NFL Picks ATS: 2022-3 Recap

I successfully picked underdog kc +1 over philly in Super Bowl LVII.  

I finished 7-6 against the spread (ATS) with my 2023 playoff picks: 4-4 road underdogs, 1-1 home underdogs, 1-1 home overdogs and 1-0 in the Super Bowl.

The divisional round is the only time I ever pick overdog favourites based on TMQ Gregg Easterbrook's insight that the top seeds coming off a bye win 3/4 of their divisional round games straight-up. My guess is that the point spreads may not completely capture top seed dominance.  

For the 2022-3 National Football League (NFL) regular season, underdogs finished 140-121-9 or 53.5%  ATS.  

55-44-4 home underdogs -- historically the best bet in sports, but not good enough over the long run to make a profit large enough to overcome the commission charged by gambling houses. 

85-77-5 road underdogs. 

Toy boy Archibald has retired his NFL ATS pool due to volunteer work taking up all his time even to the point of neglecting me. 

With Arch barely in my life, (and even more barely barely, if you know what I mean, nudge nudge wink wink) I joined another pool and picked all underdogs all year long. A simple all-underdogs strategy has now recorded 25 winning regular seasons over the past 31, a track record  significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's catch-phrases). I finished 3rd out of 65 players in the pool.

This strategy is based on the persuasive case from Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame that NFL bettors would do better if they realized that underdogs consistently best overdogs ATS and that the Super Bowl underdog is the best bet of the year. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html

MLB Inter-league 2022: AL Rules

I correctly predicted that the Houston Cheatros would defeat the Philly Phillies in the 2022 World Series (WS).

American League (AL) teams defeated National League (NL) teams 157 -150 (51.1% to 48.9%) in the 2022 instalment of the Major League Baseball (MLB) inter-league rivalry including All-Star and WS matches. The AL has won 9 all-star contests in a row, 21 of the last 24 to reach a decision and 27 of the last 33.  

The NL won the inter-league season-series 3 consecutive years from 2018 through 2020 after 14 consecutive AL triumphs from 2004 through 2017. AL has now won 16 of the last 19 seasons. 

NL teams have at least done better in 2022 than their 44.625% record in 2021 (including World Series and All-Star matches). Last year's AL victory depended on the mighty mighty AL East's inter-league mastery -- 64% in 2021. But, the AL East is down to a 56% success rate in 2022. 

The "brain gap" between AL and NL team managements has shrunk thanks to the brain drain of smarty-pants and smarty-dress executives who started in AL organizations and have crossed over to manage NL teams. 

CFL 2022 Recap: Picks ATS

I was wrong picking against the spread (ATS) WINterPEG -5.5 over TORONTO. However, I am still proud, albeit insignificant statistically, to be 10-3 ATS picking the past 13 Grey Cups.   

For the 2022 season including playoffs, I finished 39-46-1 ATS: 23-13 with my road underdog picks, 3-16-1 home underdogs, 4-10 road overdogs and 9-7 home overdogs. 2022 was only my 4th losing CFL year ATS out of 13. Road teams ruled 2022 at 50-35-1 ATS. 

I am 52% over 13 years picking CFL winners ATS from 2009 on. (Recall that the Canadian Football League [CFL] cancelled their 2020 season, so there have been only 13 seasons from 2009 through 2022.) I have had only 4 losing CFL years out of 13. I do not do well enough to make a profit betting CFL games with real money, but every now and then my picks should be good enough to win a small, just-for-fun CFL season-long pool. However, I trail behind a simple all-underdogs strategy at 53% from 2009-2022. 2014 was the only year during this period when CFL underdogs had a losing year ATS.

Godiva toy boy and fiance-in-perpetuity Archibald points out that western teams are 234-137-2 straight-up against eastern teams from 2012 through 2022 and 193-176-4 ATS including Grey Cups and other playoff matches. In 2022, the west was 20-12 straight-up, but 14-18 ATS. The west has won 6 of the last 9 Grey Cups and 11 of the past 17.

Arch's buddy Taxi Steve brought to my attention the fact that Toronto has won its last 7 Grey Cup appearances, has not lost the CFL final since 1987 and boasts a 25-13 Grey Cup record (including all Toronto-based teams). 2022 was Winterpeg's 30th Grey Cup appearance; 12 victories and 18 losses.

Arch was too busy this year to maintain his CFL ATS pool, so my picks were just for fun, which was lucky for me. 

Aaron Rodgers: "Yeah, I'm immunized"

 against play-off success