In the non-profit, just-for-fun National Football League (NFL) pools organized by present and past Godiva toy boys Archibald and Reginald and the Randy Badger, Archibald's local gastropub, I finished tied for 16th out of 98, tied for 15th out of 59 and tied for 16th out of 32.
I take advantage of spread anomalies in these pools, which keeps me out of the shallow end most years. With the true point spreads, my picks for the 2017 regular season finished 116-132-8 = 67-80-5 road underdogs, 47-49-3 home underdogs and 2-3 home favourites.
I use a strategy based on research by Professor Steven Leavitt of Freakonomics fame indicating that oddsmakers recognize that bettors systematically overvalue overdog favourites. An all-underdog strategy recorded only the 6th losing regular season in the past 26 years.
Small consolation that I got my Super Bowl LII pick right with underdog PHILLY +4 over NE CHEATRIOTS. Professor Leavitt thinks the SB underdog is always the best bet in sports. So far, underdogs are XXVI-XXIV-II in the 1st LII SBs. Another XMXLVIII SBs and we will have statistically significant evidence.
Another reason to pick Philly in the SB was that National Football Conference (NFC) teams were XLI-XXIII against American FC teams during the regular season and XLII-XXIII including the SB.
How sweet it was to see "Friends of Trump" Kraft, Belicheat and Brady taste rare defeat.
I finished 5-6 for my 14th losing year out of the last 15 picking play-off matches ATS.
Thursday, September 7, 2017
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