NFL against the spread (ATS) 2026

More than 20 years ago, Professor Steven Levitt argued that gamblers systematically undervalue National Football League (NFL) underdogs. 

Underdogs had a >50% ATS record in 26 of the past 34 regular seasons through 2025-26.

I will keep track of the all-underdogs ATS record for the NFL 2026-2027 season 

15% of matches were reversed on points against the spread (ATS) in each of the past 3 seasons -- below the long-term trend established over the previous 3 decades. 

So, it is possible that the prior misperception may no longer be there in the betting market that overdog favorites will win by larger margins than turn out to be the case. 

Underdogs only won 2025-26 ATS by winning a higher-than-expected % of matches outright.

Based on what seemed like regularities in place up until 2022-23, I expect underdogs to win a bit more than 1/3 of all matches straight-up and a bit more than 1/6 of all matches on points. 

Are the unusual results of the past 3 seasons just short-term random walks around long-term averages? Or has the underdog-tilt identified by Professor Steven Levitt vanished? We will need a few more seasons to reach a conclusion. 

I stuck with regular-season underdogs in 2025-26 in the just-for-fun pool that Godiva boy toy Archibald introduced me to. Because most pool players back overdog favorites, I finished 1st out of 54 players in Archibald's pool. 

I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS was not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicitly built into odds offered by gambling houses. 

Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for customers, but not workers, and that 21st century gambling is not much fun over the long run for almost all customers. 

CFL 2026: ATS picks week 15

I am picking all 4 underdogs against the spread (ATS) this week.

After 14 weeks, I am 27-27 ATS = 4-7 home underdogs, 7-5 home overdogs, 2-5 road overdogs and 14-10 road underdogs. Simple all-underdog and all-road strategies are both 28-26.

Godiva toy boy  Archibald points out that western teams are now 308-204-4 or 60% straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2026 including Grey Cups and other playoff games. In 2026 the west is 18-10 against the east straight-up and 13-15 ATS. Archibald's prediction looks gooder and gooder that that the 4th place western team will cross over to the eastern playoffs with a better record than 3rd in the east.

The west was 27-15 straight-up last year in 2025 including Winterpeg's loss to MONTREAL in the eastern semi-final and Sasquatchewan's Grey Cup victory. SASquatchEWAN was 8-1 v. the east in 2025 and is 4-2 so far in 2026.

However, in 2024, east bested west 23-16-2 after winning in 2023 as well. 

The east won 3 straight Grey Cups from 2022 through 2024. But, the west has won 12 of the past 19 Grey Cups. I am proud, albeit insignificantly statistically proud, to be 11-5 ATS picking the past 16 Grey Cups, although I admit to losing the past 3 before winning 2025. 

I am 51% over 15 years picking Canadian Football League (CFL) winners ATS from 2009 on through 2026. (I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 52% from 2009-2026. 2023 was the first year since 2014 for CFL underdogs to record a losing year ATS. 2023 was my worst year ever by far and my 2nd consecutive losing year. 

Arch is too busy with his new hobby to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks are just for fun now. 

Apologies to loyal Godivans for not yet updating my 2024 records ATS. Chaos caused by doesn't-deserve-me Godiva toy boy and and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald preventing me from keeping up during the regular season. And, I have been so caught up helping Godiva toy boy and permanent fiance Arch with his substacking that I still haven't had time to update my CFL picking record for 2025. 

Major League Baseball (MLB) 2026 interleague: NL dominating

In the 2026 chapter of Major League Baseball's (MLB's) interleague rivalry, National League teams (NL) are schooling American League (AL) teams 358 wins to 311 (53.5%) even after including the AL's victory in the all-star match. In 2026, the NL is on track to record a decisive interleague season triumph on par with the NL's 53.6% in 2024.

The AL's collective mark in interleague regular season matches is -48. As a result, only 5 of 15 AL squads have winning interleague records so far this year -- BoSox, NY Yankees, TBay, Cleveland and Texas. Only 6 of 15 AL teams have winning overall records -- the 1st 4 listed in the previous sentence + ChiSox + Houston. Cleveland holds the final AL playoff spot with an overall record of 50.7% or +2 in wins v. losses.

Even the once-dominant AL East is having a sub-par year at 52% (115-105) in matches against NL squads -- down from 55.5% in 2025.

After 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017, the NL won the inter-league contest for 5 of 7 seasons starting with 2018 through 2024. The AL got back on top in 2025. The AL owns a slight advantage with a 51% winning record over 30 years since interleague regular season play started in 1997. 

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements shrank over the years thanks to: 

• the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-skirt executives who started with AL squads before crossing over to manage NL teams;
• the effects of age on AL owners no longer content to hire the best baseball minds and stay out of the way -- e.g., sad decline of the Red Sox as John Henry ages into his dotage taking the BoSox down with him. Of course, just as I picked on the Red Sox as the poster boy for AL decline, the BoSox tied their franchise record with a 15-game winning streak and soon afterward put together a 9-game streak. 

The AL's remaining claim to superiority is winning 11 of the past 13 All-Star contests, 23 of the last 28 to reach a decision and 29 of the past 37. 

After decades of AL superiority in the World Series, the NL has won 5 of the last 7 with Los Dodgers winning 3 of the last 5. Over the last 2 decades from 2006-2025, the NL is ahead 12-8. From 1983 through 2005, the AL won 15 of 22 World Series championships.

None of this information is useful for betting purposes. Gambling odds are almost never fair for gamblers. For the vast majority, it's not possible to earn a long-term profit gambling. Online sports betting is the new House of the Rising Sun: "It's been the ruin of many a poor boy. And, God I know that my ex-toy boy is one."