.5 points or more. The results so far are proving Stanford undergrad whiz kid Gibbs (see 1 November post) correct with his analysis showing that we can expect to see heavy NBA underdogs finish above 50% by a statistically significant margin over a long period of at least one full season. I will continue tracking this trend on behalf of players in non-profit NBA pools.