Friday, April 17, 2009

NBA Playoffs Game 1 Picks

Just for fun (and it's always about fun, never money, since you can't make money consistently picking winners against the point spread), I'm following a strategy based on a Stanford undergraduate essay.

Based on the statistically not significant part of the strategy, I recommend giving the points and taking all overdog favourites against the point lines in game 1.

Check back with my blog as the playoffs unfold and I will discuss the statistically significant part of the Gibbs plan.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

NCAA Wrap-Up

Baracketer-in-Chief Obama and I correctly picked UNC.

Kudos to the President for picking UNC to win right at the start of the tournament. I just went along round-by-round backing UNC against the points except when they were heavily favoured in round 1. But, I am proud of finishing 5-3 against the President giving him the points in games when I disagreed with his straight-up bracket selections.

Overall, I finished 34-29-1 or 54%. Over two years of following my system in March madness match-ups, I have picked 56% winners against the spread (ATS).

Before falling in love with my genius, note that a plain-vanilla, all-overdogs strategy is 60% ATS over the last two NCAA tournaments.

NBA Update

I am now 51-45-2 or 53% following the Gibbs system of taking all "heavy" underdogs.


I won't be active on this site until inter-league baseball starts. I have a very simple system to advise participants in season-long, non-profit pools with points based on posted odds.

Farewell to my friends at I'm not happy with the changes at this site and won't be wasting my time there anymore. But, I am still a member of the community.