NFL Picks ATS: 2024-5 Recap

Gratified to correctly pick against the spread (ATS) in Super Bowl LIX:

PHILLY +1 over KC swifties 

Professor Steven Levitt argued that the Super Bowl (SB) underdog is the single best bet in sports. We won't know if he's right for another CMXLI years.

I finished 8-4-1 ATS in playoffs = 5-1 wild card round + 2-1-1 divisional round + 0-2 conference champs + 1-0 SB = 1-3-1 road underdogs, 3-0 home underdogs and 3-1 home overdogs. 

I kept track of the all-underdogs record for the entire National Football League (NFL) 2024-5 season including playoffs. Underdogs finished 121-147-4 against the spread (ATS) or 45% = 75-90-2 road underdogs and 46-57-2 homie doggies. As a result, I finished dead last in the one ATS season-long pool I swim in.  

Over many decades, NFL home underdogs were the best bet in sports -- but not this year or last. Home underdogs went 9-21 ATS over weeks 5-9. Home underdogs went 47-51-5 in 2023-2024 including playoffs. 

 A simple all-underdogs strategy has recorded 25 winning NFL regular seasons over the past 33 against the spread (ATS), a track record significant to statheads (to borrow one of toy boy Archibald's catch-phrases). 

Underdogs lost the NFL regular season ATS for the 2nd consecutive year. If anyone knows when is the last time that happened, I would be glad to know. And, has there ever been a worse underdog ATS winning % than 45% this year?

Have bettors finally twigged to the fact that they overestimated overdog favorites for years through 2022-23? It's possible. I expect underdogs to win a bit more than 1/3 of all matches straight-up and a bit more than 1/6 of all matches on points. Over the past two years, underdogs have won a bit less than 1/6 of all matches on points and bit less than 1/3  of all matches straight-up. Are the unusual results of the past 2 years just a short-term random walk around the long-term average? Or has the underdog-tilt identified by Steven Levitt vanished? We will need a few more seasons to reach a conclusion. In the meantime, I will stick with regular-season underdogs in 2025. I will not abandon my all-underdogs regular season strategy just because of two consecutive bad years.

I should say that the all-underdog long-term winning % ATS is not high enough to make a living against the small commissions implicity built into odds offered by gambling houses. 

Sports betting is the House of the Rising Sun of the 3rd millenium: "the ruin of many a poor boy". Dare I say that the 19th century House of the Rising Sun was more fun for customers, but not workers.

NFL Picks ATS: 2022-3 Recap

I successfully picked underdog kc +1 over philly in Super Bowl LVII.  

I finished 7-6 against the spread (ATS) with my 2023 playoff picks: 4-4 road underdogs, 1-1 home underdogs, 1-1 home overdogs and 1-0 in the Super Bowl.

The divisional round is the only time I ever pick overdog favourites based on TMQ Gregg Easterbrook's insight that the top seeds coming off a bye win 3/4 of their divisional round games straight-up. My guess is that the point spreads may not completely capture top seed dominance.  

For the 2022-3 National Football League (NFL) regular season, underdogs finished 140-121-9 or 53.5%  ATS.  

55-44-4 home underdogs -- historically the best bet in sports, but not good enough over the long run to make a profit large enough to overcome the commission charged by gambling houses. 

85-77-5 road underdogs. 

Toy boy Archibald has retired his NFL ATS pool due to volunteer work taking up all his time even to the point of neglecting me. 

With Arch barely in my life, (and even more barely barely, if you know what I mean, nudge nudge wink wink) I joined another pool and picked all underdogs all year long. A simple all-underdogs strategy has now recorded 25 winning regular seasons over the past 31, a track record  significant to statheads (to borrow one of Arch's catch-phrases). I finished 3rd out of 65 players in the pool.

This strategy is based on the persuasive case from Professor Steven Levitt of Freakonomics fame that NFL bettors would do better if they realized that underdogs consistently best overdogs ATS and that the Super Bowl underdog is the best bet of the year. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/magazine/dissecting-the-line.html