Friday, September 5, 2008

NFL 2008 Week 1 Picks

I'm sorry to report starting with a road underdog loss picking Washington over NY GIANTS in the season kickoff game. Fortunately, I've got 15 more games in week 1 to start the year off right.

This year, I'm sticking closely with home underdogs unless I see a strong reason to deviate from that tried-and-tested strategy. Historical data show that backing home underdogs is the best single strategy for any NFL pool picker. Even last year when underdogs as a whole had a rare losing year at 48%, home underdogs finished a notch above 50% at 46-45-1. So, I would advise players in friendly, non-profit NFL pools to take all 7 home underdogs this week.

MIAMI +3 over NY Jets
TENNESSEE +3 over Jaxonville
ATLANTA +3 over Detroit
CLEVELAND +5.5 over Dallas
SAN FRAN +2.5 over Arizona
OAKLAND +3 over Denver
BALTIMORE +1.5 over Cinci

Road underdogs finish above 50% most years, but not always as I learned to my sorrow last year. I'm treating last year as a random variation from the normal trend until I see clear evidence otherwise. Nevertheless, in week 1, I am recommending only 3 road underdogs:

Seattle +1 over Buffalo
St. Lou +7.5 over PHILLY
Houston +6.5 over PITTSBURGH

So, that leaves 5 home overdogs:

NE -15.5 over kc
NO -3 over tb
SD -9 over Carolina
INDY -9.5 over Chicago
GB -2.5 over Minnie

Time permitting I will report next week on toy boy Archibald's how-not-to guide for visiting NY City. The more time I spend with dear Archibald, the more it is clear that he's just a pretty face with nothing behind it – just like all my previous boyfriends. It's a good thing for Archibald that he's prettier than the rest.