Monday, January 25, 2010
And, I have now lost 3 Super Bowls on the trot against the points.
At least, I ended up on the + side at 6-5 for the playoffs. Nothing great, but my first winning playoff season since 2002.
Underdogs vs. overdogs now even-up at 21-21-2 in 44 Super Bowls.
I will be less active with this blog until March madness aside from the occasional NBA pick. But, tune in for the NCAA tournament when I hope to repeat my feat of outpicking the Baracketer-in-Chief.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
If your friendly, non-profit pool extends through the playoffs, stick with the home overdogs in the conference championship games even though there is no strong tendency to go on in the historical data.
Favourites have won 65% of 78 conference championships since 1970 – actually a touch below the 2/3 outright winning rate for overdogs in the regular season. I recommend taking the favourites and ignoring the points. My unproved hypothesis is that fewer playoff games turn on points because winning teams go all out to pile up the score in elimination games.
Speaking of piling up the score, Minnesota went beyond the bounds of good taste throwing for a TD on 4th down leading 27-3 late in the game.
Indy covering the points is my choice for best bet this week. Sorry, former Godiva toy boy Reginald and still diehard Jet fan. Not this year for your beloved Jets. Too bad you loved the Jets and football more than you loved me.
Playoff Picks So Far:
3-1 with the home overdogs last week was easy-peasy. Favourites playing with the extra week of rest have won nearly ¾ of 80 divisional round games since 1990. The godds of probability definitely tilt to home overdogs in the divisional round.