In toy boy fiance Archibald's fun pool, I finished 2nd out of 62 players against the spread (ATS) even after incorrectly picking underdog san fran +1 over KC in Super Bowl (SB) LIV based on the persuasive case that the SB underdog is the best bet in sports made by Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame.
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html
So far, SB underdogs are XXVI-XXVI-II.
I finished the regular season 135-116-5 or 53.7%: 89-64-2 road underdogs, 44-48-3 home underdogs and 2-4 with my unsuccesful attempts to identify "value" home overdogs.
A simple all-underdog strategy has now racked up 22 winning regular seasons ATS over the past 28 from 1992 through 2019.
In the 2020 playoffs, I finished 4-6-1 = 0-1 SB, 2-3 road underdogs, 0-1 home underdogs and 2-1-1 picking all home overdogs in the 1/4 final round based on public policy expert and NFL hobbyist Gregg Easterbrook's TMQ advice that home teams have won 74% of all matches in the 1/4 final round.
Monday, September 2, 2019
Tuesday, June 11, 2019
CFL Picks ATS: 2019 Recap
In my Canadian toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald's non-profit Canadian Football League (CFL) pool against the spread (ATS) for the Grey Cup final, I correctly picked winterpeg +3 over HAMMERTOWN ATS.
The west has won 5 of the last 7 Grey Cups and 10 of the past 15. Western teams were 24-16 straight-up, but only 19-21 ATS vs. eastern teams in 2019.
Arch points out that western teams are 200-114-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2019 and 166-146-4 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches.
I finished 43-41-2 in Arch's 2019 ATS pool: 20-15-2 road underdogs, 10-10 home overdogs, 8-9 home underdogs and 5-7 road overdogs.
I am 52.3% over 11 years picking CFL winners ATS 2009 to 2019. I have had only 3 losing CFL years ATS out of 11. However, I am trailing behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.1% over 2009-2019. 2014 was the only year during this period when CFL underdogs had a losing year ATS.
The west has won 5 of the last 7 Grey Cups and 10 of the past 15. Western teams were 24-16 straight-up, but only 19-21 ATS vs. eastern teams in 2019.
Arch points out that western teams are 200-114-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2019 and 166-146-4 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches.
I finished 43-41-2 in Arch's 2019 ATS pool: 20-15-2 road underdogs, 10-10 home overdogs, 8-9 home underdogs and 5-7 road overdogs.
I am 52.3% over 11 years picking CFL winners ATS 2009 to 2019. I have had only 3 losing CFL years ATS out of 11. However, I am trailing behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53.1% over 2009-2019. 2014 was the only year during this period when CFL underdogs had a losing year ATS.
Thursday, March 28, 2019
Major League Baseball (MLB) Inter-league: 2019 Recap
The surest outcome in sports had been that American League (AL) teams will win the majority of inter-league matches against their National League (NL) opponents. The AL had 14 consecutive triumphs over the National League (NL) from 2004 through 2017.
But, the NL won 2018 with a 159-147 record including World Series (WS) and All-Star matches. 2018 marked the NL's 1st inter-league triumph since 2003.
We may well look back on the AL's 2017 triumph as the end of AL dominance and at the NL's 2018 victory as the start of a new era of inter-league parity or perhaps even NL dominance?
I was wrong to stick with my faith in the AL and pick all AL squads over all NL teams in all 2019 inter-league matches.
In 2019, the NL had its best year ever spanking the AL 169-139 or 55% to 45% after including the AL's triumph in the All-Star match and NL's 4-3 World Series victory. We are witnessing a changing of the guard in the inter-league rivalry with the NL now top dog.
Despite this sign of newfound NL superiority, it may still be worth noting that the AL representative has won 21 of the past 36 World Series. However, I was wrong sticking with AL HOUSTON over NL washington in the 2019 World Series.
AL has won 7 all-star matches in a row, 19 of the last 22 to reach a decision and 25 of the last 31. AL stars still shining brighter.
But, the NL won 2018 with a 159-147 record including World Series (WS) and All-Star matches. 2018 marked the NL's 1st inter-league triumph since 2003.
We may well look back on the AL's 2017 triumph as the end of AL dominance and at the NL's 2018 victory as the start of a new era of inter-league parity or perhaps even NL dominance?
I was wrong to stick with my faith in the AL and pick all AL squads over all NL teams in all 2019 inter-league matches.
In 2019, the NL had its best year ever spanking the AL 169-139 or 55% to 45% after including the AL's triumph in the All-Star match and NL's 4-3 World Series victory. We are witnessing a changing of the guard in the inter-league rivalry with the NL now top dog.
Despite this sign of newfound NL superiority, it may still be worth noting that the AL representative has won 21 of the past 36 World Series. However, I was wrong sticking with AL HOUSTON over NL washington in the 2019 World Series.
AL has won 7 all-star matches in a row, 19 of the last 22 to reach a decision and 25 of the last 31. AL stars still shining brighter.
Tuesday, March 19, 2019
NCAA March Madness 2019 Recap ATS
Official Godiva toy boy and fiancé Archibald organizes a friendly, non-profit office pool for the NCAA men's tourney. Instead of picking bracket winners, players in dearest Arch's pool pick winners against the spread (ATS) each and every day as the tournament unfolds. The winner of his winner-take-all pool is the contestant who picks the most winners against the spread over 67 matches including the first 4 play-in games. All matches are weighted equally.
I rely on economists' studies showing that heavy underdogs win more than their fair share of college basketball games against the point spread, while "non-heavy" overdogs win slightly more than 50% (although this particular result is not statistically significant).
I finished 31-36 = 24-29 "light" overdog favourites, 7-6 heavy underdogs with more than 12 points and 0-1 taking light underdog Texas Tech +1 over Viriginia in the final based on adapting Professor Leavitt's advice about picking the underdog in the Super Bowl when that is the only match on the board.
After 12 years since 2008 of swimming naked (of roundball knowledge) in Archibald's pool, I am below even-steven at 374-386-15. Clearly, no evidence that I have a good system for picking March madness winners ATS.
By picking all overdogs in every NCAA tournament game for the past decade, you would be sporting a 380-380-15 record ATS. The point spreads have done the job designed by the oddsmakers anticipating the bettors.
Lady G vs. Baracketer-in-Chief
Former President Obama picks winners straight-up with no point line for each bracket and round.
Obama got UNC right as the 2009 and 2017 winner. After a tough time in 2010 and 2011 with none of his final 4 picks coming through, he correctly picked 5 of the elite 8 in 2013 and 2014 as well as 6 of 8 in 2012 and 2015. Not too shabby. In 2017, he picked 10 of the sweet 16. In 2018, the Baracketer was way off along almost everyone else. This year, he got 12 right of the sweet 16 and 4 right of the elite 8. But, the Baracketer was wrong along with many others with his pick that Duke would win the title
When he picks upsets in the early rounds, I can identify games where Lady Godiva and the Baracketer-in-Chief disagree. In 11 years through 2019, I am 39-42-1 womano-a-mano against the Baracketer. I was a lowly 3-6 vs. the Baracketer this year.
Speaking of mano-a-womano, kudos to the former President for also picking the women's NCAA brackets.
I rely on economists' studies showing that heavy underdogs win more than their fair share of college basketball games against the point spread, while "non-heavy" overdogs win slightly more than 50% (although this particular result is not statistically significant).
I finished 31-36 = 24-29 "light" overdog favourites, 7-6 heavy underdogs with more than 12 points and 0-1 taking light underdog Texas Tech +1 over Viriginia in the final based on adapting Professor Leavitt's advice about picking the underdog in the Super Bowl when that is the only match on the board.
After 12 years since 2008 of swimming naked (of roundball knowledge) in Archibald's pool, I am below even-steven at 374-386-15. Clearly, no evidence that I have a good system for picking March madness winners ATS.
By picking all overdogs in every NCAA tournament game for the past decade, you would be sporting a 380-380-15 record ATS. The point spreads have done the job designed by the oddsmakers anticipating the bettors.
Lady G vs. Baracketer-in-Chief
Former President Obama picks winners straight-up with no point line for each bracket and round.
Obama got UNC right as the 2009 and 2017 winner. After a tough time in 2010 and 2011 with none of his final 4 picks coming through, he correctly picked 5 of the elite 8 in 2013 and 2014 as well as 6 of 8 in 2012 and 2015. Not too shabby. In 2017, he picked 10 of the sweet 16. In 2018, the Baracketer was way off along almost everyone else. This year, he got 12 right of the sweet 16 and 4 right of the elite 8. But, the Baracketer was wrong along with many others with his pick that Duke would win the title
When he picks upsets in the early rounds, I can identify games where Lady Godiva and the Baracketer-in-Chief disagree. In 11 years through 2019, I am 39-42-1 womano-a-mano against the Baracketer. I was a lowly 3-6 vs. the Baracketer this year.
Speaking of mano-a-womano, kudos to the former President for also picking the women's NCAA brackets.
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